The Memorial Tournament: PGA Best Bets, Predictions, Past Results, and Course Info

Even in a signature event field littered with quality golfers, Scottie Scheffler is still +280 to win this week's Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village.

Not only is that understandable, but it might even be long enough for us to consider betting Scheffler.

What leads to that enthusiasm (other than Scheffler's elite form), and which other golfers stand out entering this week's event?

Here's all you need to know.

All golf odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

The Memorial Tournament Info

Muirfield Village Course Info

Data from GCSAA, PGA Tour, and Data Golf's course table unless otherwise noted.

• Par: 72
• Distance: 7,569 yards (long for a par 72)
• Average Fairway Width: 24 yards (tight)
• Average Green Size: 5,000 square feet (small)
• Green Type: Bentgrass
• Recent Winning Scores: -8, -7, -13, -13, -9
• Recent Cut Lines: +5, +4, +3, +3, +4

Muirfield Village Course Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Emphasis on Driving Accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Proximity from 150 to 200

Although Muirfield Village is long for a par 72, the tight fairways keep driving accuracy a firm consideration.

Of the 7 golfers to finish T5 or better last year, 4 were top-25 for the event in driving accuracy, according to Data Golf. None of those golfers ranked better than 12th in distance, and only two were inside the top 20.

Overall strokes gained off the tee is likely still the best driving stat because distance is a factor. But we do want golfers who can put it on the fairway when necessary.

Due to the small green sizes, we should give added emphasis to both approach and around the green play. Data Golf's course fit tool has both in the 90th percentile of relative importance (compared to all PGA Tour courses), placing decreased emphasis on putting and driving distance to compensate. As a result, I'll be more skeptical of golfers who struggle with the wedges than I typically would.

Muirfield Village Past Results

Here are each golfer's finishes over the last five years of this event. The 2020 data is just from the Memorial as the Workday Charity Open was also played at Muirfield Village that season.

Recent Results Entering the Memorial Tournament

Here are each golfer's finishes over the last five events on the PGA Tour, omitting alternate field events the Zurich Classic as it was a team event.

The Memorial Tournament Best Bets

These picks stand out relative to their golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats cited below originate at Data Golf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past six months unless otherwise noted.

Scottie Scheffler to Win (+280)

Yes, this is an extremely short number for a signature event. Several factors lead me to think it could still be a value.

The primary one is the gap between Scheffler and the field. With no Rory McIlroy or LIV golfers, Scheffler is a full stroke per round clear of the field over the past six months, per Data Golf's true strokes gained query. Some of his top competition in Collin Morikawa and Xander Schauffele are in shakier form than their baseline, leaving the competition a bit softer than you would think.

Scheffler's also a good fit for Muirfield Village, as he demonstrated in his win last year. He has finished third, third, and first here in his past three tries with that initial podium coming before he fully ascended to his current supernova status.

I don't blame you if you prefer not to bet Scheffler at +280 to beat a 72-golfer field. For me, though, the payout is long enough to justify riding with a guy who has won more than one-third of his events since the start of last year.

Daniel Berger to Win (+4000)

Daniel Berger is another golfer who should fit the course well, allowing me to back him as my lone non-Scheffler outright.

Berger's roughly neutral in terms of distance, meaning he won't lose ground there, but he does that while being hyper-accurate. He actually ranks third in the field in driving accuracy the past six months, trailing just Morikawa and Aaron Rai.

Berger gains after the driver, as well, averaging 0.73 strokes gained per round on approach and 0.26 around the green. Putting has been his biggest weakness, but he's still a slight positive there, and the smaller green sizes may suit him.

Berger has three top-three finishes since last year's TOUR Championship but no wins yet. I think he has the upside to get that done.

Russell Henley to Finish Top 10 (+360)

I'm looking to buy low on Russell Henley in hopes that his recent down-turn is simply a fluke.

This will be Henley's first event after he absolutely bombed at the PGA Championship. He missed the cut with one of the worst scores in the field, losing strokes even in areas where he typically excels. That came a week after he was 46th at the Truist Championship.

At the Truist, Henley lost both off the tee and putting. But Henley's generally a plus putter, and both Philadelphia Cricket Club and Quail Hollow were places where driving distance mattered. That's still true this week, but Henley's plus placement will help.

Even at the Truist, Henley gained 0.64 strokes per round on approach. His superpower was still intact, and he's someone who can gain around the green, too. Thus, I'm willing to overlook the poor recent finishes and ride with a guy who who has finished top 10 (including dead heats) in 5 of 11 events since January 1st.

JJ Spaun to Finish Top 10 (+400)

JJ Spaun is coming off a top-10 last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge, an event where his irons remained hot.

There, he gained 0.81 strokes per round on approach. It was his third straight event at 0.73 or higher, including the PGA Championship. Spaun ranks eighth in the field in approach the past six months, according to Data Golf.

Spaun is someone who generally putts decently and can gain off the tee via either distance or accuracy. His one weakness is his around-the-green play, a big enough concern to prevent me from snagging Spaun in a more ambitious market.

The upside has been there for Spaun with top-10s in 4 of 15 events since January 1st, including his playoff loss at THE PLAYERS. The sample on his improved play is big enough for me to believe he's a value at +400.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.