Premier League Betting Guide Matchweek 7: Will Liverpool Take All 3 Points Against Tottenham?

Coming off some midweek League Cup action, the EPL is back!

Matchweek 7 -- which starts on Saturday -- features 10 matches and is highlighted by a clash between Tottenham and Liverpool.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?

EPL Best Bets: Matchweek 7

Liverpool at Tottenham (12:30 p.m. ET Saturday)

Liverpool Moneyline (+120)

Tottenham's form to open the season has been one of the more surprising storylines of the first two months of the EPL campaign. After a disappointing eighth-place finish last season, Spurs moved on from manager Antonio Conte and hired Ange Postecoglou from Celtic. The early results have been positive, but the underlying metrics tell a different story.

Through six games, Tottenham are undefeated, with four wins and two draws -- highlighted by a 2-0 win over Manchester United and a 2-2 draw with title contenders Arsenal. Their schedule has played a part in their success. Outside of Arsenal, they have yet to face a side sitting inside the top eight on the league table.

That schedule makes their poor expected goal (xG) metrics -- per FBRef -- even more concerning. Despite sitting in fourth on the league table, Spurs rank ninth in expected goal difference per 90 minutes (+0.36). They also rank ninth in xG per 90 (1.81) and 10th in xG allowed per 90 (1.45). They have been drastically overperforming their expected outcomes, generating 15 goals from 10.9 xG and conceding 7 from 8.7 xG allowed.

Going off results, they have the look of an improved side, but their metrics are that of a mid-table team, which is where they finished last season.

Enter Liverpool, who ended last season on an 11-match unbeaten run in the league and have started this season with five wins and one draw. They sit second on the table, and unlike Tottenham, their expected goal numbers support their position.

They rank second in xG per 90 (2.20) and fifth in xG allowed per 90 (1.17), and their xG difference per 90 (1.03) is second-best behind only Manchester City. Liverpool has also overperformed their expected outcomes, with 15 goals from 13.2 xG and 5 goals conceded from 7.0 xG allowed, but their underlying metrics paint a brighter picture than Tottenham's.

Liverpool has produced these metrics against a tougher schedule. Three of their five wins have come against Newcastle (eighth on the table), Aston Villa (sixth), and West Ham (seventh). Their lone draw came against Chelsea in their opening match. One small blemish for Liverpool is that in their two most difficult matches so far this season -- against Chelsea and Newcastle -- they did lose on expected goals.

As it stands, Liverpool are the second most likely team to win the EPL (+650) behind Manchester City (-270), per the futures odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Tottenham sit in a distant fourth (+2500). These teams are closer on the league table than their metrics indicate that they should be. Taking three points on the road is never an easy task, but I believe that Liverpool are the better team, and I'm taking them to win at +120.

Brighton at Aston Villa (7:30 a.m. ET Saturday)

Brighton Moneyline (+155)

The other matchup between top-six sides this weekend sees Brighton clash with Aston Villa.

On paper, you won't find two more evenly matched sides. They sit three points and two spots apart on the league table, but their underlying metrics are also shockingly similar.

They have both been excellent in front of goal as Brighton's 12.5 xG ranks third while Aston Villa's 11.9 xG ranks fifth. They have both struggled to defend -- Brighton's 9.9 xG allowed ranks 14th while Aston Villa's 9.6 xG allowed ranks 13th. On xG difference per 90, Brighton sits in seventh with Aston Villa right behind them in eighth, the two sides separated by just 0.06.

Brighton have been more efficient with their opportunities, scoring 18 goals from their 12.5 xG, while Villa's 12 goals are nearly a direct match to their 11.9 xG. Brighton have also been more fortunate in front of their own goal, conceding 8 goals from 9.0 xG allowed, compared to Villa's 10 goals conceded from 9.6 xG allowed.

The largest difference between these two sides has been their schedules and their performances against elite opposition. Aston Villa's four wins have come against Everton (15th on the table), Burnley (19th), Chelsea (14th), and Crystal Palace (10th). In their two matches against Newcastle (eighth) and Liverpool (second), they lost by a combined score of 8-1.

Brighton have also picked up wins against bottom-of-the-table sides -- Luton Town (18th), Wolves (16th), and Bournemouth (17th) -- but have performed better against teams ranked inside the top nine. They defeated Manchester United (ninth) and Newcastle by a combined score of 6-2 but did lose 3-1 to West Ham earlier in the season.

The stage is set for a high-scoring, tightly contested clash between two sides vying for position at the top of the table. In what is sure to be a very entertaining fixture between two ascending clubs, I'll lean towards Brighton at +155 to win.

Player Props

Darwin Nunez to Score (+170): Despite playing limited minutes last season, Nunez was one of the best players in the league on a per-90-minute basis, ranking first in shots (4.46) and shots on target (1.86), and fourth in xG (0.64). He is seeing similar results this season and ranks third in xG per 90 (1.06). His impressive efficiency may have finally earned him a consistent spot in the starting 11. He has started in back-to-back games and scored in each.

Phil Foden to Score or Assist (-105): After being eliminated from the League Cup by Newcastle on Wednesday, City are well-positioned to bounce back in a big way against a Wolves side that ranks 19th in xG allowed per 90 (1.76). Foden was brought on in the 73rd minute in that cup loss as City tried to salvage the game. He should start in this one in what could be a big day for City's entire attack.

Looking for more soccer betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the soccer odds.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.