World Cup Group Stage Betting Guide: Bets to Make Ahead of the 2026 World Cup

The World Cup is approaching quickly, and FanDuel Sportsbook's World Cup odds offer a variety of ways to get in on the action.

Let's focus on the group stage.

By comparing the current 2026 World Cup market on FanDuel to the betting results from 2018 and 2022, several teams already stand out as potential values, fades, or live longshots entering the tournament. Let's dig in.

Betting odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook's World Cup odds and are subject to change after this article is published.

Check out all of our 2026 World Cup content.

World Cup Betting Advice

Top Teams -- The Chalk

Spain

(+430) to win World Cup | (-310) to win Group H | (-7000) to advance to knockouts

The 2026 World Cup favorite, Spain, has the cleanest early schedule of any title favorite in the tournament. Both released Group H matches for the Spanish fall into the (-300) or shorter favorite bucket, which hit at 81.3% historically. That matters for single-game 1x2 betting. It matters less for futures.

The useful futures angle here is that Spain is priced like a team expected to take 6 points before the market even gets to its 3rd group match. Their first 2 unlucky opponents, Cape Verde (+2500) and Saudi Arabia (+1500), both sit in the extreme longshot range, which has historically housed upside despite a very low win rate. You don't need many wins to overcome the losses at those prices. The draw prices are (+850) and (+650), respectively, both in the historically toxic (+400) or longer draw bucket. If you want to bet on Spain not winning either of these matches, you can take the underdog to win. There is much more historical value there than in playing it safe with a draw bet.

Spain’s futures profile is backed by the 1x2 board. There is no hidden market concern in the group stage. Spain’s implied title probability is roughly 18.9%. That is steep, but their implied odds to advance past the group stage are 98.6%, so you're really betting on Spain to rattle off wins in 5 consecutive elimination matches.

France

(+470) to win World Cup | (-180) to win Group I | (-7000) to advance to knockouts

France is right behind Spain as a main tournament favorite, but their first released Group I game sits in the favorite danger zone. France (-240) against Senegal falls into the (-299) to (-200) bucket, which went just 11-10 with a -24.9% ROI across the last 2 World Cups. France is certainly a great team, but we've seen many great teams fail to get the job done in similar scenarios in the past. This is the exact range where the market tends to overestimate the favorite’s control.

The futures market loves France. They are (-7000) to advance out of the group, the same as Spain in Group H. FanDuel is treating the group-stage floor as nearly untouchable for the French, but their win-group price of (-180) is not as suffocating as Spain’s (-310) or Argentina’s (-250). That makes sense as Senegal is not a pushover and, in fact, is quite the upset candidate. Norway is also sitting at (+250) to win the group and (-650) to advance.

The single-game favorites trend makes us less excited about laying France at (-240) in the opener, but the betting angles will be abundant if they drop that first one. If France handles Senegal, the Group I market hardens fast. This is a top-tier French team with title aspirations in a group with enough resistance to create a better futures-betting conversation than their match moneyline does.

England

(+650) to win World Cup | (-240) to win Group L | (-7000) to advance to knockouts

England’s outlook has a sneaky, strong-bucket profile. The Croatia match falls into the (-149) to (-110) favorite bucket, which has been the best favorite range historically, with a 70.8% hit rate and +27.2% ROI over the past 128 World Cup matches. This suggests the market may have historically underpriced narrow favorites in the past. Could Croatia be getting a little too much credit here?

After Croatia, England gets Ghana at (-320), landing in the (-300) or shorter bucket. That bucket won often but did not do well in terms of ROI. The opposite, in fact. For futures, a high win probability is still valuable because it supports group control and the real possibility of relatively easier matchups in the Rounds of 32 and 16. England is (-240) to win Group L and (-7000) to advance, so FanDuel is valuing them as close to automatic to reach the knockout stage (98.6% implied odds).

The risk is Croatia in that opener. This is not a weak 2nd team, and their analogs have performed well historically in this spot. If England wins that opener, the path to the group title gets clean in a hurry. From a futures perspective, England’s first 2 games offer a stronger setup than France’s because the historical bucket profile is more favorable and the price is nearly identical.

