Texas State vs Southern Miss College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Sun Belt Tournament

The No. 5 seed Texas State Bobcats (19-12, 11-7 Sun Belt) will square off against the No. 8 seed Southern Miss Golden Eagles (17-15, 9-9 Sun Belt) in the Sun Belt tournament Friday at Pensacola Bay Center, beginning at 6 p.m. ET.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Texas State vs. Southern Miss Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Friday, March 6, 2026
• Game time: 6 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN+
• Location: Pensacola, Florida
• Arena: Pensacola Bay Center

Texas State vs. Southern Miss Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Texas State win (52%)

Check out these betting insights and trends before you wager on Friday's Texas State-Southern Miss spread (Texas State -1.5) or total (139.5 points).

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Texas State vs. Southern Miss: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Texas State has compiled a 16-13-0 ATS record so far this year.
• Southern Miss has compiled a 15-15-0 ATS record so far this season.
• Texas State covers the spread when it is a 1.5-point favorite or more 57.1% of the time. That's more often than Southern Miss covers as an underdog of 1.5 or more (52.4%).
• The Bobcats have done a better job covering the spread when playing at home (11-4-0) than they have in road games (5-7-0).
• The Golden Eagles have performed better against the spread away (7-8-0) than at home (5-6-0) this season.
• Texas State's record against the spread in conference games is 10-8-0.
• Southern Miss has 10 wins against the spread in 19 Sun Belt games this season.

Texas State vs. Southern Miss: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Texas State has come away with 12 wins in the 14 contests it has been listed as the moneyline favorite in this season.
• This season, the Bobcats have come away with a win 11 times in 13 chances when named as a favorite of at least -120 or shorter on the moneyline.
• Southern Miss has won seven of the 21 games it was the moneyline underdog this season (33.3%).
• When playing as a moneyline underdog with odds of +100 or longer, the Golden Eagles have a record of 5-14 (26.3%).
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies Texas State has a 54.5% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Texas State vs. Southern Miss Head-to-Head Comparison

• Last season, Texas State was 110th in college basketball offensively (76.2 points scored per game) and 219th defensively (73.3 points allowed).
• Texas State grabbed 33.5 rebounds per game and gave up 29.6 boards last year, ranking 84th and 77th, respectively, in the nation.
• Last season Texas State was ranked 105th in college basketball in assists with 14.5 per game.
• Texas State committed 11.3 turnovers per game last season and forced 11.2 per game, ranking 201st and 184th, respectively, in the nation.
• With 71.3 points per game on offense, Southern Miss ranked 249th in college basketball last season. Defensively, it ceded 76 points per contest, which ranked 294th in college basketball.
• Southern Miss pulled down 32.6 rebounds per game (148th-ranked in college basketball). It ceded 33.8 rebounds per contest (321st-ranked).
• Southern Miss put up 14.4 dimes per game, which ranked them 111th in college basketball.
• Southern Miss averaged 13.2 turnovers per game (24th-worst in college basketball), and forced 11.1 turnovers per game (197th-ranked).

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