The Oklahoma City Thunder arrive in San Antonio on Thursday night one win away from their second consecutive NBA Finals appearance. The San Antonio Spurs, facing elimination at Frost Bank Center, are counting on a bounce-back performance from Victor Wembanyama after a 4-of-15 shooting night in Game 5. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock.

This Western Conference Finals has been one of the most entertaining playoff series in recent memory. The Spurs won an instant classic in double overtime in Game 1, with Victor Wembanyama posting 41 points and 24 rebounds — a performance that put his name alongside Wilt Chamberlain in the record books. Oklahoma City took Games 2 and 3 on their home floor, then San Antonio responded with a dominant 103-82 blowout in Game 4 to even the series. That brought us to Tuesday's Game 5, where Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 32 points, Alex Caruso added 22 off the bench, and the Thunder held Wembanyama to 20 points on 4-of-15 shooting to go up 3-2.

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Oklahoma City's defensive scheme has been built around taking Wembanyama out of his comfort zones. The Thunder rotate Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Alex Caruso as paint protectors and contest every catch in the post. In Games 2 and 3, OKC forced Wembanyama to attempt 12 threes combined after just two in Game 1. In Game 4, Wembanyama recognized the scheme and attacked the paint aggressively, resulting in 14 points at the rim and 33 total. In Game 5, OKC resumed their scheme and the Spurs' star reverted to perimeter shots, going 0-of-5 from three and missing enough mid-range looks to finish at 40.2% from the field as a team.

Spurs coach Mitch Johnson said directly after Game 5 that Wembanyama needs to take more than 15 shots and score more than 20 points in Game 6 for San Antonio to survive. That is the central question for this game.

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History is firmly on Oklahoma City's side here. The Thunder, specifically, are 6-0 in their franchise history when taking a 3-2 lead in a series that was previously tied 2-2. San Antonio's best argument against history is their own home court. The Spurs have won all but one of their home playoff games this year when Wembanyama finishes the game. The Spurs also have a 20-6 straight-up record this season when coming off a loss.

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San Antonio is set as a 3.5-point home favorite on FanDuel Sportsbook, with a game total of 219.5. The Spurs are favored almost entirely because of home-court advantage and the desperation narrative. This is only the seventh time all season the Thunder have been listed as road underdogs, and they are 2-1 against the spread in those scenarios. Jalen Williams' injury status at questionable is worth monitoring, but the Thunder have been without both Williams and Mitchell for the majority of this series and are still winning.

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