Brazil

(+750) to win World Cup | (-280) to win Group C | (-7000) to advance to knockouts

While not the pre-tournament favorite at this World Cup, you know Brazil is never far out of the picture. On futures alone, Brazil looks like a classic top-tier power. They're (+750) to win it all and (-280) to win Group C. But their first released match is Morocco, and Brazil at (-185) falls into that dreaded (-199) to (-150) favorite bucket. That bucket was nearly break-even from a win-rate standpoint over the past 2 World Cups, which equated to a poor ROI. On the flip side, Morocco at (+500) lands in the longshot 'dog bucket that historically delivered well.

That is a real tension point. Morocco is only (+450) to win Group C, but they are (-800) to advance, so the futures market is respecting them. They are being priced as a strong knockout-stage candidate despite being a big underdog against Brazil. Is Brazil that good, or are they the beneficiary of a little name-recognition bias? In my eyes, Brazil’s group futures are more fragile than Spain’s or England’s, even though they still deserve to be categorized as elite.

Brazil can absolutely win this group and has a great shot to do so. The market says they should. But the first-match setup is not easy. If Morocco is live enough to advance at (-800), they are live enough to make Brazil work for it. Brazil’s title odds are more attractive than Spain’s on payout, but the early group board carries more upset risk and the very real possibility of a tough path through the Rounds of 32 and 16.

Argentina

(+850) to win World Cup | (-250) to win Group J | (-7000) to advance to knockouts

Argentina has 2 different kinds of early risk. The Algeria match sits in the (-299) to (-200) danger bucket for favorites. The Austria match then sits in the (-199) to (-150) bucket, which was close to an even ROI. That means neither released match gives Argentina the clean historical bucket profile that England gets against Croatia, or Japan gets against Tunisia.

Still, the implied futures odds are strong and speak highly of this Argentine squad. Argentina is (-250) to win Group J and (-7000) to advance through it to the Round of 32. The concern is that both Austria and Algeria are credible enough to create group-stage drag for the Argentines. Austria is (-450) to advance. Algeria is (-310). Group J is not a 1-team group.

The single-game board tells us Argentina’s path has less cushion than Spain’s. It also tells us their (+850) title price may be more reasonable than the shorter favorites because the market is baking in at least some group-stage resistance. Argentina seems more valuable as a futures investment than as a straight 1x2 group-stage favorite.

Mid-Tier Championship Hopefuls

Germany

(+1100) to win World Cup | (-210) to win Group E | (-7000) to advance to knockouts

Germany has the weirdest 2-game profile on the board, which begins with their match against Curacao, the largest mismatch on the board by the current odds. Germany is (-5000), Curacao (+3300), and the draw (+1800). We don't have a ton of data to reference for when a team is this heavily favored in the World Cup. This is a product of the expanded 48-team field. Expect to see more group-stage mismatches like these in the future if the field remains at 48.

Germany's next match against Ivory Coast is expected to be a little more balanced but still features Germany at (-195), just outside the (-200) danger range for large favorites. Historically, that is better for Germany than if Ivory Coast were (+500) or longer, as the (+300) to (+499) 'dogs were the least profitable underdog tier over the past 128 World Cup matches.

Germany’s futures prices are interesting because they are (+1100) to win the tournament, which puts them in the 2nd tier of strong favorites, but still (-7000) to advance past Group E. The group-win price of (-210) is much shorter than the Netherlands’ (-120) and Portugal’s (-180), which reflects the Curacao boost. Germany's World Cup does not truly begin until the Round of 32. That is where we'll get our first glimpse at the true strength of this German team.

Portugal

(+1100) to win World Cup | (-180) to win Group K | (-7000) to advance to knockouts

Portugal’s path to the knockout rounds is relatively clean, sharing Group K with the Congo, Colombia, and Uzbekistan. The Congo match sits in the (-300) or shorter favorite bucket, a historical landmine, with Portugal (-425) to win the match and the draw at (+470). A

The reason Portugal’s group outlook is less overwhelming than Germany’s is because of Colombia. Portugal are (-180) to win Group K while Colombia are (+210) to upset Portugal and win the group and (-650) to advance to knockouts. That is a real 2-team structure. Congo is only (-140) to advance, and Uzbekistan is (+200), which in the to-advance market is quite long.

Portugal’s (+1100) World Cup title odds pair with a manageable first match and a group-win number that carries a greater than 50% implied probability. The single-game trend does not reveal much upset risk against Congo, but it also does not create an appealing bet signal. Colombia’s ability to apply pressure on Portugal in the group stage is the only threat keeping Portugal from a comfortable matchup in the Round of 32.

