Premier League Betting Guide Matchweek 9: Will the Gunners Sing the Blues?

With another international break officially behind us, the EPL is back!

Matchweek 9 -- which starts on Saturday -- features 10 matches and is highlighted by a clash between Chelsea and Arsenal.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?

EPL Best Bets: Matchweek 9

Arsenal at Chelsea (12:30 p.m. ET Saturday)

Arsenal Moneyline (+125)

The last time we saw Arsenal in EPL action, they secured a monumental one-goal victory over Manchester City. With that win, the Gunners moved into a tie with Tottenham at the top of the table, with City two points behind in third.

The time off provided by the international break should help to prevent any kind of emotional letdown that could result from that kind of win, and Arsenal now return to action on the road against Chelsea.

The EPL table paints this fixture heavily in Arsenal's favor -- they sit in second, compared to Chelsea's spot of 11th -- but the expected goal (xG) metrics, per FBRef, tell a different story. On xG difference per 90, Arsenal ranks third (+1.04) while Chelsea ranks fourth (+0.86).

The Blues enter this fixture on a two-game winning streak, with back-to-back victories over Fulham and Burnley by a combined score of 6-1. Until recently, the results haven't been there for Chelsea, but their xG created (15.0) is on par with Arsenal's (14.9) while the Blues' xG allowed (8.1) is only slightly behind the Gunners' (6.5).

Of the two, Arsenal has been far better at converting their chances, netting 16 goals to Chelsea's 11. The main issue for Chelsea is the schedule they've faced to this point, which has been significantly easier than Arsenal's.

Through eight EPL fixtures, Chelsea has faced just three teams currently in the top half of the table -- Liverpool, Aston Villa, and West Ham. In those games, they have a record of one draw and two losses, with a combined goal differential of -3. They did win the xG battle in each of those contests but struggled to turn chances into goals.

Through their eight EPL fixtures, Arsenal has faced four teams currently in the top half of the table -- Manchester City, Tottenham, Manchester United, and Crystal Palace. In those games, they have a record of three wins and one draw, with a combined goal differential of +4.

One thing that should be working in Chelsea's favor is playing on their home turf, but the Blues have enjoyed no such advantage thus far. In four home matches, Chelsea has one win (Luton Town), a draw (Liverpool), and two losses (Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa). Arsenal are undefeated in their three away matches, with wins against Crystal Palace, Everton, and Bournemouth by a combined score of 6-0.

To date, despite facing a tougher schedule, Arsenal has bested Chelsea in results and xG metrics. The Gunners have performed well against better opposition, and the Blues have failed to secure a win against a single opponent in the top half of the table.

Although this will be Arsenal's first road game against a big-six opponent this season, the Gunners have passed every test thrown at them so far, and I expect them to pass this one as well.

West Ham at Aston Villa (11:30 a.m. ET Sunday)

Aston Villa Moneyline (-115)

Aston Villa and West Ham have both enjoyed solid starts to their campaigns, sitting in fifth and seventh, respectively, in the EPL table.

West Ham started the season in exceptional form, winning three of their first four matches, including victories over Chelsea and Brighton. Since then, against an extremely difficult schedule, they have lost two (Liverpool, Manchester City), drawn one (Newcastle), and won one (Sheffield United). Aston Villa has five wins, two losses, and a draw, including wins over Brighton and Chelsea as well as heavy defeats to Newcastle and Liverpool.

Both sides are overperforming their xG difference per 90. Aston Villa ranks 10th (+0.26) while West Ham ranks 14th (-0.51). West Ham is one of only two teams -- the other being Crystal Palace -- that sit inside the top half of the league table despite owning a negative xG difference.

West Ham's main weakness is their defense. They rank 18th in xG allowed (16.3) but have conceded just 12 goals, tied with four other clubs for ninth in the EPL. Of the five sides that have conceded 12 goals, none has an xG allowed greater than 13.0, a full 3.0 xG allowed below the Hammers.

That is partially due to West Ham's schedule, which has seen them play each of the top three teams on the xG table (Newcastle, Liverpool, and Brighton). In those matches, they conceded six goals from 6.5 xG, but their struggles go beyond that. West Ham's xG allowed has been greater than 1.1 in each of their eight matches this season, including fixtures against Bournemouth (1.3), Luton Town (1.5), and Sheffield United (1.1) -- three sides that rank inside the bottom seven in xG this season.

Enter Aston Villa, who ranks fourth on the xG table (15.1) and third in goals scored (19). They have also been an exceptional side at home this season, with three wins in three matches by a combined score of 13-2, including a 6-1 victory over Brighton in their most recent home fixture.

Villa is coming off a road draw to Wolves, but they are back at home in this one. Plus, their strengths match up perfectly with West Ham's vulnerable defense. The Hammers have been a resilient road team -- with two wins, a draw, and a loss in four fixtures -- so it won't be smooth sailing for the home side.

That said, Villa are deserving home favorites in this one, and I like them at -115 to take all three points.

Player Props

Rasmus Hojlund to Score (+125): I know, it's Manchester United, but they are facing a Sheffield United side that has conceded the most xG (19.6). Not only have the Blades not kept a single clean sheet this season, but they have also held their opponent to fewer than two goals only one time. This is the get-right spot of all get-right spots for United's forwards, and Marcus Rashford (+135 to score) is also worth considering.

Alexander Isak to Score (+130): Isak's status is uncertain due to a minor injury he sustained against West Ham on October 8th, but if he starts, I like him to score against Crystal Palace. Newcastle ranks first in xG created (17.3), and Isak ranks second in individual xG (5.4) and xG per 90 (1.03). Palace ranks seventh in xG allowed (10.6) but has not been tested so far, with six of their eight matches coming against teams that sit outside the top nine on the xG table. If Isak is ruled out and Callum Wilson starts in his place, Wilson is also worth considering at his listing of +140 to score. Wilson has scored in each of his two starts this season and leads the EPL in xG per 90 (1.23).

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