Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Thursday 4/18/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Jameson Taillon Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-142)

The Chicago Cubs' Jameson Taillon will make his season debut tonight, returning from the 15-day injured list. I'm worried about how many pitches Taillon could get capped at in the first start of the season. In his final rehab start in Triple-A, Taillon hurled only 68 pitches in 3.2 innings.

In addition to a potential short start, Taillon isn't known for putting up high strikeout numbers. The Cubs' starter has been among in the bottom 35% in strikeout percentage (K%) in the 2022 and 2023 seasons.

The Miami Marlins don't strike out often, carrying the 12th-best K% while totaling 7.95 strikeouts per game (9th-fewest). Miami has also averaged only 6.0 Ks over the last three games.

I have a hard time backing the over for Taillon when he tossed only 68 pitches in his last start in the minors. Plus, with the Marlins rarely striking out in recent games, the under looks like the clear choice.

Logan Webb Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120)

A lot of lines for strikeout props today do not offer much upside. That's true for the pitchers in the Arizona Diamondbacks-San Francisco Giants matchup. The under is -172 for Ryne Nelson, and the over is -150 for Logan Webb.

I have to find value somewhere, and it's the under for Webb (+120). This is certainly a bold pick as Webb has recorded better than a 4.00 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) in every season since 2021. While Webb regularly makes deep starts for San Fran, he doesn't post huge K numbers.

For example, Webb pitched for seven innings in his last two outings but averaged only 3.5 strikeouts over the outings. The sixth-year righty is currently in the bottom 22% in K%. The Diamondbacks are also a tough team to strike out, further pointing to the under.

Arizona has the lowest K% in baseball after touting the fourth-lowest mark in the category last season. One of Webb's big strengths has been chase rate; he was in the 86th percentile in the metric last year. This is simply not an ideal matchup for the Giants' starter as the D-Backs are tied for the fourth-lowest chase rate in the MLB.

Considering the +120 odds, I'm willing to take the risk on the under with Arizona rarely striking out.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.