Netherlands

(+1900) to win World Cup | (-120) to win Group F | (-800) to advance to knockouts

The Netherlands is the best mid-tier stress test on the board. They are favored to win Group F, but the 1x2 odds highlight 2 tricky games right out of the gate. Netherlands is (-105) against Japan in the opener, which lands in the plus-money favorite bucket (a small historical loser). Japan at (+260), meanwhile, falls in the (+200) to (+299) 'dog bucket that has been good historically. We talk about Japan further down this list as a live underdog. In short, this does not bode well for the Dutch.

The Netherlands gets Sweden next at (-150), which lands in the (-199) to (-150) favorite bucket. Sweden is a (+360) 'dog, which is a far weaker underdog bucket historically than Japan's. That matchup is cleaner but not easy. Sweden is given (+400) odds to win the group and (-230) to advance to knockouts, so the oddsmakers see them as a legitimate threat in Group F.

This is why the Netherlands are only (-120) to win the group despite being (+1900) to win the World Cup. Their ceiling is real, but the group is tough. Japan (+260 to win the group, -310 to advance) is dangerous. Sweden is dangerous. Tunisia is not a complete pushover. The Netherlands’ futures profile has upside, but the first 2 match buckets do not offer the same comfort as Germany or even Portugal.

Longshots

Morocco

(+4000) to win World Cup | (+450) to win Group C | (-800) to advance to knockouts

Morocco is the cleanest live longshot in this list because the futures market and single-game bucket are telling 2 different stories at the same time.

In their opening group match against Brazil, Morocco is (+500) on the 1x2. That puts them in the (+500) or longer underdog bucket, the best bucket in the 2018-2022 sample.

But this is not Curacao (+3300), Cape Verde (+2500), or Saudi Arabia (+1500). Morocco is (-800) to advance to the knockouts. That is a futures-market tell. FanDuel is pricing them like a team very likely to reach the knockout round, yet the opener gives them a longshot upset profile because it's against Brazil.

Morocco does not need to beat Brazil to be a futures threat. A draw would still be valuable, but the draw bucket at (+310) has not been great historically. Those wanting to lean on Brazil's downfall can just take Morocco to beat Brazil straight up.

At (+4000) to win the World Cup, Morocco does not have the odds of a true title contender. But as a group-stage disruption team with a real knockout path, they are absolutely live.

Japan

(+5500) to win World Cup | (+260) to win Group F | (-310) to advance to knockouts

Japan might be the most interesting futures-vs-single match bucket team on the board. They are (+260) against the Netherlands in their first Group F game, which drops them into the (+200) to (+299) underdog bucket that hit historically well. Then, they are (-145) against Tunisia, landing just inside the best historical favorite bucket of (-149) to (-110).

Their futures profile backs up the idea that they are more than a cute group-stage story with odds of (+260) to win the group and (-310) to advance to knockouts. The Netherlands is only (-120) to win the group, and Sweden is at (+400). Group F is genuinely open.

Japan’s (+5500) championship number is long (it's the same exact number as the US right now), but the group market isn’t treating them like a longshot to survive. That is the kind of disconnect worth highlighting. A Japan win over the Netherlands would shake up Group F right away. Even a draw keeps Japan positioned well for a group win if they hold serve against Tunisia.

In short, there's a lot to like about Japan.

How to bet on the 2026 World Cup.

World Cup Betting FAQ

What is the most popular World Cup bet?

Outright winner (who lifts the trophy) is the most popular single futures market. Match-by-match, the moneyline is the most popular individual game bet, followed by total goals over/under.

Does a draw count in World Cup match betting?

Yes, in group stage betting, all three outcomes — home win, draw, away win — are valid results. In knockout stage betting, most markets apply to 90 minutes only, meaning a draw after 90 minutes is a valid result even if extra time and penalties determine the actual winner. Always check FanDuel's market description.

What happens to my bet if a match goes to extra time?

If you bet on a team to "win" the match on FanDuel and the game ends in a draw after 90 minutes, your bet typically loses (for moneyline bets) or voids (for draw no bet markets). The "to advance" market covers extra time and penalties and is a separate bet type.

When is the 2026 World Cup Final?

The final is scheduled for July 19 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Who is the favorite to win the 2026 World Cup?

Spain leads the betting board at +450 on FanDuel Sportsbook, followed by France at +550 and England at +650.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.