Premier League Betting Picks for Tuesday 1/30/24: Will Villa Take Down Newcastle?

The January transfer window is about to close, but before it does, we have two days of midweek EPL action.

Today, we will be looking at a portion of Matchweek 22 – Tuesday. Tuesday's slate features five matches and is highlighted by a clash between Aston Villa and Newcastle.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?

EPL Betting: Matchweek 22

Newcastle at Aston Villa (3:15 p.m. ET Tuesday)

Aston Villa Moneyline (-110)

Newcastle’s season started slowly, with three losses in their first four matches, albeit against an exceedingly difficult schedule. They then proceeded to lose just once from Matchweek 5 to Matchweek 10. Since then, they have lost six of seven matches, including their last four in a row.

Their current four-match losing streak includes defeats to Liverpool and Manchester City. While losing to the two best teams in the EPL is understandable, Newcastle did so by a combined scoreline of 7-4. On expected goals -- per FBFef -- it was even worse as they lost 10.0-1.9. Their two losses before those contests were to Nottingham Forest and Luton Town. Those matches finished with a combined scoreline of 4-1 -- on xG, it was 4.9-3.8.

In their eight matches since the start of December, the Toons have been the better side on xG just twice. Their results have been poor, and those results have been a fair reflection of their underlying metrics.

Newcastle has also been one of the worst road teams in the EPL this season. In 10 away fixtures, they have one win, two draws, and seven defeats. They have not earned a point away from home since Matchweek 10 in late October, which was also the last time they won an away game on xG. Since then, they have lost seven in a row. Their xG differential (xGD) per 90 on the road (-0.79) ranks 15th. The primary issue? Their defense, which has allowed 23.2 xG in just 10 matches -- third-most in the EPL.

Aston Villa is coming off a disappointing away draw to Everton but have been a far better side than Newcastle this season. They rank sixth in xG/90 (1.90) and have allowed the fourth-fewest xG/90 (1.19). Their xGD/90 (+0.50) ranks fifth, and they have been the better side on xG in each of their last five fixtures.

Villa have also been an exceptional side at home, where they are undefeated this season with nine wins and a draw in 10 fixtures. At home, they rank first in goals/90 (2.9) and goals allowed/90 (0.8). Their home xGD/90 (+1.20) ranks third.

Newcastle’s poor form and extreme struggles on the road this season set up Aston Villa for continued success at home on Tuesday. Villa have faced a somewhat easy home schedule this season, but they passed their three big tests -- Arsenal, Manchester City, and Brighton -- with flying colors, winning all three. With Villa -110 to win, I like them to take all three points in this one.

Arsenal at Nottingham Forest (2:30 p.m. ET Tuesday)

Under 2.5 Goals (+111)

Arsenal bounced back from their two-game losing streak to earn a much-needed 5-0 victory over Crystal Palace in Matchweek 21. It was their first win since December 17th and the first time they generated more than 3.0 xG in an EPL game since late September.

Nottingham Forest’s two-match winning streak came to an end with their 3-2 loss to Brentford in Matchweek 21. In their last 10 matches, Forest has tallied two wins, one draw, and seven losses, but their underlying metrics indicate that they have deserved more. In those 10 fixtures, they have scored 14 goals from 13.6 xG and allowed 23 goals from 15.0 xG. Seven defeats from 10 matches that combined for an xGD of just -1.4 is harsh for Forest.

Arsenal are certainly deserving favorites in this one (-260 moneyline), but their inconsistency, including two recent losses against lesser sides in Fulham and West Ham, and their road form -- just two wins in their last seven away fixtures -- make them a bit difficult to back here at that number.

One consistent strength of the Gunners this season is their defense. They have allowed the fewest xG (16.7) in the league, and their defense has shown up away from home. They have allowed the fewest away goals 10 and fewest away xG (8.7) this season.

That presents an extremely difficult challenge for a Forest side that has struggled to score at home this campaign. Forest ranks 19th in xG generated at home (11.4). Like Arsenal, their strength has been their defense. Despite earning just 12 points from 10 home fixtures, Forest has allowed the fifth-fewest xG at home this season (11.5) -- only 1.15 xG per match.

Arsenal’s away matches this season average a combined xG of just 2.4 per match. Of their 10 away matches, only two have exceeded 3.0 combined xG, and those came in Matchweek 2 and 7. The story is the same for Forest’s home fixtures, which average just 2.19 xG per match. Of their 10 home fixtures, just two have finished with greater than 3.0 xG, with five finishing with less than 2.0 xG.

On actual goals, these numbers are higher, as both sides have underperformed their xG allowed and Forest has overperformed their xG scored. But the overall picture is still one of two sides that, in these match conditions, play games where xG has been limited.

For that reason, I like under 2.5 goals in this fixture. Forest is listed at -105 to score no goals. That leaves room for the Gunners to win and the under to hit. Arsenal wins of 1-0 or 2-0 (both +600) are currently the correct score lines with the highest implied odds.

Player Props

Eberechi Eze to Score or Assist (+100): Before their 5-0 defeat to Arsenal, Palace scored in five consecutive games and 10 of their last 11. Sheffield United’s defensive struggles are well documented, and they are on the road in this one, where they are allowing 2.5 goals from 2.0 xG per match. Eze has been in excellent form since returning from injury, totaling 11 shots, four shots on target, a goal, and nine chances created in his last three matches combined.

Douglas Luiz to Score or Assist (+155): Luiz’s role on set pieces has him well positioned to take advantage of Newcastle’s road struggles on Tuesday. Over their last five away fixtures, the Toons are allowing 2.8 goals/90 from 3.58 xG/90. They allowed at least 2.4 xG in four of those five fixtures.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.