Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 3

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

The Minnesota Timberwolves-Denver Nuggets series has turned into a major surprise with the T-Wolves holding a 2-0 lead following two away games. The lead is surprising enough, but the fashion of Minnesota's latest win was alarming for Denver.

The Timberwolves won by 26 points on the road as 7.5-point underdogs. After entering the series as the favorite, the Nuggets are now +490 to win the series when looking at FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA playoff odds. Minnesota sweeping 4-0 is also carrying the shortest odds among the correct score lines (+120).

This has not been the competitive, must-see series most expected. Will the tone flip in Game 3? The T-Wolves are now home, and Target Center should be rocking thanks to Minnesota's early dominance in the series.

Can Denver defy the odds and pull off the upset? Let's check out the matchup and analyze the available NBA odds at FanDuel.

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Playoffs Betting

Nuggets-Timberwolves Betting Odds

Date and Time: Friday, May 10th at 9:30 p.m. ET

Spread: Timberwolves -3.5 (-112)

Total: 205


  • Nuggets: +136
  • Timberwolves: -162

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings and pace via DunksAndThrees.

  • Nuggets:
    • nERD: 65.9 (4th)
    • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 118.3 (4th)
    • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 112.9 (9th)
    • Pace: 97.1 (27th)
    • Against-the-Spread Record: 37-42-3
  • Timberwolves:
    • nERD: 70.9 (3rd)
    • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 115.0 (17th)
    • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 108.9 (1st)
    • Pace: 97.7 (22nd)
    • Against-the-Spread Record: 40-41-1

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Best Bet

Timberwolves -3.5 (-112)

This is an absolute must-win situation for the Nuggets as no NBA team has ever come back and won from a 3-0 deficit. Denver's chances already look dire; only 7.3% of teams win a series after trailing 2-0. Plus, consider that both of these losses were at home for the Nuggets. It's not looking good.

There's a reason that Minnesota's odds to win this series have soared to -750. The T-Wolves even had the second-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals at +300. They've simply had the Nuggets' number all season, going 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in head-to-head matchups.

I believe this ATS trend will continue in Game 3. Minnesota should keep rolling at home considering how Game 2 panned out.

The Wolves have dominated Denver in the paint in back-to-back games. Minnesota won the points in the paint battle 52-42 in Game 1 and 52-34 in Game 2. The paint looked to be a major concern for the Nuggets entering Game 2 and continued to ring true.

Denver has not lost the paint battle in five of seven games in the postseason. Opponents are totaling 55.7 points in the paint per game in the playoffs against the Nuggets -- compared to their regular-season average of 50.8. The T-Wolves continue to be stingy around the rim, surrendering only 39.1 points in the paint per game.

Along with losing the battle of the paint, Denver has been outplayed in the backcourt. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is averaging only 5.5 points per game (PPG), and Jamal Murray has logged 12.5 PPG while shooting 28.1% from the field in this series. Even more concerning, Murray and Caldwell-Pope are questionable for tonight's contest.

If Murray and/or Caldwell-Pope are out, Christian Braun and Reggie Jackson would likely be the next guards to slide into the starting lineup. Both players are averaging under 15.0 minutes per game and 4.0 or less PPG in the postseason.

The Nuggets have been thoroughly outplayed and outmatched thus far, and injuries only make tonight's game even more alarming. Massey Ratings also agrees with the Timberwolves covering as they have a projected final of 108-101.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.