Packers at Lions Single-Game NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football

This week's edition of Thursday Night Football features the slate's highest total, so we could be in for a high-scoring affair between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Packers at Lions NFL DFS Picks

MVP Candidates

Quarterbacks Jared Goff ($13,000) and Jordan Love ($13,500) lead the slate in our NFL DFS projections, and if this turns into a shootout as the 51.5 total suggests, there's a clear path to one of these two leading this matchup in scoring.

However, even with that fantasy-friendly over/under, these are both run-first offenses, so gaudy passing numbers are no guarantee. Detroit is 23rd in pass rate over expectation while Green Bay is 31st. Although we've seen Goff pop for 26+ FanDuel points three times this season, he's otherwise averaged 14.0 points across his other nine games. Likewise, we saw some big fantasy performances from Love earlier in the year, but he's cracked 20 points just once since Week 6.

While that should give us pause, Goff's passing yardage prop is set at 253.5 while Love's is at 247.5. Detroit ranks first in schedule-adjusted pass defense, per numberFire, but their defensive line has been wrecked by injuries, which should help even the playing field.

Of course, the run games of both teams could still take center stage, and Josh Jacobs ($12,500), Jahmyr Gibbs ($15,000), and David Montgomery ($12,000) all have MVP potential.

Jacobs has the best usage of the the trio due to Gibbs and Montgomery eating into each other's workloads. The Green Bay lead back has averaged 24.1 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) compared to 19.6 for Gibbs and 18.7 for Montgomery.

However, Gibbs still leads the group in scrimmage yards per game (104.6) over Jacobs (103.9) and Montgomery (83.1). Jacobs predictably has the highest red zone rush share (57.1%), though Montgomery isn't far behind (52.4%), and the two backs are the NFL's top two in rushes inside the 10-yard line this year.

Put it all together and any of these three could go off for a big outing. Jacobs' lack of competition on Green Bay puts him above the other two, and the Lions' d-line injuries should give him a boost, as well.

If we're taking a swing on a wideout, it has to be Amon-Ra St. Brown ($14,500). Detroit's inconsistent passing volume sometimes mutes his box-score results, but the market shares are there for spike weeks with a 28.0% target share, 32.0% air yards share, and 27.6% red zone target share.

Flex Targets

Jayden Reed ($11,000) -- With Romeo Doubs ruled out again, Reed is projected for double-digit FanDuel points, but it's hard to bump him up to fringe MVP territory after logging 23, 26, and 24 receiving yards over the last three games. While he did save his fantasy day last week with two touchdowns, that's obviously not something we can count on again. Reed was second in target share (21.4%) with Doubs out in Week 13, though, and his receiving yardage prop line (62.5) is second in the game behind just St. Brown (69.5).

Jameson Williams ($10,500) -- Since returning to the lineup, Williams has earned a 21.0% target share and 33.4% air yards share over the last four games, and he's even getting some designed run plays.

Christian Watson ($10,000) -- If we want to roll the dice on a contrarian MVP among the Packers' pass catchers, Watson might actually be the better choice than Reed. While his 14.3% target share in Week 13 was unremarkable, he also soaked up 49.6% of the air yards with 3 of his 4 targets behind downfield looks (10+ air yards). He doesn't have much of a floor, but the big-play potential is intriguing.

Tucker Kraft ($9,500) -- Although Kraft led Green Bay in target share last week (25.0%), the Lions have given up the fewest FanDuel points per game to tight ends. Overall, he has a 14.5% target share and 24.5% red zone target share this year, and he should probably be viewed as more of a touchdown-or-bust play.

Sam LaPorta ($9,500) -- LaPorta comically scored a pair of touchdowns in Week 13 despite otherwise catching just 3-of-6 targets for 6 yards. Since missing a game with a shoulder injury, he's seen an encouraging 84.0% route rate, 18.8% target share, and 33.3% red zone target share over the past two weeks, but it's led to just 25 total receiving yards.

Brandon McManus ($9,000) and Jake Bates ($9,000) -- The kickers likely take a backseat in a high-scoring game. That being said, both have a good shot of cracking double-digit FanDuel points, and kicking indoors certainly doesn't hurt.

Tim Patrick ($8,000) -- Patrick saw a 71.4% route rate in Week 13 and no longer has to compete with Kalif Raymond (injured reserve) for snaps. But he's behind St. Brown, Williams, and LaPorta in the pecking order, so he's still more of a dart throw.

Dontayvion Wicks ($7,500) -- Wicks projects for 5.9 targets with Doubs sidelined, making him an appealing value option at this salary. The floor has pretty much been zero for him, but he ran the second-most routes (82.1%) behind Watson last week.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.