Home Run Predictions Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday, May 28, 2026

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Ronald Acuna Jr. (+360)
• Pete Alonso (+360)
• Oneil Cruz (+430)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Best Home Run Bets: HR Props and Picks for Today

Ronald Acuna Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+360)

Braves at Red Sox, 4:11 p.m. ET

Payton Tolle is an intriguing young lefty, but I'm still a fan of Ronald Acuna Jr.'s home run odds for today.

While Tolle sports a 27.1% strikeout rate over his brief career, he also allows a lot of fly-balls (47.4% fly-ball rate). Right-handed hitters have a huge 58.2% fly-ball rate against him this year.

Acuna has only two dingers this season, but his underlying metrics look strong, including a .366 expected wOBA that is way better than his actual wOBA of .318. Both his BABIP (.302) and homer-to-fly-ball rate (4.4%) are well below his career averages. He recorded a 23.1% home-run-to-fly-ball rate in 2025 and has a career average of 21.1%.

Due to hit more jacks and facing a lefty in a hitter-friendly park, Acuna is my favorite HR pick across today's afternoon games.

Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+360)

Blue Jays at Orioles, 6:36 p.m. ET

Pete Alonso is another right-handed slugger taking on a lefty today, and I think he can go yard against Patrick Corbin.

Corbin is getting good results for the Toronto Blue Jays, posting a 3.86 ERA, but it's mostly a smoke-and-mirrors act. His expected ERA sits at 5.37, and he's got a lowly 16.8% K rate. Righty bats are producing a .353 wOBA against him.

Alonso has hit 10 homers this season while generating a career-high 44.0% fly-ball rate. He's got a 46.0% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage and has a .359 wOBA in May, racking up two bombs and a .538 expected wOBA over his past 32 plate appearances.

In great form and facing a middling southpaw, Alonso is a quality dinger bet.

Oneil Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+430)

Cubs at Pirates, 6:41 p.m. ET

Oneil Cruz is appealing whenever he's up against a meh right-hander, and that's the case today.

The Pittsburgh Pirates will see RHP Colin Rea. Through 54 innings in 2026, Rea owns a 5.16 expected ERA with an 18.8% K rate. Lefties are having a field day against him, with Rea permitting a .354 wOBA in the split.

Cruz has elite raw power. Strikeouts are his biggest hurdle, but that's not as much of a worry today against Rea. He's posted a 45.8% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. A year ago, 19 of his 20 long-balls came with the platoon advantage.

Once Rea leaves the game, Cruz will go up against a Chicago Cubs bullpen that has let up the sixth-most homers per nine (1.23).

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.