UFC 293: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of the weekend throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 12 fights at UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland, taking place at the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia on Saturday.

Kevin Jousset vs. Kiefer Crosbie

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Kevin Jousset is brand new to UFC, but he's a great introduction to this card.

He's one of six fighters from New Zealand's City Kickboxing, a gym made famous by middleweight champion Israel Adesanya, on this card loaded with Australian flavor. The Frenchman only fits into that mold by occupation, currently holding both the middleweight and welterweight titles in Australia's Hex Fighting Championship. The promotion thrust Jack Della Maddalena (6-0 UFC) into stardom, and Jousset could be next.

However, he'll have a fair first test here with a fellow newcomer. Kiefer Crosbie is likely more well-known by the American MMA fan after a 4-3 stint with Bellator's promotion. He also knocked out former UFC welterweight Alex "Cowboy" Oliveira regionally, but Cowboy is just 3-7 in his last 10 bouts in the twilight of his career, so it's not exactly a huge win.

Jousset has no wins or losses via submission, and Crosbie has just two wins via submission in his 13 career pro fights, so both of these guys prefer to strike in what should make for a fun fight. Lacking technical prowess with no data, I'm the exact wrong type of guy to say with confidence who wins it, but Jousset absolutely earns the benefit of the doubt here.

Other than a split decision, Jousset's only undisputed loss was a doctor's stoppage against the aforementioned JDM. Meanwhile, Crosbie was knocked out, submitted, and disqualified in separate Bellator bouts, so the 33-year-old just doesn't have near the long-term potential that a former rival of Della Maddalena's might have.

I'll lean toward the favorite with no confidence.

Betting Verdict

• There are so many good spots to come on this card. This ambiguous battle of newcomers isn't one of them.

DFS Verdict

• The decision must be made on FanDuel, though. On a card with plenty of distant 'dogs without a tangible shot to win, I'd understand a dart at Crosbie ($13), but the Irishman's historical shortcomings pique my interest in Jousset ($14).

Shane Young vs. Gabriel Miranda

Featherweight (145 pounds)

"Smokin'" Shane Young's UFC career is actually smoldering at this stage.

Young is on a three-fight skid, and while a knockout loss to Ludovit Klein (4-2-1 UFC) is forgivable, he's lost to the now-cut Omar Morales and debuting Blake Bilder in consecutive bouts. Even worse, the latter was in Australia earlier this year, so the Kiwi hasn't exactly fared better close to home.

As another City Kickboxing teammate, Young doesn't have much grappling upside. In fact, he's landed just 0.63 takedowns per 15 with a dreadful 18% of attempts landing. His takedown D (65%) isn't foolproof, either. While active, a -0.27 striking success rate (SSR) isn't what you want to see.

Therefore, his matchup with Gabriel Miranda could go one of two ways here. Miranda had the misfortune of a late-notice lightweight debut against Benoit Saint Denis (4-1 UFC), and Saint Denis knocked him down three times and landed 63% of his significant strikes in a stomping. Conceivably, Young could have some success here if the Brazilian is a total lost cause in the striking and he's unable to get to his grappling.

However, Young's suspect takedown defense also opens up what Miranda does best. He's won 15 of 16 pro fights via submission, but because Saint Denis was so dominant striking, he never even got to author an attempt in his debut.

At the end of the day, Young's only two UFC wins came over foes a combined 2-6 against everyone else, and both have been since cut. He's just not been dominant enough as a striker to believe there won't be moments where Miranda can have success in this bout. Plus, everything you could knock Miranda for in his debut -- like durability or inefficiency with takedowns -- is directly tied to being the smaller athlete against the now-ranked Saint Denis.

I don't have enough of a sample to insist Miranda can't hang with Young in a striking match. I do, however, know Young will greatly struggle on the ground here. I think you have to take the plus money with that the case.

