NHL Betting Picks for Thursday 4/11/24: Will the Rangers Poor More Misery on the Flyers?

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz
NHL Betting Picks for Thursday 4/11/24: Will the Rangers Poor More Misery on the Flyers?

It may be Masters weekend, but in the NHL, teams are hoping to avoid golfing until the end of the playoffs. Tonight, we have 10 games, many with massive playoff implications.

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers

Rangers -1.5 (+118)

There are many divisional matchups today, and this is one of them.

The Philadelphia Flyers are in meltdown mode right now. They haven't won in their last eight games, and a few of them have been really ugly. They've allowed 5.23 goals per 60 minutes over this stretch of games.

It's not like they've been playing the best teams in the league during the losing streak. They gave up 10 combined goals to the Buffalo Sabres and Columbus Blue Jackets over the weekend and then hit a real low point on Tuesday. They lost to the Montreal Canadiens 9-3 in a completely embarrassing performance.

They'll now have to face the New York Rangers, who have the league's best record since February 1st. They've scored 3.70 goals per game in that span, the third-most in the NHL.

With the Flyers in freefall, I'll lay the 1.5 goals with the Rangers. They still have an incentive to win to get the number one seed in the East and play one of the weak wild card teams.

The model on numberFire likes the Rangers to cover this, as well, giving them a 50.92% chance of hitting this bet. That's good for an 11% return on your investment at these odds.

Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning

Over 6.5 Goals (-124)

This is a divisional game with less importance for either team, which plays into our handicapping. Teams with less to play for are less detail-oriented, and that normally leads to weaker defensive play.

Weaker defensive play would not be welcomed for the Ottawa Senators, who already allow the fifth-most goals per game in the NHL. That's largely due to their goaltending and particularly Thursday's starting netminder Anton Forsberg, who has been the fourth-worst goalie by goals saved above expected (GSAx) per 60 minutes.

That doesn't bode well for them against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Tampa is fifth in the NHL in goals per game and has the red-hot Nikita Kucherov going for the scoring title.

The Lightning also have question marks over their goaltender. Essentially being locked into the first wild card spot in the East, they've decided to give Andrei Vasilevskiy a rest. That means Matt Tomkins will be starting, and he's allowed -2.1 GSAx in just four games this season.

The Sens are capable of scoring goals despite being towards the bottom of the standings. They should be able to do it here against a Tampa team that's not great defensively.

This bet has the model's approval, as well, with the over having a 62.15% chance of hitting in this game. That would give us a 12.3% return if we get the -124 line.

New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs

Over 6.5 Goals (-110)

We'll go with another over for our final pick of the day.

It's unfortunate for the New Jersey Devils that they will be without Jack Hughes for the remainder of the season. But they still have the firepower to score goals, especially because Timo Meier has seemingly found his game.

They faced these same Toronto Maple Leafs on Tuesday night and lost 5-2. That was the second time in the last two weeks that these teams have had a game go over the 6.5 total.

The Leafs are definitely a team we like to bet the over on in most games. They have scored the third-most goals per game while being right in the middle of the pack defensively, allowing the 16th-most goals per game.

Toronto has the added element of Auston Matthews trying to go for 70 goals in the last four games of the season. He currently sits at 66 goals and would be the first player since 1993 to reach the 70 mark.

The Devils are the perfect team for Matthews to potentially rack up the goals against. They have allowed the sixth-most goals per game this season.

We have the blessing of the model here again, as this bet is projected to have a 22.6% return.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.