2 Best MLB NRFI Bets on Thursday 6/12/25

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Betting Picks for Today

Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-132)

Starting pitchers Andrew Heaney and Jameson Taillon both tend to perform at their best the first time through the order, and these offenses haven't been ones to shy away from for NRFIs. The Chicago Cubs are tied for 16th in YRFI rate (27.9%) and are 14th in first-inning runs per game (0.54). The Pittsburgh Pirates are 19th in YRFI rate (27.5%) and 29th in first-inning runs per game (0.32).

Of course, the Cubs have been one of the league's top overall offenses this season, so they're the scarier of the two sides despite their neutral first-inning results so far. However, Pittsburgh's Heaney has a rock-solid 3.29 xFIP, 23.1% strikeout rate, and 5.1% walk rate the first time through the order (28.3% K rate in the first inning), and he's logged a scoreless first inning in 9 of 13 starts.

Despite an improved 1.12 HR/9 this season, the long ball is always the biggest worry when it comes to Heaney, but tonight's forecast could give him an assist in that department. Temperatures are expected to be in the 60s and the wind will be blowing in from left at roughly 11 mph, lessening the chance of a solo shot ruining this bet in one swing.

Taillon will have the easier task against the Pirates, and much like Heaney, he's shows better marks the first time through the order. In that split, the veteran righty owns a 3.99 xFIP, 23.1% strikeout rate, and 5.1% walk rate, and if we look at just the opening frame, he's produced a nasty 36.2% K rate. Home runs have been a major issue for Taillon in 2025, yet he's allowed one earned run in the first inning all year. He will also benefit from the cooler conditions at Wrigley Field tonight.

Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-128)

Along with our previous matchup, this one is tied for the day's lowest total (7.5), making this another ideal spot to seek out a NRFI.

The Chicago White Sox are roughly average in YRFI rate (30.9%), but they haven't been a particularly good offense overall this season, so this clip will likely trend downward as the season goes. In any case, it's easy to get behind southpaw Framber Valdez to open this game with a scoreless inning, as his elite ground-ball rate (58.9%) and above-average K rate (25.1%) have helped him limit opponents to just 0.64 HR/9. While he had a rocky stretch where he allowed first-inning runs in three straight starts, he's since settled down and allowed first-inning runs in just one of the last six outings.

Chicago starter Davis Martin is the meh side of this equation, but that's where the Houston Astros' bats come into play. No team is worse at scoring first-inning runs than Houston, a team that ranks last in YRFI rate (17.9%), first-inning runs per game (0.27), and first-inning xwOBA (.265). Even with Martin generally having uninspiring numbers, he has positive marks in walk rate (5.5%) and ground-ball rate (47.1%), which has contributed to him allowing runs in only 4 of 12 first innings.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.