Home Run Picks Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Props for August 12, 2026

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Bryce Harper (+430)
• Jazz Chisholm (+370)
• Mike Trout (+320)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Props, Best Bets Today

Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+430)

Phillies at Cardinals, 2:16 p.m. ET

St. Louis Cardinals RHP Kyle Leahy is really struggling against left-handed hitters, and that makes Bryce Harper my favorite HR pick from the afternoon games.

Leahy is allowing a 44.9% hard-hit rate and .384 wOBA to lefty bats.

That matches up well with Harper’s strengths as Harper has hit 21 of his 25 tanks with the platoon advantage en route to a massive .419 wOBA in the split. His batted-ball numbers back it up as Harper owns a 45.5% hard-hit rate against righties.

The weather is the cherry on top — it’s going to be 95 degrees with the wind blowing out to center at 6 MPH. That’s a pretty great setup for the ball to carry.

Jazz Chisholm to Hit a Home Run (+370)

Mariners at Yankees, 7:06 p.m. ET

While right-hander Bryce Miller is a good pitcher, he’s much worse away from pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, and he draws a tough matchup at Yankee Stadium today.

Miller boasts a 2.88 FIP at home and is holding hitters to a .215 wOBA in Seattle. On the road, however, he’s giving up a .325 wOBA while recording a 4.74 FIP. He’s also letting up 2.01 jacks per nine on the road, compared to 0.93 at home. He’s permitted five long-balls over his past three road starts.

Jazz Chisholm has disappointing overall numbers. He’s still got 17 homers, though, and of those 17 dingers, 13 have come against RHPs. At home against righties is his best split, with Jazz posting a .354 wOBA versus right-handers in the Bronx.

Chisholm is also showing some life of late, producing a .368 wOBA with a bomb over his last 18 plate appearances.

Mike Trout to Hit a Home Run (+320)

Rangers at Angels, 10:11 p.m. ET

Veteran RHP Cal Quantrill is getting the ball for the Texas Rangers, and that has me interested in the Los Angeles Angels in the dinger market.

Quantrill is having a similar season to his last few years as he’s got mostly meh numbers, including a 4.69 SIERA and 15.6% K rate. Hitters have tagged him for a 44.9% fly-ball rate.

Mike Trout has generated a .392 expected wOBA with a 41.7% hard-hit rate and 46.6% fly-ball rate — elite numbers. He’s popped 20 home runs, 15 of which have come in righty-righty matchups.

He’s already hit two taters in August, and once Quantrill departs, Trout will take on a Texas bullpen that sports the third-worst xFIP over the past 30 days (4.94).

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.