Will Kyle Pitts Have His Fantasy Breakout in Year 3?

It can feel impossible to get the tight end position right in fantasy football sometimes. Each year we analyze the numbers in search of a tight end that can rival Travis Kelce, and each year we find new ways to come up short. Even when it feels like the stars are aligning, it's just so easy for tight ends to disappoint in fantasy football.

Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts seemed destined for greatness after his rookie campaign. Entering the league as a top 10 overall pick from the 2021 NFL Draft class, he went on to become the first rookie tight end to crest 1,000 receiving yards since Mike Ditka back in 1961. It's tough enough for a receiver to put up good numbers as a rookie; it's borderline unheard of for tight ends.

And yet, in spite of all the hype, Pitts fell far short of expectations for fantasy football in the 2022 season.

However, 2023 is a new season, and it's fair to feel optimism about the former prince-who-was-promised. The Falcons seem to be on the cusp of being a competitive franchise again with an offense centered around stars including Pitts, Drake London, and now Bijan Robinson. Can Pitts bounce back to his rookie season form, or are we doomed to replay last year's hair-pulling-ly frustrating season all over again?

Kyle Pitts Fantasy Football Projections:

Projections via numberFire.

2023 Fantasy Points: 132.9
2023 Positional Ranking: TE5
2023 Projected Stats:

• 101.7 targets
• 60.5 receptions
• 749.3 receiving yards
• 4.6 receiving touchdowns

Kyle Pitts Fantasy Football Outlook

Where Things Went Wrong

We can all remember why the fantasy football community was so excited about Pitts heading into the 2022 NFL season. He averaged 60.4 receiving yards per game as a 21-year-old rookie, catching 68 passes for 1,026 yards and a touchdown that season while the Falcons' offense fell apart around him.

He was running routes on over 90% of his offensive snaps that year, too, giving him the kind of pass-catching opportunity we dream of for tight ends. His 508 routes run were the sixth-most at the position, despite playing for an offense that preferred to run the ball.

His role didn't change much in Year 2, but the Falcons' passing game sure did. He still ran routes on a solid 88.7% of his snaps in 2022 (a top 24 rate in the league), but the Falcons became the second-most run-heavy team in the league with Marcus Mariota struggling to hit open receivers. Among all of the league's qualified starters last year, only Davis Mills and Zach Wilson threw a higher percentage of "bad" passes than Mariota and his 22.5% bad pass rate. The Falcons were right to shift their offensive focus away from Mariota last year and were right to move on from him as their starter when they did eventually switch to Desmond Ridder, who is now in line open the season as their QB1 in 2023.

Unfortunately, that just didn't leave Pitts with many opportunities to put fantasy points up on the board. The targets he did see were often uncatchable while the overall passing game opportunities dwindled. He finished the year averaging just 2.8 catches per game, which is just not a volume that can produce viable fantasy football numbers.

The high hopes we had for Pitts entering the season led to him tanking the fantasy squads that drafted him. His high average draft position (ADP) entering the season saw him going as early as the third round in some leagues, meaning his managers passed up on other elite NFL talents for the opportunity to roster him. Once he was on their squads, his limited output tanked lineups on a weekly basis. The promise from his rookie season and elite athleticism kept mangers starting him each week, but cost those managers fantasy points week after week.

Building Back...Better?

Fortunately for Pitts, the misery that was the 2022 season is now behind him. Unfortunately, many of the issues that torpedoed his fantasy football output last year remain in place. For the upcoming year. Fantasy managers won't need to sacrifice an arm and a leg to draft him this year at his 62nd overall ADP (TE5), but he's still setting up potential fantasy managers for disappointment with that kind of draft capital and opportunity cost.

From an offensive structure standpoint, the Falcons really seemed to find themselves down the stretch last year after they scratched the Mariota experience. Only the Chicago Bears and Baltimore Ravens produced more yards on the ground than Atlanta's 2,718 rushing yards and no team topped the Falcons' 559 total carries. They have since seemed to further entrench themselves into that style of play by drafting former Texas Longhorns back Bijan Robinson so early in the 2023 NFL Draft. We want to see the team take a step forward in the passing department for sure, but it can almost be assumed that we'll see another season of dynamic ground-and-pound from Atlanta this year.

That style of play takes passing attempts out of the offense by design, which puts a cap on all of their top pass-catchers' upside for the season. That there is another exciting pass-catcher on the roster makes it even more difficult for Pitts to live up to expectations.

Drake London found his stride in the second half of his rookie season, which coincided both with Ridder usurping Mariota, and with Pitts suffering his season-ending knee injury. London averaged 5.5 receptions and 76.2 receiving yards per game after Pitts' injury and showed a real connection with Ridder as the season wound down. He's a legitimate breakout candidate this season with his potential breakout being at complete odds with Pitts' fantasy production.

Takeaways

Even if Pitts is able to regain his rookie season form, any potential fantasy breakout will have to come in spite of his surroundings, and not because of them. He'll be catching passes from an unproven, former third-round pick, he has legitimate competition for targets that he didn't have in his rookie season, and his team is more than happy to finish games with fewer than 20 pass attempts. He's a rare talent for sure, but we may have to wait before that true breakout season occurs.

It's probably not the most encouraging comparison, but consider former New York Giants tight end Evan Engram. A former first-round pick himself back in 2017, Engram's 64-catch, 722-yard, 6-score rookie campaign had fantasy managers watering at the mouth. Like Pitts, he too had draft capital, collegiate production, and elite athleticism in his corner heading into his second year. Unfortunately, we didn't see him replicate those numbers until this past season (five seasons later) after he signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Even when they have all the talent in the world, tight ends still just need a disproportionate number of things to break their way to generate solid numbers for fantasy. It's simpler just to fade Pitts in fantasy football this year at his current ADP. Consider potential three-down backs like James Conner, Javonte Williams, Alvin Kamara, or Rachaad White in that area of drafts instead.

While you wait for Week 1's daily fantasy football slates to lock, you can get in on some best-ball fantasy football drafts on FanDuel, as well. Just draft your team and watch the points pile up throughout the season.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.