Betting Verdict

• Miranda (+136) won last week without even fighting. As Benoit Saint Denis surges at 155, his debut becomes more and more forgivable. To me, it's clearly underdog or pass with Young sitting at -168.
• Young has never been professionally submitted, but he's also not fought a primary grappler in UFC to this point. I think it's created a longer-than-optimal number on Miranda's submission prop (+260) and this fight to not go the distance (-192).

DFS Verdict

• Many might flock toward the 64.0% implied win odds with Young at a fair $16 salary, but I'm not actually sure he's got tangible finishing upside. He has one in six fights. Miranda ($12) has a first-round submission in his range of outcomes.

Charlie Radtke vs. Mike "Blood Diamond" Mathetha

Welterweight (170 pounds)

UFC has scoured the Earth to find a fight that Blood Diamond might be able to win, and this might be it.

The artist legally known as Mike Mathetha is an accredited kickboxer who made the transition to MMA behind the guidance of the aforementioned City Kickboxing team. Diamond is 0-2 to begin his UFC tenure, having been submitted by Jeremiah Wells (3-1 UFC) before a more competitive bout with Orion Cosce (1-2 UFC).

Cosce is far closer to the challenge newcomer Charlie Radtke will represent, and honestly, Diamond did fairly well. He had a +38 striking differential, and the evolution toward damage being scored higher than Cosce's control time (9:42) in MMA judging could have meant he got the nod with more progressive judging. After all, Radtke hasn't proven anything yet in UFC.

"Chuck Buffalo" doesn't have a resumé that would normally pop for a UFC debut. Radtke has mostly fought at 155 pounds regionally, and he's only had one result against a fighter with a UFC appearance. That was a 2018 loss by unanimous decision to Austin Hubbard, and he was knocked out by Bellator prospect Justin Montalvo as recently as 2021.

To me, this line is insanity. Diamond is being given the higher-ranked red corner in this bout close to home, and he's the natural welterweight of these two. Though Radtke just scored a basic submission (a rear-naked choke) in his last bout, he's got just two as a professional against really sketchy competition.

Diamond stuffed five of the eight takedowns that Cosce attempted. If that efficiency improves against a smaller man here, there's not much doubt he'll have a striking advantage in this one. I like the 'dog.

Betting Verdict

• Diamond's moneyline (+235) feels like the most plausible on the card north of +200. Radtke hasn't been anywhere close to UFC-level competition, so this line is largely about Diamond's performance in tougher matchups.
• These two have combined for just two pro losses by finish, so it's interesting under 2.5 rounds is sitting at -196. I prefer the over with a bit of hesitation due to Diamond's power.

DFS Verdict

• This fight could be all over the map with outcomes. Radtke ($20) absolutely has first-round submission potential, but I prefer saving salary with Diamond ($9) due to better favorites on the way.

Nasrat Haqparast vs. Landon Quinones

Lightweight (155 pounds)

It's rare that an injury replacement provides a more competitive fight, but here we are.

Nasrat Haqparast was in line to demolish England's Sam Patterson (0-1 UFC) and his dreadful 44% striking defense, but there is hope Landon Quinones can fair better. Haqparast is a brutal first assignment in UFC, holding a 6-3 record in UFC since the start of 2018, and the losses were to lightweights who have all held a ranking at some point in the promotion's deepest division.

Haqparast lands 5.05 significant strikes per minute with an average 44% accuracy, but his 65% striking defense and 77% takedown D are his secret sauce. At less than half a takedown per 15 minutes, he's not a wrestler or grappler by choice, but it's worth noting he's never been submitted in UFC.

The newcomer, Quinones, is a total wild card. He has just one fight against anyone with a UFC appearance, scoring a split-decision loss against Muhammad Naimov in 2019. Quinones comes from Kill Cliff FC, which is a quality gym that's produced UFC-level talent around this weight class like Michael Chandler, Robbie Lawler, and Gilbert Burns. If he's earned their approval, it's likely why UFC made this call.

