Premier League Betting Guide Matchweek 2: Aston Villa Will Bounce Back

The Premier League returned with a bang last weekend, and the campaign is off and running, with Matchweek 2 starting on Friday.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, what bets make the most sense for this matchweek?

EPL Matchweek 2 Betting Guide

Sheffield United at Nottingham Forest (2:45 p.m. ET Friday)

Nottingham Forest Moneyline (-110)

In Matchweek 1, Nottingham Forest had a tough assignment at Arsenal, but Forest more than held their own, actually winning the expected goals (xG) battle, 1.2-0.8, per FBRef. It was a quality performance from a side that is expected to be in and around the relegation battle again this season.

On Friday, the Tricky Trees play host to Sheffield United, another relegation candidate. Despite it being just Matchweek 2, this is an important match for both sides, particularly Forest since they're at home. Whenever two relegation candidates play each other, it's big -- no matter what time of the year it is.

Sheffield United won automatic promotion to the top flight for this season via a second-place showing in the Championship in 2022-23. They've had a weird off-season. Promoted sides typically load up in an effort to stay in the EPL, but the Blades have done the opposite, losing some key pieces from their squad. There's a reason Sheffield United are listed at -190 to be relegated, and they did nothing in Matchweek 1 to alleviate those concerns, losing 1-0 at home to a midtable Crystal Palace side in a match where the Blades were thoroughly outplayed 1.9-0.5 on xG.

Forest and Sheffield United put forth very different displays last week. This match is a golden chance for Forest to get three points and also damage another relegation candidate. I like Forest to get the win.

Everton at Aston Villa (9 a.m. ET Sunday)

Aston Villa Over 1.5 Goals (-130)

Aston Villa got smashed last weekend, losing 5-1 at Newcastle. While they didn't deserve to lose by four -- dropping the xG tally only 3.3-1.8 -- Villa looked a notch or two below Newcastle.

But what interests me from that match is the 1.8 xG created by the Villans. That's pretty darn noteworthy because Newcastle was very stingy at home last season, permitting only 15.6 xG across 19 home matches. Villa amassing 1.8 last Saturday -- even in a lopsided loss -- is a positive sign for them moving forward, and for most of the match, Unai Emery's side played some good stuff in attack.

Villa have a much softer matchup this Sunday, getting a home fixture against an Everton bunch that narrowly escaped relegation a year ago. Everton are expected to be in a similar position this campaign. Going by the betting odds, they are listed as the fifth-most likely squad to go down (+240).

Last week, the Toffees allowed 1.5 xG to a fairly pedestrian Fulham side. It was a continuation of Everton's defensive woes from last year when they gave up the second-most xG last season (65.7 in 38 matches).

Everton could struggle defensively again this campaign. Pairing that with Villa's Matchweek 1 effort in attack leads me to this bet as I think Villa finds a way to score at least twice on Sunday morning.

Futures Bet

Manchester United to Finish Outside the Top 4 (-115)

I came into this season thinking Manchester United were overvalued in a few betting markets. After watching United's season-opening performance versus Wolves, I have major doubts about the Red Devils' ability to hang at the top of the table.

United sure didn't look good at home against Wolves. They were lucky to win 1-0, giving up 23 shots and 2.1 xG to a Wolves side that was last in the EPL in 2022-23 in both goals scored and xG scored.

This isn't just a one-match overreaction, either. A season ago, United were very fortunate to finish third. They ranked sixth in xG differential and scored just the seventh-most goals in the league. Plus, I'm not sure their summer signings improve them all that much, and the balance of the team -- especially in midfield -- didn't look right as Wolves cut them open multiple times.

The competition for the top four should be brutally tough. Assuming Arsenal and City take up two of the spots, the other two spots will likely come down to United, Liverpool, Chelsea and Newcastle. For me, United might be the worst side of those four, and I am happy to get them at -115 to miss out on the top four.

Player Props

Ollie Watkins Anytime Goal (+140): This correlates with the Villa bet above. Watkins is the talisman for the Villans, and he bagged a team-best 15 goals in the EPL a season ago. No one else on Villa scored more than six times. He'll likely take penalties, too. Watkins' goal-or-assist odds aren't out yet, but that'll be another number worth checking out.

Rodri to Be Booked (+300): The headline match of the weekend is Newcastle at City. I think the Magpies can cause City some trouble and have the pieces to be dangerous on the counter. As a result, Rodri could end up in some difficult positions and may need to take a foul to stop a Newcastle break. Rodri tied for the team lead in yellow cards last year with five.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.