Women's World Cup: Red-Hot Japan Headlines Saturday's 3-Match Slate

After a wild group stage, the knockout rounds of the Women's World Cup begin early Saturday morning (Eastern Time). Here's the full bracket.
There are three matches Saturday, with some of the better teams from the group stage taking the pitch. Here are the fixtures, with all World Cup odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook:
Time (Eastern) | Home | Away |
---|---|---|
1:00 AM | Switzerland (+520) | Spain (-800) |
4:00 AM | Japan (-290) | Norway (+225) |
10:00 PM | Netherlands (-1250) | South Africa (+710) |
Switzerland vs. Spain
Switzerland ended up topping Group A, but it's hard to say they were all that impressive. They won only their first game against the Philippines and ended up drawing the next two matches.
They scored just two goals in the group, both in said victory. Two 0-0 draws got them across the line to win their group, but the lack of goals is concerning. They were able to create just 0.1 expected goals (xG) -- per FBRef -- in their last game against New Zealand.
That was a bit of an outlier, though, as they had 4.1 xG across their first two matches. However, they did have an xG differential of just +2.0, the second-lowest for any group winner in the tournament.
The Swiss are considerable underdogs in this match against Spain, who had an interesting group stage themselves. They got tested in only one match -- against Japan -- and lost that one in stunning fashion, 4-0.
Spain didn't play nearly as badly as that scoreline suggests. They lost the xG battle just 0.9-0.7, as Japan ran really hot with their finishing.
The Spanish completely dominated their other two matches against inferior competition. They won both games by a combined 7-0 and had an xG differential of +8.6 in them. Those matches were against Costa Rica and Zambia. Switzerland is not as good as Japan, but they won't be as easy of a matchup for Spain as those other two games were.
The oddsmakers clearly think this will be a walkover for Spain. The Swiss didn't show enough in their games against New Zealand and Norway to inspire any confidence in this matchup. With how weak Switzerland's attack was last match, Spain to win and both teams not to score at +250 make a lot of sense in this game.
Japan vs. Norway
Japan was perhaps the World Cup's best team in the group stage. They won all three matches by a combined score of 11-0 and had an xG differential of 9.0.
They did benefit from shooting luck in the aforementioned match against Spain but also underperformed xG in their other two games. They had just 24% possession in that game versus Spain, something that is a bit of a worry moving forward.
Hinata Miyazawa is tied for the tournament lead with four goals. She enters the knockout rounds as the joint-favorite to win the Golden Boot, currently listed at +300. Mina Tanaka (+200 goal odds) has two goals in the tournament but has better anytime goal-scoring odds for this match than Miyazawa (+250) does.
Japan will face a Norway side that finally woke up when they needed to in their final group game. They beat the Philippines, 6-0, despite star striker Ada Hegerberg missing the match. Head coach Hege Riise says Hegerberg will be ready to play in this game.
Norway were very uninspiring in their first two matches. They didn't score a single goal and allowed 2.7 xG. Their overall xG differential of +3.7 is a bit inflated by that game against the Philippines, as they won the xG battle by +3.8 in that match.
It certainly is a boost to get Hegerberg back -- if she is fully fit. However, with the way Japan played in the group stage, Norway will have to do a lot to beat them. Given how sharp Japan's attackers have been, backing Tanaka (+200) or Miyazawa (+250) to score are both interesting bets.
Netherlands vs. South Africa
The Netherlands were runners-up in 2019 and have positioned themselves for another deep run this year.
After a 1-0 win against Portugal, they snapped the USA's 13-match winning streak in World Cups by drawing the Americans 1-1. They then took care of business against Vietnam, winning 7-0.
That allowed them to top the group and set them up with a match against South Africa (instead of Sweden, who the US play). The Netherlands had an xG differential of +5.5 through the group matches, which isn't too impressive when you consider that 4.5 of that was in the one match against Vietnam.
Jill Roord netted three goals in the group stage. She's not typically a prolific goal scorer from midfield, but she recently became Manchester City's most expensive signing and is an interesting player to keep an eye on.
South Africa were +850 to advance from the group at the beginning of the tournament. They lost their first match against Sweden but held on to draw against Argentina and shocked Italy in the last group match to qualify.
They played well in the match against Argentina and were ahead on xG 2.1-0.7 at the end of the game. Against Italy, they benefited from an own goal and gave away a penalty. The xG read 3.2-1.4 in favor of Italy, but the scoreboard said 3-2 South Africa after a 92nd-minute winner by Thembi Kgatlana.
South Africa have to be happy to make it this far, and this looks like the end of the line for them.
The Netherlands moneyline is a huge number (-1250), but you can combine it in a Same Game Parlay with under 3.5 goals to bring the odds down to -107.
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