Still, without much technical acumen from yours truly, I can't really peg Quinones for the upset. Haqparast has proven to be a plus striker near the rankings of this division, and he's routinely denied ground-oriented fighters like Rafa Garcia and Marc Diakiese. You'd have to project Quinones to win a striking match here, and I haven't seen enough against low-level competition to be convinced.

Betting Verdict

• This fight is -120 to go the full distance, which makes taking Haqparast's bloated moneyline a queasy endeavor. It's possible a small dart at Haqparast's knockout prop (+160) makes sense if the newcomer is totally overwhelmed.

DFS Verdict

• Here is where I feel a bit more comfortable leaning into Nas. He's eclipsed 75 FanDuel points in each of his past three wins. He's a high-floor flex play at $22 -- and a contrarian MVP candidate.

Jamie Mullarkey vs. John Makdessi

Lightweight (155 pounds)

As a longtime veteran without many signature wins, John Makdessi might be one of the most unheralded fighters on the roster.

Analytically, Makdessi has no holes. The striker has an 85% takedown defense to keep the fight where he needs to, and he lands 50% of his significant strikes while defending a sublime 69% of incoming efforts. That sort of acumen is how he has an absurd 15-fight streak of holding a positive striking differential. He's 9-6 in that span.

On the other side is an Australian, Jamie Mullarkey, who is quietly desperate to get back in the win column. As a near -500 favorite, Mullarkey was dominating his last fight against newcomer Muhammad Naimov, but Naimov landed a significant blow that led to a TKO. Mullarkey's exact +0.00 SSR shows the ups and downs of his 4-4 UFC tenure, and his style has changed as he's aged.

He used to wrestle more, scoring eight takedowns in his first pair of fights. He's scored eight total in six fights since, and he's been dropped three times with a knockdown in that span. Makdessi's takedown D should limit Mullarkey to being a one-dimensional striker, but the veteran has just a 0.47% knockdown rate, so he may not be a prime candidate to finish Mullarkey and take advantage of his suspect chin.

Still, in a striking match, you're counting on Mullarkey's youth and six-inch advantage in reach to take the -265 favorite in a fight that seems ripe to be close and headed toward a decision. Makdessi has just one loss via finish since the start of 2016. I prefer a dart at the efficient, underrated Canadian.

Betting Verdict

• Earlier this week on my guy Matt Tanner's YouTube show, we both loved a straight shot at the 'dog, Makdessi. He's never authored a UFC submission attempt with minimal power, so Makdessi's decision prop (+350) seems like an obvious prop.
• Mullarkey's rate of going to a decision in UFC (57.1%) has typically been more influenced by his opponents, so over 2.5 rounds sitting at -210 makes plenty of sense.

DFS Verdict

• In a fight headed for a decision, the DFS target would almost certainly be Makdessi ($11), who does land a modest 5.52 significant strikes per minute to score points.

Jack Jenkins vs. Jose "Chepe" Mariscal

Featherweight (145 pounds)

These two fought in Jacksonville, earning wins. Matched together on Saturday, this one could be an absolute barnburner.

On less than a week's notice, Chepe Mariscal took advantage of Trevor Peek's 40% striking defense in a dominant decision win, landing 60% of his significant strikes and defending 59% of Peek's bombs. That fight was at lightweight, and now the veteran will return to his natural weight class where he's already scored wins over Pat Sabatini and Youssef Zalal regionally. He's also lost to UFC alumni like Joanderson Brito, Steve Garcia, and Sean Soriano (0-5 UFC).

With that measuring stick known, Mariscal is likely a competent -- but beatable -- 145er, so Austrailia's Jack Jenkins will have a shot to extend his winning streak in UFC to three. Jenkins took a split decision win over multi-time UFC winner Jamall Emmers, but the gap was realistically wider. Jenkins landed 49% of his significant strikes and defended 64% of Emmers'.

