Premier League Betting Picks for Matchweek 25: Will Man United Keep Winning?

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz
Premier League Betting Picks for Matchweek 25: Will Man United Keep Winning?

After a week of European action, the focus returns to the Premier League for English teams.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?

EPL Betting: Matchweek 25

Manchester United at Luton Town (11:30 AM ET Sunday)

Manchester United Moneyline (-130)

Betting on Manchester United to win away from home has not been a profitable venture for much of this season. They have won just six of 12 matches on the road in the Premier League this season.

But things are starting to look up for Man United this season. They've won their last four games in all competitions, including two road EPL matches.

Last Sunday, they were able to beat Aston Villa away. Villa had dropped points in just two of their 11 Villa Park matches and had impressive home victories over Manchester City and Arsenal.

This weekend, Manchester United's away match won't be as daunting as their last one. They are traveling to Kenilworth Road to face Luton Town. Luton had been playing better, but their last match was a home loss to Sheffield United -- the worst team in the league.

Luton are currently 17th in the Premier League table -- not in a relegation place only because of Everton's point deduction. Luton have the third-worst expected goal (xG) differential in the EPL, according to FBRef.

Manchester United's improved play should allow them to beat a team they are more talented than, even on the road. The -130 odds feel a bit short, so I'm happy to take United at this number.

West Ham at Nottingham Forest (10 AM ET Saturday)

Nottingham Forest Moneyline (+140)

It's rare that we see a team in 16th place favored over the team in eighth, but that's the case in this match.

West Ham have hit rock bottom of late. They've lost their last two matches by a combined score of 9-0. They haven't won a match since December 28th, and that includes getting knocked out of the FA Cup by Bristol City -- who are a division below the Hammers.

The underlying numbers always suggested that West Ham were over-performing this season. They have the fifth-worst xG differential in the league. A key absence for them continues to be Lucas Paqueta, who has arguably been West Ham's best player this season.

The results haven't been great for Nottingham Forest of late, but some of the performances have been encouraging under Nuno Espirito Santo. He took over on December 20th, and his first two games were wins over Newcastle and Manchester United.

Since then, they haven't won a game in the Premier League. They lost to Newcastle at home last week but did win the xG battle 1.5-0.5. They also played a tight game against Arsenal, losing 2-1 on January 30th, and limited the Gunners to just 1.2 xG.

Forest have a better xG differential than West Ham on the season, and Forest have a good chance of kicking West Ham while they're down. I'd back Forest at +140 in this match.

Player Props

Bukayo Saka to Score (+175): Bukayo Saka leads Arsenal with 10 goals and has been in great form of late.

Saka has four goals in his last three matches, including two in just 67 minutes against West Ham last week. He's averaging 0.46 xG per 90 minutes.

This matchup for Arsenal against Burnley is a good one, as Burnley have conceded the second-most goals in the Premier League. Getting this big of a number on the likely penalty taker on a huge favorite has me very interested in this prop.

Pascal Gross to Score or Assist (+120): Pascal Gross might be one of the more underrated players in the Premier League over the past few seasons. He joined Brighton in 2017 when they first got promoted. He's remained in the side despite the fact that Brighton have recruited several talented players since then.

He's the main set-piece taker for Brighton and has racked up assists via corner kicks. His eight assists are tied for the third-most in the league.

Brighton will face Sheffield United, who have conceded the most goals and most xG this season. The Seagulls haven't had much trouble scoring goals this season, ranking seventh in the league in that department, so they're fully capable of taking advantage of the Blades' poor defense.

Gross is also Brighton's penalty taker with Joao Pedro injured, so he could score from the spot if given the opportunity. I like backing him to contribute to a goal on Sunday.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.