NFL Wild Card Betting Picks: Packers at Cowboys

With Week 18 behind us, the NFL is transitioning to the postseason with six Wild Card games taking place this weekend.

The NFC features a familiar playoff matchup with the Green Bay Packers traveling to take on the Dallas Cowboys. The two NFC foes met in the 2014 and 2016 playoffs, and Green Bay emerged victorious from both clashes. Despite this matchup carrying the second-highest spread of the weekend with Dallas tabbed as 7.5-point favorites, this could be one of the most intriguing games in the Wild Card Round.

The Cowboys are hoping to finally make a deep playoff run after earning the No. 2 seed by winning the NFC East. Since their last Super Bowl win in the 1995-96 season, Dallas has secured a top-two seed on only three occasions -- including this season. In 2007 and 2016, the Cowboys did not win one playoff game as a No. 1 seed. Dallas is looking to finally grab a win with a top-two seed and potentially make their first deep postseason run since 1996.

Green Bay could be a dangerous first-round matchup for the Cowboys. The Packers have hit their stride over the last three weeks, winning three consecutive games while averaging 27.7 points per game (PPG). Jordan Love has been excellent in the second half of the season, and top-tier quarterback play is typically a recipe for success in the NFL playoffs.

Will Green Bay make this matchup more interesting than most expect? Let's break down the matchup and look at what could be the best bets offered by FanDuel Sportsbook.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys: Spread, Moneyline, and Total

Spread: Dallas -7.5 (-105)

Moneyline:

• Dallas -405
• Green Bay +320

Total: 50.5

Packers-Cowboys Best Bets

Packers +7.5 (-115)

The Cowboys opened as 8.0-point favorites, which quickly dropped to 7.5. The point spread has held steady since, but most of the money is still on the Packers with -115 odds to cover. Ahead of Sunday's matchup at 4:30 p.m. ET, this line could continue to drop in Green Bay's favor.

It could be wise to back the Pack before the point spread potentially drops once more. Green Bay certainly has a good chance of making this close thanks to the offense's recent level of play.

First off, Love has been elite at the QB position. Since Week 11, he has 0.22 expected points added per dropback (EPA/DB) and has posted at least 0.30 EPA/DB for three consecutive weeks. For reference, Brock Purdy has the top EPA/DB of the season (0.24) followed by Dak Prescott's second-best mark (0.17). Love has truly been playing like one of the league's best signal-callers.

Dallas' pass defense has been excellent as numberFire's sixth-best schedule-adjusted unit. Of course, the dominant pass rush led by Micah Parsons (14.0 sacks) has greatly helped the secondary with the top pass rush win rate in the league. However, Green Bay could have the tools to slow the feared pass rush with the second-best pass block win rate and third-fewest sacks allowed per game.

If given time, Love could shred the Cowboys' defense. The Packers also average the ninth-most rushing yards per carry, which could be key in exposing one of Dallas' worries for the postseason.

The Cowboys have the 11th-best adjusted run defense, and they give up the 18th-most rushing yards per carry and the 17th-most rushing yards per game. Green Bay's run game has really ramped up over the last three weeks, averaging 154.3 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry. They are also averaging 33.3 carries per game during this span -- compared to 25.9 carries per game on the season (11th-fewest).

Aaron Jones has been like a bull in a china shop, posting 119.3 rushing yards per game, 5.7 yards per carry, and 26.7 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) over the last three games. Plus, the Packers could potentially return A.J. Dillon, who missed Week 18 with a neck injury.

The potential advantages on offense just keep stacking up for Green Bay. Perhaps Dallas' biggest strength on defense has been their ability to produce splash plays with the 12th-most takeaways per game and a league-best five pick-sixes. The Packers average the sixth-fewest giveaways per contest and have totaled only 0.8 turnovers per game over the last month of play.

Ultimately, Green Bay's offense is rolling at the perfect time and could find plenty of success against the Cowboys. This could be a scary first-round matchup for Dallas, as the Packers seemed poised for a cover. Taking Green Bay to even cover an alternate spread -- such as +6.5 (+114) or +4.5 (+152) -- could yield great results.

Over 50.5 (-114)

Thus far, I've solely focused on Green Bay's offense. As numberFire's 2nd-best offense, the Cowboys should also light up the scoreboard, as the Packers have the 11th-worst adjusted defense rating.

As previously mentioned, Dak has the second-best EPA/DB on the season. With 0.29 EPA/DB over Prescott's last five home games, he could have another monster outing in AT&T Stadium with the Packers holding the 10th-worst mark in EPA/DB allowed. CeeDee Lamb will also likely pose a problem, as he is averaging 156.3 scrimmage yards over his last three games.

Dallas' offense had more balance last week with 131 rushing yards and 4.5 yards per carry. Rico Dowdle was impressive with 5.6 RYOE, and Tony Pollard had his highest rushing yard total (70) since Week 12. Green Bay has numberFire's 12th-worst adjusted run defense and gives up the 10th-most yards per rushing attempt. This is pretty much on par with the Cowboys' Week 18 opponent -- the Washington Commanders -- who allow the seventh-most rushing yards per carry.

Similar to the Packers' offense, Dallas should find success when it comes to finding the end zone. The Cowboys average 37.4 PPG in home games; this is why Dallas clinching the No. 2 seed was such a big deal. The Cowboys' Super Bowl odds fell to +750 since they could have at least two home playoff games.

The 50.5 total is the second-highest number for the Wild Card games behind the Los Angeles Rams-Detroit Lions at 51.5. I'm still not shying away from the over. Love and Prescott could have a must-see duel in a shootout, and both run games have favorable matchups.

If you're betting on any of Saturday, January 13th's NFL playoff action, you can take advantage of FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL Playoffs No-Sweat Same Game Parlay. Check the promotions page for more information.

Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.