The losses to Garcia and Soriano in his most recent bouts with UFC-caliber fighters aren't exactly a good omen to face Jenkins, who has quickly established himself as a prospect to watch in this division. Jenkins' analytical profile, down to a +1.55 SSR, is just about perfect. He also averages 3.03 takedowns per 15 with a phenomenal 75% accuracy.

Trevor Peek is currently my model's lowest-ranked lightweight on UFC's roster, so while Mariscal cashed a slight 'dog on some basic skills, it's hard to pick against the Aussie with no noticeable holes and facing what is largely a step down in competition.

Betting Verdict

• Mariscal should be a trendy 'dog after dispatching a large favorite in his debut, but Jenkins is a worthy favorite.
• Chepe hasn't been submitted, and Jenkins has never authored a UFC submission attempt, but both of these fighters average at least three takedowns per 15 minutes. This fight to end by submission (+700) is awfully long for a fight that'll take place on the ground.

DFS Verdict

• That ground-heavy nature isn't ideal for daily fantasy, which keeps Jenkins ($16) out of the MVP mix. His per-minute scoring is still great, so he can work for flex spots.

Carlos Ulberg vs. Da Woon Jung

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Death, taxes, and a plum spot for Carlos Ulberg.

Ulberg's lone bit of "adversity" was a stunning knockout loss in which he had a +64 striking differential and got careless looking for a knockout of his own, and Kennedy Nzechukwu (6-4 UFC) has climbed toward the rankings with other wins since. "Black Jag" has since cruised to a four-fight win streak, and each of the last three was decided by a quick-and-easy first-round finish.

As another City Kickboxing guy, Ulberg is a former pro kickboxer landing 8.13 significant strikes per minute with 62% accuracy. His 52% striking defense doesn't seem impressive, but the bulk of that was Nzechukwu with a six-inch reach edge. Ulberg's 77" reach is nearly identical to that of Da Woon Jung here.

"Sseda" was someone I should have red-flagged when he was the only non-loss on Sam Alvey's 0-8-1 run to end a dismal UFC career. The low-volume Jung, landing just 3.39 significant strikes per minute, was able to escape with a draw in a fight where he lost two rounds.

Averaging 2.10 takedowns per 15, Jung's best work has come wrestling. That's the intrigue of this fight with Ulberg, whose 100% takedown defense has been tested just twice. Here's the problem -- Jung's wrestling stats are inflated by an eight-takedown effort against William Knight's 48% takedown defense.

In his last bout, Jung went just one-for-five on attempts against Devin Clark, and he hasn't landed multiple takedowns in any other bout. This striking match shouldn't even be remotely competitive, so Ulberg -- knowing Jung's path to victory -- is a risk worth taking despite the small sample of defending takedowns. If nothing else, he's a great athlete with the tools to do it.

Betting Verdict

• At the very least, Ulberg should be live until the end of this fight. Jung's low-volume, basic striking skills should allow for a chance to find a knockout even if "Sseda" has success with his wrestling.
• With a murky outlook on the total, I'd like to stick to Ulberg's moneyline -- even in parlays -- just to avoid a decision that he showed in 2021 with Fabio Cherant. His aggression with determine the outcome.

DFS Verdict

• Though we have high-volume strikers in other favorable spots, Ulberg's volume and knockout power is right in that top tier. He's an MVP candidate at $19.

Anton Turkalj vs. Tyson Pedro

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

"The Pleasure Man" likely has one last shot at becoming a UFC winner.

Anton Turkalj hasn't been given any breaks in UFC -- until perhaps now. Turkalj dominated with 11 takedowns on the Contender Series last summer, but he was inexplicably denied a contract. Then, Turkalj got a last-minute call to fight Jailton Almeida (6-0 UFC) as a scheduled loss, and then he was handed Vitor Petrino (3-0 UFC) earlier this year. Those two should both be ranked by the end of 2023.

