US Open First Round Betting Guide: Tuesday 8/29/23
The final Grand Slam of the year, the US Open, gets underway this week.
We should see plenty of fun matches and storylines emerge over the next couple of weeks, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the tennis odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?
Let's see which first-round matches could have the most betting value on Tuesday.
Ugo Humbert vs. Matteo Berrettini
Ugo Humbert ML (+146)
There are always a handful of seeded players who get the short end of the stick when the draw comes out, and that's definitely the case here for Ugo Humbert. Despite being the 29th seed, Humbert finds himself facing 2021 Wimbledon runner-up Matteo Berrettini.
However, while this will no doubt be a tough test, Humbert might not be getting enough respect, giving us a potential buying opportunity.
While Berrettini is coming off an impressive run at Wimbledon in which he reached the Round of 16, grass is easily his best surface, whereas he's found less success on hard courts. Since Wimbledon, he's played just three hard-court matches in the lead-up to the US Open -- winning just one of them -- and he's 6-8 on the surface overall this year.
While his career win percentage on hard courts (55.8%) is by no means a bad mark, that pales in comparison to his record on grass (81.8%) and clay (70.1%). Of his seven titles, none have come on hard courts.
Humbert's 51.5% career win rate on hard courts admittedly doesn't leap off the page, but his recent form has been promising. He went 7-4 on hard courts this summer and is 14-8 for the year.
In fact, according to Tennis Abstract, Humbert has the higher Elo rating on this surface of the two, which suggests that he should actually be the slight favorite. The site projects Humbert to win 51.6% of the time, and while that might not seem like a big number, his +146 odds imply a mere 40.7% chance.
Berrettini has had previous success at the US Open, so it's always possible he finds another gear on Tuesday, but in what could be closer to a toss-up, the value is all on Humbert's side.
Caroline Garcia vs. Yafan Wang
Caroline Garcia ML (-146)
There's no question that Caroline Garcia has been a bit shaky lately, but it's also hard to see the 2022 US Open semifinalist losing to a qualifier.
Her opponent, Yafan Wang, is ranked just 114th in the world and has spent the majority of her season playing in ITF-level events. This will be the 29-year-old's first appearance at a Grand Slam since 2021 Wimbledon, and she's never made it past the second round of a major.
On the other hand, Garcia was arguably the hottest player on Tour around this time last year, winning a title at Cincinnati and then bulldozing the competition at the US Open before finally losing to eventual runner-up Ons Jabeur in the semis. She would go on to win the WTA Finals title at the end of 2022, as well.
While we haven't gotten that version of Garcia as much most recently -- she went just 2-4 on hard courts this summer -- we're still talking about a player ranked inside the top 10 that has a 32-17 (65.3%) record on this surface over the last 52 weeks.
Per Tennis Abstract, Garcia has a stellar 74.9% win probability, whereas this moneyline implies just 59.4%.
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