Today's Best Bets for NFL Week 13

We're beyond Thanksgiving and Black Friday, which will officially signals the start of a playoff push in the NFL -- and a crowded one.

We'll see 15 teams in action on Sunday that are still firmly in the playoff mix. Which of them should we bet...or fade?

Don't forget to check out FanDuel Research's NFL projections to see what numberFire's model expects from each player across key statistical categories.

Which value remains on the board in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds? Let's check it out.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NFL Betting Picks

Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets

Seahawks Moneyline (-106)
Kenneth Walker Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

The continued respect for a fluttering, 3-8 New York Jets team in betting circles is just baffling.

New York failed to cover again before a Week 12 bye, and I'm not sure a week off can fix this club. Once a bedrock, their defense has allowed the fifth-most Offensive Net Expected Points (NEP; numberFire's EPA metric) per play in the league over their last five games (0.15), and the offense's drama and struggles are well-noted. They're ranked no higher than 21st in numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics as a passing or rushing offense.

Meanwhile, I don't see this as buying the Seattle Seahawks high off consecutive wins as much as new coach Mike Macdonald has had time to marinate with a defense that's been much better since Ernest Jones IV entered the lineup. They limited two top-12 offenses in the last two games to just 15.0 points per game (PPG).

New York's season is over, and Seattle is in the thick of the NFC West race. Laying no points, I'll happily walk into this "trap", which hasn't really been one during a hot stretch for the betting public.

One of the reasons I love the Seahawks' value in this spot? It's buying low on their rushing attack we know has potential.

They're 29th in nF's ranks, but the Jets are also 28th on defense in that area. It's sort of a weakness-on-weakness situation -- except one side has Kenneth Walker III.

Walker has starved in the box score of late, but his role is awesome. Over the last five games, he's played 64.0% of Seattle's snaps and received 77.2% of the Seahawks' running back carries (15.6 per game).

With respect to this matchup, our Week 13 NFL DFS projections expect 71.6 rushing yards on Sunday, and it'll correlate well with a positive script for Seattle.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings

Cardinals +3.5 (-118)

Believe it or not, the Minnesota Vikings have played just two teams with a winning record all season. They split the contests against other contenders to win the NFC North but have otherwise padded their standing by an 8-1 record against teams below .500 this season.

Who'd have guessed the Arizona Cardinals were just the third team with a winning record in the sample?

It makes sense that, if I'm higher on Seattle than the market, that I'm more forgiving of Arizona's 16-6 loss to them at Lumen Field last Sunday. Their defense still played great, and Kyler Murray is an entirely different fighter in a dome like Minnesota's than those wet, windy conditions.

Quietly, the Vikings' prolific defense has been torched for 0.11 Passing NEP per drop back in the past five weeks, which would be a below-average mark if extrapolated to the whole season.

Off another emotional, overtime win where the Vikes seemed to get a bit fortunate against a losing squad again, I'll bite on this handicap with a key hook. Minny will start dropping these games soon.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Over 46.5 Points (-114)
Mike Evans Anytime Touchdown (+125)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are an over machine, and we can accept another in this matchup with an improving Carolina Panthers squad.

Tampa rates out as numberFire's fifth-best schedule-adjusted offense and fifth-worst schedule-adjusted defense, showing a specific weakness against the pass (28th). That's result in an over for 7 of the Bucs' 11 contests.

Shockingly, Carolina has a 72.7% rate to the over themselves. That's probably more credit to nF's second-worst schedule-adjusted defense than anything, but a surging Bryce Young has been doing his part of late. Young posted 0.20 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) in last week's difficult matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Getting the right side of a key number for NFL outcomes (47), I'm backing these teams to do it again.

One of the reasons why could be Tampa Bay receiver Mike Evans.

Evans came through in this column with his yardage prop last week due to the supreme role we projected. He saw a whopping 33.9% of the Bucs' air yards on six targets, but frankly, they didn't need him to smack the New York Giants -- if four rushing touchdowns weren't indication enough.

Tampa still seeks out Evans in the red zone, feeding him 52.6% of the total red zone targets this season. That's 1.3 per game. Carolina has allowed 10 receiving touchdowns this season, amounting to 0.9 per game.

Behind his gaudy amount of opportunities in the red area, FanDuel Research projects Evans for the most receiving scores of any wideout on Sunday (0.62). We'd assign him closer to +117 odds for a score.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.