2 Best MLB NRFI Bets on Monday 6/23/25

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Betting Picks for Today

Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (+102)

Targeting a NRFI in a game with a 9.5 total might be a bit scary, but that's also why we're getting plus odds. While wind shouldn't have an impact at Camden Yards, temperatures could near 100 degrees, giving a clear advantage for hitters. Lefty starters Patrick Corbin and Trevor Rogers will have their work cut out for them tonight.

However, the Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles haven't exactly been crushing at the plate this season, and that includes modest first-inning production. Texas is 24th in YRFI rate (25.6%) while Baltimore is 20th (27.3%).

Both squads have been particularly weak against southpaws, too. In this split, the Rangers' active roster is 27th in wRC+ (79) and 24th in ISO (.118). The Orioles are 26th (83 wRC+) and 30th (0.99) in those categories.

As for the pitchers, those names might not immediately ooze confidence, but there are reasons for optimism.

While Rogers has made just two starts thus far, he's logged a promising 2.79 xERA, 24.3% strikeout rate, and 8.1% walk rate over 8 2/3 innings and has produced a pair of scoreless first innings. A down year from Rangers No. 3 hitter Corey Seager should also aid Rogers, as Seager has struggled far more in lefty-lefty matchups compared to years past with a 31.0% strikeout rate.

Corbin has well exceeded expectations this season with a 3.91 ERA, and while that ERA figures to creep closer to his 4.34 xERA, he hasn't been the complete disaster we had grown accustomed to in recent campaigns. In fact, he's recorded a NRFI in 11 of 13 starts. The veteran southpaw projects to face two lefties in the first inning -- Jackson Holliday and Gunnar Henderson -- and both players have had a rough go in same-handed matchups. Against left-handers, Holliday has a 31.3% K rate and Henderson is at 28.9%.

Despite the risks, there could be value in targeting this matchup for a NRFI.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-108)

On a day with high temperatures bumping up a lot of over/unders, we're getting a reasonable 8.5 total between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field, which has a retractable roof and pitcher-friendly park factor.

While the Brewers' bats have been heating up over a four-game win streak, this remains a team that's 27th in YRFI rate (24.4%), 22nd in first-inning wRC+ (97), and 25th in first-inning xwOBA (.312). This should give us far more confidence in backing Braxton Ashcraft in his first MLB start.

Since getting called up from Triple-A in May, Ashcraft has enjoyed positive results as a reliever, producing a 3.48 xERA over 7 appearances and 11 2/3 innings. While he hasn't logged a notable strikeout rate (20.4%), strong marks in ground-ball rate (51.5%) and hard-hit rate (24.2%) are encouraging. Despite mixed results in the minors before his call-up, projection systems on FanGraphs generally view him as a pitcher with an ERA right around 4.00.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee starter Chad Patrick should be able to do his part versus Pittsburgh's lineup. The Pirates have one of MLB's worst offenses, so it's no surprise to see them at the very bottom in first-inning runs per game (0.32). Patrick is roughly a league-average pitcher but has converted a NRFI in 12 of 15 starts.

This looks like one of the better spots for a NRFI, and it comes at a good price, as well.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.