NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 11/5/23

Sunday in the NHL during football season is usually quiet, and today is no different with just two games. How can we find value amongst them?

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

New Jersey Devils at Chicago Blackhawks

Blackhawks +1.5 (-138)
Tyler Toffoli 4+ Shots on Goal (+108)

The Chicago Blackhawks turned heads with a shocking 5-2 win over the mighty Florida Panthers on Saturday, and I'm not expecting them to get blasted today, either.

There's no doubt that the New Jersey Devils will certainly be limping into Chicago a bit. Their franchise player, Jack Hughes, "avoided the worst-case scenario" with an upper-body injury on Friday, but that almost certainly implies he'll still be out of the lineup a bit -- especially tonight. The former No. 1 pick has 20 points in 10 games this season; there aren't many more impactful injuries in the entire NHL.

The Devils' skaters have had to be at their best all season, so a dip from the 12th-best expected-goals-for rate (52.4 xGF%) in the NHL could be costly. Vitek Vanecek, tonight's projected starters, has been a disaster in the crease, posting the 10th-worst goals saved above expectation (-2.52 GSAx) in the league. Chicago's Arvid Soderblom (0.18 GSAx) has even comfortably outperformed him.

Hughes' absence is why the puckline is so close, and numberFire's model agrees. It sees Chicago covering the spread 59.3% of the time here.

As for who steps up in Hughes' stead, Tyler Toffoli makes as much sense as anyone. The top-line winger's 35 shots trail only Hughes (36) on the team, and that's worked out to an average of 3.5 per game. Chicago has the league's fifth-worst Corsi Allowed per 60 (67.7), so this is a plus matchup for scorers to put pucks on net. Plus money on Toffoli exceeding his season average in this spot seems like a tremendous proposition.

Vegas Golden Knights at Anaheim Ducks

Under 6.5 (-115)

The Vegas Golden Knights burned me yesterday; their torrid pace scorched the Colorado Avalanche, 7-0, and continued their unbeaten season.

Strange things happen on Sundays in Anaheim, but I won't turn to projecting an upset here despite a fishy line. FanDuel Sportsbook is implying the Anaheim Ducks -- with a three-day rest advantage -- keep this game within a tally 61.8% of the time. Golden Knights -1.5 (+134) should one of the most popular bets of the day, but proceed with caution.

Instead, I'll just take the under here in case this game lands on a one-goal margin. Goals should be difficult to come by.

Adin Hill (7.04 GSAx) got the start yesterday, so it'll likely be Logan Thompson (6.80) in Anaheim tonight. The difference between the two -- both ranked in the top 10 overall in GSAx -- is barely significant. However, it might be a surprise to some that Lukas Dostal of the Ducks has had so much success this season.

In six games, he's amassed 5.98 GSAx to rank 10th in the league himself. Dostal should get the start with plenty of rest between his last appearance.

Two top-10 goalies don't share a 6.5-goal total often. That's especially true when one of these teams is on tired legs, and the other is posting the second-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.68) in the league. If Anaheim covers, it's likely not lighting up one of the best scoring defenses in the league this season, so I'll take the under -- which could also hit in a Vegas cover -- instead.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.