Women's Final Four Betting: UConn vs. Iowa Picks, Prop Bets and Odds

Aidan McGrath
Aidan McGrath@ffaidanmcgrath

This Women's NCAA Tournament has been something else this year. Last Thursday's epic matchup between the LSU Tigers and the Iowa Hawkeyes drew a record-setting 12.3 million viewers -- more viewers than all but one of last year's five NBA Finals games, per ESPN.

At this point, Hawkeyes star Caitlin Clark essentially needs a separate Wikipedia page for the NCAA records she holds. She has averaged an insane 32 points per game this season and dropped a 40-burger over LSU in the biggest game of the year. With Clark leading the way, the Hawkeyes are just one win from a second consecutive National Championship Game appearance.

That said, they'll have to take on the battle-tested UConn Huskies before they can reach the final. The Huskies have had an absolutely brutal run through the tournament, taking down some of the top teams in the competition along the way. The already phenomenal Paige Bueckers has caught fire in the tournament and could give Clark a run for her money on the scoresheet on Friday.

So, how will this epic matchup go down? Will the Huskies crumble under the Hawkeyes' offensive onslaught, or will UConn get back to the title game for the second time in three years? Let's check in with FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and take a deep dive into this clash.

All college basketball odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook, and lines may change after this article is published.

NCAA Tournament Betting Picks

UConn vs. Iowa Betting Odds

Date and Time: Friday April 5th, 9:30 p.m. ET

Spread: Iowa -2.5 (-118)

Total: 162.5


  • UConn: +128
  • Iowa: -158

UConn vs. Iowa Statistical Breakdown


  • Defensive Efficiency Ranking: 79.6 (6th)
  • Offensive Efficiency Ranking: 112.0 (6th)
  • Tempo Ranking: 71.4 (127th)


  • Defensive Efficiency Ranking: 92.4 (218th)
  • Offensive Efficiency Ranking: 118.9 (1st)
  • Tempo Ranking: 76.9 (17th)

UConn vs. Iowa Best Bet

Iowa -2.5 (-118)

The Hawkeyes have looked like a championship-caliber team this whole tournament. They've outscored their opponents in all but three quarters across the first four rounds of tournament action and fell behind by only a combined 12 points in those three quarters.

Their offense is just too consistent. Since the tournament began, they've scored at least 20 points in 13 of 16 quarters -- they notched just 19 points in the second quarter of their tough matchup against LSU in the Elite Eight and had a strange six-point quarter as well as a 16-point quarter against the West Virginia Mountaineers in the second round.

In perfect conditions, UConn has what it takes to beat Iowa -- the Huskies' offense is just about on par with the Hawkeyes' attack, and they've played some elite defense all year. But the tournament has been taxing for the Huskies, and they've been using just six or seven players on game days in the last three rounds.

The NCAA Tournament is as much a battle of attrition as it is a battle against other teams. The Huskies have leaned on Paige Bueckers to play all 40 minutes in each of their last three games. Likewise, Nika Muhl has played 40 in back-to-back games. Even star forward Aaliyah Edwards logged 40 minutes in their Elite Eight win over the USC Trojans -- it was her second 40-minute game all year.

UConn is an interesting three-point defense, and how they do in this department could decide the outcome on Friday.

On one hand, the Huskies allowed a ton of three-point attempts -- 856 of them, the fifth-most among all teams, according to Sports-Reference. Their three-point attempt rate allowed was 38.2%, the 31st-highest. If they give up a lot of three-point tries against Iowa, it probably won't go well for the Huskies.

On the other hand, opponents didn't hit many of those three-point attempts versus UConn as the Huskies limited the opposition to just a 28.2% make rate on those shots from beyond the arc, the 38th-lowest mark in the NCAA.

I'm expecting UConn to keep things close for much of Friday's game but for a better-rested Iowa team to pull ahead by the final buzzer. Clark has just been too inevitable, and her eventual outburst of scoring should help Iowa cover the spread.

UConn vs. Iowa Prop Bets

Paige Bueckers Over 26.5 (-122)

Bueckers has been nigh-unstoppable in the tournament so far, with double-doubles in three of her four games -- she's averaging 28 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists, 3.3 steals and 1.5 assists per night since the event began. She's likely to play 40 minutes for a fourth straight game, meaning she'll have plenty of shooting opportunities throughout the night.

Friday's game should be a fast-paced, high-scoring affair, so it seems like a good environment for Bueckers to hit the over on her 26.5-point line. In some instances this campaign, the Hawkeyes' defensive approach has boiled down to "we'll just score more points than you," so the already efficient Bueckers should see plenty of her shots fall in.

Caitlin Clark over 5.5 Made Threes (-120)

While we covered how UConn holds foes to a low percentage from deep, it's fair to question just how well it will hold up against the Hawkeyes' relentless assault. In recent games, the cracks in the Huskies' perimeter defense have begun to show -- USC (29 attempts) and Syracuse (33) both got up a ton of looks from three, with the Orange hitting 13 (39.4%).

We've also seen the Hawkeyes hand the keys of the offense over to Clark when the stakes are highest. In their two closest games of the tournament, she has seen usage rates of 41.3% (versus LSU) and 45.0% (versus West Virginia).

Given the state of UConn's reserves, the Hawkeyes likely know that they'll have an edge if they can turn the game into a fast-paced shootout. I'm expecting them to create shots for Clark early and as often -- just like we saw in their win over LSU, where Clark attempted a season-high 20 three-pointers.

With Clark getting that much volume, even a lofty line of 5.5 made threes seems doable.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You have a chance to get $200 in Bonus Bets if your first bet wins—valid across all sports until April 9th! See the promotions page for more information.

Looking for more NCAA basketball betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the upcoming college basketball odds.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.