Soccer

Premier League Betting Guide Matchweek 6: Can the Bees Buzz Against Everton?

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz
Premier League Betting Guide Matchweek 6: Can the Bees Buzz Against Everton?

After a large portion of teams saw action in Europe in the midweek, the teams will return to domestic soccer this weekend. It's something to keep in mind, as it could cause teams to rotate their squads.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?

EPL Best Bets: Matchweek 6

Everton at Brentford (12:30 PM ET Saturday)

Brentford Moneyline (-125)

Brentford suffered their first defeat of the season last week and will look to bounce back this week. They also have just one win on the season, but that doesn't reflect how well they've played.

The Bees are in their third season in the Premier League, and they are getting better each season. Using the expected goal (xG) model on FBRef.com, they went from -0.07 xG differential per 90 in their first season to 0.18 in their second season, and they're at 0.84 so far this season.

The argument you can make against their start to the season is that they haven't played the toughest opponents yet. When they did come up against one of the better teams in Newcastle last week, they lost and also lost the xG battle for the first time this season.

They'll get a much easier matchup this Saturday against Everton. Everton have just one point in five matches -- a draw against lowly Sheffield United. That was also the only league game that Everton has scored in this season.

Everton haven't been as bad by xG as their results suggest. They only are -0.2 in xG differential on the season. However, they've only played one team expected to be at a Champions League level, and they could only create 0.3 xG against Arsenal last week.

Brentford are a more organized, well-oiled machine than Everton, who seem to be a bit of a mess. With Brentford only laying -125, that's a solid price on them getting the win at home on Saturday.

Fulham at Crystal Palace (10:00 AM ET )

Crystal Palace Moneyline (-105)

A London derby is always circled on the fixture list -- even between two of lower-level clubs in the Premier League.

Neither of these teams have been too impressive so far, but Crystal Palace has definitely been better. They've won two of their five matches in the Premier League this season and were able to hold their own in their toughest match against Arsenal.

Fulham haven't had the best start to the season. They lost their star striker, Aleksandar Mitrovic, in the transfer window. The striker they signed in hopes he could replace Mitro was Raul Jimenez, but he hasn't been the same since suffering a serious head injury in 2020.

Fulham have lost the xG battle in every match in the Premier League this season, including last week to Luton Town at home. They currently have the worst xG differential in the league -- even worse than the promoted teams that are fairly weak.

A thing that Crystal Palace have lacked over the years has been a reliable goal scorer. That may change this season; Ossaune Edouard has scored four goals in the first five matches of the league season.

Palace should be in line for a win at home here, so it's a good spot to lay short odds on them.

Player Props

Mohamed Salah to Score (+110): The odds aren't crazy rewarding, but there's not much reason for Salah to not be odds on to score in this game. West Ham --despite their solid results-- have allowed the fifth-most xG in the division and will be on the road in this match.

Salah is Liverpool's penalty taker and is still one of the best goal scorers in the Premier League. Getting him to score as a home favorite at +110 is too good to pass up.

Julian Alvarez to Assist (+190): Alvarez has taken over a lot of the playmaking duties for Manchester City with Kevin De Bruyne injured. He has three assists in five Premier League games this season and is also taking set pieces.

With City expected to rack up the goals at home against Nottingham Forest, there is a good chance Alvarez will set up at least one of them.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.