Best WNBA Bet for Mercury at Lynx on Wednesday 7/16/25

Even within a single WNBA game, we've got countless betting options.

You can ride with traditional markets such as spreads or totals or bet on which players will erupt via the player-prop markets.

Which bet stands out for tonight's matchup between the Phoenix Mercury and Minnesota Lynx?

Let's run through the Mercury-Lynx best bet from FanDuel Sportsbook's WNBA betting odds, leaning on advanced stats from the WNBA to help us find an edge in the market.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes via the official WNBA player news wire.

WNBA Best Bet and Pick for Mercury at Lynx

Lynx -8.5 (-110)

The WNBA's top two teams square off for the fourth and final time this season on Wednesday. Minnesota took the first two games, including the lone prior head-to-head up north in Minneapolis by an eye-popping 23 points. But the Mercury bounced back with an eight-point win in their most recent matchup and head north riding a three-game win streak.

Phoenix has done so despite continued absences from Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper. Both have missed the past three games and appear unlikely to play with the All-Star Break this weekend.

So far that's yet to impact Phoenix; they've gone 3-0 with a +15.3 net rating with they've both sat this season. That incudes last week's eight-point win over Minnesota -- one which saw the Mercury rally from a seven-point deficit with five minutes remaining. They outscored the Lynx by 13 in the fourth quarter of that one, closing on a 19-4 run.

Even so -- without Sabally and Copper -- Phoenix is a near double-digit underdog for Wednesday's fourth clash with the Lynx. And considering this one takes place in Minnesota, I'm inclined to back the home side to cover as 8.5-point favorites.

Entering Tuesday's games, the Lynx had the best home record (11-0) and net rating (+19) in the WNBA. Of their 11 home wins, seven have come by at least 9 points. That includes a June 3rd clash with Phoenix where Minnesota shot 12-25 from three, won the rebounding battle by 13, and held their opponents under 40% shooting. The Lynx dished out 29 assists in that one -- par for the course for a team with the highest assist rate (75%) in the W.

The Mercury, meanwhile, are just 6-3 with a +1.1 net rating on the road. Much of that's been felt on the offensive end where Phoenix has averaged just 82.4 points on 42.4% shooting away from home. That bodes well for the Minnesota defense, especially inside. The Lynx are third in paint points allowed at home (30.4) but just ninth on the road (38.3). After letting up 56 points in the paint to the Mercury last week, I expect interior defense to be a point of emphasis for Minnesota.

In their final game before the All-Star break, a revitalized defensive effort should be enough to push for a near double-digit win against the short-handed Mercury.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.