There are no doubts now that Tyson Pedro is a fair opponent for him. Pedro knocked out Ike Villenueva (1-5 UFC) and Harry Hunsucker (0-4 UFC) following a near-four-year layoff due to severe injuries. Pedro's re-entrance into challenging UFC competition was an underwhelming bout against Modestas Bukauskas (3-3 UFC) where the veteran faded badly into the late stages of the bout. That was also in Austrailia, so this is no free "home game."

Pedro landed two of his first three takedown attempts to win the first round but couldn't proceed forward from there. At the very least, Turkalj (6.97 takedowns per 15 minutes) could really exploit that issue for Pedro, and otherwise, these are pretty similar strikers. Both land sub-3.00 significant strikes per minute with excellent accuracy (at least 58%) and modest defense (at least 50%).

A submission loss to Almeida aside, Turkalj hasn't really struggled with submission defense at his normal competition level. After all, he went 15 minutes with Petrino, who just submitted an opponent in June.

Pedro has shown sporadic knockout power and decent submission volume (1.0 attempts per 15 minutes), but if not expecting any particular vulnerabilities from Swede in those two specific areas, Turkalj has significantly fewer miles at 27 years old and vastly superior cardio to keep wrestling and wrestling. He's hard not to love in a pick 'em.

Betting Verdict

• Turkalj opened as the tiniest of underdogs at a consensus line, and he's swelled to a small favorite despite being a winless visitor to Pedro's home country. I think he's the side at -114.
• That said, we've yet to see a submission from Turkalj, and Pedro proved modestly durable with nothing in the tank in his last bout. I'd lean the fight to go the distance (+192) here but not bet it.

DFS Verdict

• With that aforementioned number on the over, this fight doesn't appear to be supremely relevant for fantasy if it goes the distance. Still, the mid-range pick 'em is valuable to get right, and I'll back "The Pleasure Man" at $15.

Justin Tafa vs. Austen Lane

Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Those who wanted Austen Lane disqualified in Jacksonville were a bit extreme, but he's now lost home-field advantage.

Lane was fighting in his backyard in June before a nasty, unintentional eye poke led to an anti-climactic no-contest with Justin Tafa. We got just 29 seconds, but the fight looked exactly as we presumed.

As a former member of the Jacksonville Jaguars, Lane is the better athlete of these two. He was knocked out by Greg Hardy in his initial appearance on Dana White's Contender Series but flashed in a return visit, holding a +2.66 SSR and 62% striking defense overall through that bout and the 29 seconds with Tafa.

We just saw Justin's brother, Junior, two weeks ago, and the two are basically the same fighter. Tafa is a slugger with zero wrestling or grappling behind a -0.93 SSR, and he's yet to win a UFC fight that saw a third minute. However, his power (1.59% knockdown rate) is very real.

I feel supremely confident from the half-minute we saw in Duval County that this fight is going to look one of two ways. Tafa could find the knockout on a guy we've seen vulnerable to such in a UFC setting before, but Lane should be able to win this fight just through his conditioning and wrestling beyond a few minutes.

It's almost impossible to envision a different scenario based on Tafa's UFC run thus far.

Betting Verdict

• You can't guarantee profit in a UFC fight, but hanging Tafa by first-round knockout (+135) at such a distant number allows for a unit bet on it and Lane's moneyline (+186), and I just can't see another outcome given the historical tendencies here.
• I wouldn't write off this one to go the distance (+500) if Lane is in the driver's seat. The favorite went to a decision with Jared Vanderaa; anything is possible.

DFS Verdict

• This is the exact same dynamic as two weeks ago with Junior Tafa. Justin ($17) is supremely live for a knockout and a huge day on FanDuel, but if he's unable to secure it, Lane ($11) likely has a nice day at the office.

