NHL Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Sunday 11/5/23

NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.

Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters.

Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.

Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate, find a goalie, some stacks, and some value plays for your NHL DFS lineups on FanDuel.

NHL DFS Picks

Goalie to Target

Lukas Dostal, Anaheim Ducks ($6,900)

You could make an argument that Lukas Dostal ($6,900) is the best process play on Sunday's slate, and he can be had at its lowest salary. That's how wonky this two-gamer is.

We ideally want goaltenders facing enough shot volume with the ability to keep the pucks out of the net. I think both situations are true here. The Anaheim Ducks allow 69.1 Corsi Against per 60 minutes, which is the third-worst mark in the NHL and worst on the slate. Even though the Vegas Golden Knights' Corsi For per 60 (55.5) is pretty poor in a vacuum, they can put some offense together here.

As for Dostal, he's 10th in the NHL in goals saved above expectation (5.98 GSAx) through six appearances. That checks the ability box.

I like the under in this game, so Dostal and Logan Thompson ($8,800) are my two considerations on the slate. I don't quite trust the Ducks' offense to give Thompson as much work, incentivizing a pivot from his high salary and popularity.

Stack

New Jersey Devils

The New Jersey Devils' offense is down its key man, Jack Hughes, due to an upper-body injury. Hughes has 20 points in 10 games and could be one of the most substantial injuries the league sees this year, and that could be an issue against stronger opponents for them soon. However, the Chicago Blackhawks are poor enough defensively to think they will still have a good bit of success today.

Specifically, Chicago has ceded the seventh-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.49) in the NHL this year, and tonight's projected netminder, Arvid Soderblom, hasn't done a notable job of keeping more pucks out of twine than expected at just 0.18 GSAx.

The dip in efficiency hurts, but it also does create notable opportunities for lower-salaried players. Dawson Mercer ($3,800) now anchors the top line and power-play unit around key scorers Tyler Toffoli ($6,800) and Timo Meier ($6,000). That proposition would be a gold mine on a larger slate where value was more crucial.

At defense, I prefer using salary on Dougie Hamilton ($6,100) and his gaudy TOI average (21:59) than Luke Hughes ($5,100). Hughes does anchor the power-play group, but this stack fits as smooth as silk into lineups with Mercer's salary, so I don't need to settle for his poorer TOI role (20:12).

Value Skaters

Trevor Zegras, C, Anaheim Ducks ($4,500)

There is no shortage of top-shelf options at low salaries today. More than perhaps another this season, this two-game slate might be one to leave salary on the table.

The line around this game, per the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, are incredibly fishy. There's a 6.5-goal total when the lowly Ducks have struggled to generate offense all year, and they're 61.3% implied to cover a one-goal spread. If you've got stones to trust the oddsmakers, targeting Anaheim at next-to-no popularity could be fruitful.

Their best pieces can be had for very little. Trevor Zegras ($4,500) and Troy Terry ($6,200) are the corollary forwards on their top even-strength and power-play lines, and the ever-present veteran Cam Fowler ($4,800) joins them on the blue line.

Zegras, specifically, is projected for 9.0 FanDuel points by numberFire's projections -- well worth this salary in a vacuum.

Nick Foligno, W, Chicago Blackhawks ($4,300)

If it's not broken from yesterday's value section, why fix it?

The Blackhawks didn't just contribute offensively as expected; they dominated the Florida Panthers and won 5-2. Outside of the prolific, young Connor Bedard ($7,100), the best pieces on this team come at miniscule salaries.

Take for example Nick Foligno ($4,300), who chipped in with a goal on Saturday. He's on Bedard's left wing at even strength and on the power play, and they're joined by Seth Jones ($5,600) at the point in both ice situations.

Yesterday was a bit surprising, but today, it's easy to see the 'Hawks finding the back of the net today. New Jersey's Vitek Vanecek has been dreadful, posting the 10th-worst GSAx (-2.52) in the NHL thus far. The effect of Hughes' absence on their defense is also yet to be seen.

I prefer stacking this game and using goalies from the other, which means I'll likely roster Foligno -- projected by numberFire for 9.5 FanDuel points -- once more.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.