NHL Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Saturday 11/4/23

NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.

Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters.

Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.

Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate, find a goalie, some stacks, and some value plays for your NHL DFS lineups on FanDuel.

NHL DFS Picks

Goalie to Target

Jacob Markstrom, Calgary Flames ($7,100)

With several high-profile stacks on this slate, it's always best to find a value goaltender that we can tolerate. I'm a step further with one I love today: Jacob Markstrom ($7,100).

I wrote up a case as to why the Calgary Flames were a good bet to win tonight's pick 'em against the Seattle Kraken, and a win bonus and decent outing is likely enough to justify rostering J.M. at this salary. However, his ceiling is truly that of an elite netminder to me.

Markstrom is fifth in the NHL in goals saved above expectation (7.04) through seven appearances, so he's performing at an elite level. The Kraken are also a phenomenal matchup for the purposes of NHL DFS. They get pucks on net with the league's 12th-highest Corsi For per 60 minutes (61.7), but they're not really quality looks. Seattle has posted the third-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.89) when factoring in the danger level of those chances.

Easy saves are king for this purpose, and Markstrom could pick up plenty -- with a win -- in Saturday's game.

Stacks

Pittsburgh Penguins

There's nothing I despise more in any DFS setting than laughably easy, unavoidable chalk. The San Jose Sharks have provided that all season, so we have to turn to the Pittsburgh Penguins on this slate.

San Jose just doesn't put up any defensive resistance. They're allowing a league-high 4.10 expected goals per 60 minutes, and their goaltending situation behind Mackenzie Blackwood (0.29 GSAx) hasn't nearly made up for those shortcomings. The Sharks were expected to tank entering the season after dealing Erik Karlsson ($6,800) to tonight's opponent, and they have.

Pittsburgh also has perfect correlation at even strength and with a man advantage across its top line. Sidney Crosby ($8,300), Jake Guentzel ($7,400), and Bryan Rust ($6,900) all form the forwards on those units. Karlsson joins them on the power play, but for salary savings, Kris Letang ($5,600) will get more burn with them at five-on-five.

Outside of the Toronto Maple Leafs, most of the usual top suspects have difficult matchups tonight. In fact, the Colorado Avalanche and Vegas Golden Knights face each other. Pittsburgh's salaries aren't extremely high in the sport's best matchup.

Los Angeles Kings

Things are about to get very ugly for the Philadelphia Flyers' goals against average (GAA).

Carter Hart has been keeping their defense afloat for years at this point, but Hart was injured on Thursday, and he'll leave behind what is now easily the league's worst tandem of goalies. Samuel Ersson is dead last in the NHL in GSAx (-6.97) among 66 qualifiers this season, and the team recalled former Los Angeles Kings goaltender Calvin Petersen from the AHL.

Short of an out-of-body experience in a revenge spot tonight, don't expect Petersen to save the day. He posted -10.12 GSAx in L.A. last season. As a result, the league's second-best offense in terms of expected goals per 60 minutes (3.79) should tee off on whomever has the misfortune of starting tonight.

The Kings' lines are tough to fully stack, but the core stack is pretty obvious. Anze Kopitar ($7,300) is still doing his thing anchoring the top line, and he's got Adrian Kempe ($6,900) as a winger on L.A.'s top even-strength and power-play units. These two are nearly always joined by blue-liner Drew Doughty ($5,000), whose salary is perpetually low despite a nice floor while averaging 26:15 TOI.

Kevin Fiala ($6,500) and Pierre-Luc Dubois ($5,300) join this trio with a man advantage; I'd turn to one of them ahead of Quinton Byfield ($3,700) on Kopitar's wing at five-on-five.

Value Skaters

Nick Foligno, W, Chicago Blackhawks ($4,100)

With a 6.5-goal total in a home game, there isn't a better value stack on the slate than the Chicago Blackhawks.

They'll battle the Florida Panthers, and I get it; Chicago is a value stack for a reason. They're posting just 2.78 expected goals per 60 minutes, but at least scoring expectations are modest with a 2.85 implied team total tonight. Their top pieces -- outside of Connor Bedard ($6,800) -- can be had for practically nothing.

Take for example Nick Foligno ($4,100). Foligno is on Bedard's left wing on the top even-strength line, and he anchors the power-play unit as Bedard slides to the point. The veteran is averaging 17:03 TOI, and in spots the Blackhawks offense will succeed, so should he. He posted 26 points in 60 games last year on the Boston Bruins' fourth line.

Bedard, Foligno, and Seth Jones ($5,100) fully correlate in the 'Hawks' premier spots; I'll go them to make room for the Pens and Kings.

Brayden Schenn, C, St. Louis Blues ($4,100)

I mostly try to stick to top lines in NHL DFS. They'll have most opportunity at even strength, on the power play, and especially in key spots like empty-net opportunities and overtime. However, the St. Louis Blues' lines are a bit backwards from conventional wisdom; I'd argue their "second" line is actually their first.

That's because Jordan Kyrou ($5,800), Brayden Schenn ($4,100), and Brandon Saad ($3,800) fully correlate across that "second" line, but they're on the top power-play unit. Schenn pounds a TOI average (17:21) that more similarly resembles a lead role. Even better, St. Louis plays Torey Krug ($4,000) on its second defense pairing, and Krug also joins them with a man advantage.

Therefore, we're getting the primary options for the Blues at insanely low salaries in a friendly matchup with the Montreal Canadiens tonight. Montreal goalie Jake Allen (6.84 GSAx) has been tough to crack, but the Habs have ceded the second-most expected goals per 60 (3.93) behind San Jose. These salaries come at a spot where high shot volume alone might work without scoring.

Schenn, specifically, is projected for 11.2 FanDuel points as one of the better values in numberFire's model, but I'll use this "second" unit in droves to squeeze in my top stacks.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.