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NFL Week 11 Spread and Total Predictions for Every Game
In the NFL, you're never lacking in prediction models to try to give you an idea of what to expect in a given week, whether those models are for betting or other purposes.
Below, we're going to run through what my spread and total models say about Week 11's NFL games.
As a disclaimer, this is my own, personal betting model. I'll lay out which bets I'm willing to make based on it compared to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds, but as always, you'll have to decide for yourself whether there's enough value for you to the plunge, as well.
The spread model is largely based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model, which is their version of EPA. The totals model factors in things such as pace and wind speed, as well. Numbers are manually edited to reflect the players who are expected to play in a given game.
Without further ado, here's what I've got for this upcoming slate of games.
NFL Week 11 Predictions
Jets at Patriots Prediction
Spread Prediction: Patriots -10.7
Total Prediction: 48.2
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Think the model's expectations for the New York Jets' offense are too lofty without Garrett Wilson. Still don't hate backing the over, given how effective the New England Patriots' offense should be in this spot.
Commanders vs. Dolphins Prediction
Spread Prediction: Commanders -1.1
Total Prediction: 46.5
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Even with some key wins recently, I can't get behind having the Miami Dolphins as 2.5-point favorites at a neutral site. The Washington Commanders' defense is horrible and beat up, but I'm still willing to back them here.
Bears at Vikings Prediction
Spread Prediction: Bears -0.6
Total Prediction: 43.5
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: The Chicago Bears' offense has been volatile, which is scary as they prepare to face a Brian Flores defense. I think we can exploit that volatility, though. If you think they perform well, you can bet the Bears' spread or moneyline. If you don't, I'm showing value in the under, as well.
Packers at Giants Prediction
Spread Prediction: Packers -6.9
Total Prediction: 46.5
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: These numbers are assuming that Jameis Winston starts for the New York Giants. Winston tends to play in chaotic games, so I don't mind taking the value the model is showing in the over.
Panthers at Falcons Prediction
Spread Prediction: Falcons -4.7
Total Prediction: 44.3
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Chargers at Jaguars Prediction
Spread Prediction: Chargers -3.5
Total Prediction: 44.1
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Bengals at Steelers Prediction
Spread Prediction: Steelers -3.8
Total Prediction: 45.6
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Projected 17 mph winds are driving the value I'm showing in the under here.
Buccaneers at Bills Prediction
Spread Prediction: Bills -5.5
Total Prediction: 49.2
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Texans at Titans Prediction
Spread Prediction: Texans -9.8
Total Prediction: 39.3
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: This number assumes that C.J. Stroud starts for the Houston Texans.
Seahawks at Rams Prediction
Spread Prediction: Rams -3.5
Total Prediction: 50.6
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
49ers at Cardinals Prediction
Spread Prediction: 49ers -1.0
Total Prediction: 46.6
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: This assumes that both Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall remain out. I'll give the San Francisco 49ers a bump if either of them is able to go. This number does reflect Marvin Harrison Jr.'s absence.
Chiefs at Broncos Prediction
Spread Prediction: Chiefs -3.0
Total Prediction: 47.9
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: The injuries to the Denver Broncos' defense have me willing to back the over here.
Ravens at Browns Prediction
Spread Prediction: Ravens -6.3
Total Prediction: 39.3
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: This is a lot of points for the Cleveland Browns to catch in projected 20 mph winds. I just don't know if I have the stomach to take them.
Lions at Eagles Prediction
Spread Prediction: Lions -1.9
Total Prediction: 49.1
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Even if Lane Johnson plays, he seems unlikely to be 100%. I've given the Philadelphia Eagles' defense a boost due to all of their additions, but the Detroit Lions have just done much more to impress me this year.
Cowboys at Raiders Prediction
Spread Prediction: Cowboys -4.2
Total Prediction: 47.2
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: I've been wary of unders in Dallas Cowboys games this year, but I do think the Quinnen Williams trade could make their contests at least a bit less chaotic.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