Manel Kape vs. Felipe dos Santos

Men's Flyweight (125 pounds)
"Austin's Fight of the Night"

Though Felipe dos Santos is a total newcomer, his training partners give us a good glimpse at the war that's coming Saturday against Manel Kape.

Dos Santos was initially slated for Dana White's Contender Series when his opponent pulled out of the fight. Instead, he'll be flung to the wolves with a top-five opponent in the division. Even as a substantial underdog here, this betting line is pretty short as a believer in the undefeated prospect's ability.

At the very least, he trains with Charles Oliveira, Daniel Santos, and Elves Brener from Chute Box. All three are known for excitement, scoring a performance bonus within the last year. That should give us the best look into the entertainment value of "Starboy" yet.

Manel Kape was seen as a failing prospect from Rizin in Japan with uninspiring losses to Alexandre Pantoja and Matheus Nicolau in his first two fights with UFC, but both rose the ranks in this division quickly. After all, Pantoja is now the champion. Since, Kape has reeled off three straight wins, and two were by first-round finish.

Considering he's fought fringe-ranked competition or better every step of the way, a +0.56 SSR has been solid, and a 69% takedown D has been good enough. Even without the finish on David Dvorak, he dominated the entire fight, so that -- with a pair of tight losses to elite guys -- confirms his top-10 status.

That's why this betting line looks as it does. Kape has tested well against significantly tougher competition, but I'm not writing off the newcomer entirely. He should have his moments, but I'll still pick the Angolan veteran to either find a late finish or win this one on the scorecards.

Betting Verdict

• In a situation where a "spread" bet would be available, I'd strongly consider dos Santos' odds. Kape has gone the distance in three of five fights with just enough warts in his defense to not expect perfection.
• These odds combined with under 2.5 rounds sitting at -180 make me believe oddsmakers expect Kape to roll, but Chute Box delivers regular upsets through great volume and versatility. I'd prefer the over.

DFS Verdict

• Kape ($21) is a better DFS play than a bet, averaging north of 5.00 significant strikes landed per minute at distance. He's a deserving favorite, as well.
• dos Santos ($10) is a risky punt play that could pay off just by way of low salary if this fight is voluminous and lengthy.

Alexander Volkov vs. Tai Tuivasa

Heavyweight (265 pounds)

As heavyweight's title picture shuffles toward a post-Jon Jones world, Alexander Volkov should realistically have a seat at the table.

Volkov was quickly submitted by Tom Aspinall and taken down 14 times by Curtis Blaydes, but as a striker, he's nearly vanquished everybody. Volkov's -20 striking differential against Ciryl Gane was arguably the most competitive striking match of Gane's lengthy UFC tenure. His stellar +1.89 SSR comes with a 57% striking accuracy that's a product of his lanky, 6'7" frame. He's improved his takedown defense (73%) since the Aspinall and Blaydes fights, too.

Tai Tuivasa (0.28 takedowns per 15) isn't looking to get this to the mat, so that's a pretty excellent starting point for "Drago" Volkov. Using a heavyweight-best 2.25% knockdown rate, Tuivasa slugged his way through Derrick Lewis and Greg Hardy to earn a date with Ciryl Gane in Paris, but he was embarrassed and knocked out. "Bam Bam" was also just flatlined by Sergei Pavlovich last December.

As a result, Tuivasa's analytical resumé is fairly porous. He's got a -0.36 SSR, a poor 45% striking defense, and a 52% takedown defense that halted his early-career momentum with losses to Blagoy Ivanov and Serghei Spivac. In hindsight, he appeared to leverage Lewis and Hardy at exactly the right time when both have since flamed out.

When striking, Volkov will be significantly more efficient with five inches in reach. Volkov's 70% takedown accuracy could also lead to an unexpected yet effective path to victory.

It feels as if "Drago" just cleared this type of knock-or-bust challenge with Jairzinho Rosenstruik (-0.34 SSR) last June by first-round knockout. Though Tai is always live for a knockout followed by a patented shoey, the mathematical probability of one against Volkov isn't supremely high.

Betting Verdict

• On a week with parlay pieces that feel safer than they might be, I truly see Volkov's path to defeat as a knockout when he's absorbed just 3.00 significant strikes per minute. It's just not likely nor how I handicap fights.
• However, Volkov's 0.33% knockdown rate isn't large, so if he's in control, both his decision prop (+370) and over 1.5 rounds (-112) could be sneaky spots to fade the expectation of this bout.

DFS Verdict

• Volkov ($17) has quietly eclipsed 100 FanDuel points in four of his last five wins. His volume is solid for a heavyweight, and he's started to finish overmatched foes with an improving skillset. Tuivasa could be one of them.

Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland

Middleweight (185 pounds)
Five-Round Title Fight

I'm far from impartial here just based on my personal Elo rankings. I've always found Israel Adesanya wildly overinflated, and Sean Strickland has been doing his thing on small cards out of the public eye, leaving him under the radar.

Adesanya's technical acumen will get lauded just about anywhere you go in the MMA community, but it hasn't ever translated to my world. Izzy's 49% striking accuracy and 57% striking defense are solid for this division, but the debate here isn't "good." "Unbeatable" has always been a stretch for me when he's got just a +1.06 SSR because he averages fewer than four significant strikes per minute landed.

While he might have the tools, he doesn't put himself in the line of fire enough to earn "dominant" to me. Alex Pereira arguably took five of seven rounds from the longtime champion before a sudden and unwanted exodus to light heavyweight after Izzy, shelled against the fence, landed a haymaker for the ages to avenge his three losses to "Poatan" in May. Adesanya also offered snooze-inducing decisions against Jared Cannonier, Robert Whittaker, and Marvin Vettori that have aged with various degrees of concern.

Stylistically, this isn't an easy fight for Strickland, but it's hard to deny him analytically. He lands 5.86 significant strikes per minute with 41% accuracy, but the accuracy is actually quite high considering 86% of his strikes are aimed at the head. His 62% striking defense is higher than Adesanya's with takedown accuracy (64%) and defense (84%) that suggest he's got a nice wrestling kit that he admits to choosing not to use.

Adesanya is the more versatile striker of these two, and a 2022 first-round knockout loss to the aforementioned Pereira showed Strickland's tendency to make mistakes can cost him against supremely fast, powerful, and elite strikers. I totally understand placing him as a favorite, but this betting number is out of control due to a cocktail of factors. Adesanya is extremely popular, and Strickland's only appearance on a pay-per-view since returning in 2020 was the Pereira dud.

However, at this stage, Strickland can go toe-to-toe with Adesanya in top-shelf results. He outstruck Cannonier but wasn't as fortunate to snag the decision. He decimated top-10 guys like Brendan Allen and Jack Hermansson. Expecting Adesanya to cruise through with a knockout or a dominant showing here just doesn't track with his underwhelming historical results since the start of 2021.

In fact, Sean will be the first striker who averages north of 5.50 significant strikes per minute with a striking defense better than 60%. It's pace and defensive acumen that Izzy hasn't faced before on paper. I will stick to the brand and call the upset, but there's just no arguing about the betting value of this fight.

Betting Verdict

• Strickland's moneyline (+490) is such insane value in this fight. Due to his superior peripherals, my model pegs him as a -167 favorite, and I'd personally set him closer to +135.
• With that said, Strickland's striking defense and Adesanya's propensity to see the cards both shape well for over 4.5 rounds (+102). That line should get better and better as folks flood the Izzy ITD markets.

DFS Verdict

• On FanDuel, Adesanya has eclipsed 80 FanDuel points just once in his last six fights. Even if you believe he wins, it may not be as useful in fantasy.
• Strickland ($14) has a higher salary than his moneyline would otherwise deserve, but he'll be a contrarian value dart with upside to at least score volume in five rounds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.