NFL MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen Among the Early MVP Favorites for 2024

Aidan McGrath
Aidan McGrath@ffaidanmcgrath
NFL MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen Among the Early MVP Favorites for 2024

The 2024 NFL Draft is now in the rearview mirror, meaning we can officially start looking forward to the NFL season. Teams will spend the rest of the summer working out their final 53-man rosters -- and we'll spend the rest of the summer analyzing their outlooks and chances for the upcoming campaign.

While the draft always provides plenty of shakeup throughout the league, our MVP frontrunners should remain pretty steady throughout the offseason. Even this year's lauded rookie quarterback class is virtually off the MVP radar with Caleb Williams' MVP odds ranking outside the top 20.

So which quarterbacks do have the best odds to take home the NFL Most Valuable Player Award in the 2024 season? Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL MVP odds market to find out.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.


Patrick MahomesKansas City Chiefs+650
Josh AllenBuffalo Bills+800
C.J. StroudHouston Texans+1000
Joe BurrowCincinnati Bengals+1000
Lamar JacksonBaltimore Ravens+1300
Jordan LoveGreen Bay Packers+1400
Justin HerbertLos Angeles Chargers+1400
View Full Table

Patrick Mahomes (+650)

Patrick Mahomes might actually be the greatest quarterback of all time, so it makes sense he's the early frontrunner to win MVP. The 28-year-old has guided his Kansas City Chiefs at least as far as the AFC Championship game in all six of his seasons as the starter, and he has already won three Super Bowl titles. One more championship and he'll tie Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana for the second-most rings all-time.

The MVP award usually goes to the quarterback of the winningest team in the league. Not only is Mahomes supernaturally gifted when it comes to playing football, but he also has the benefit of playing for a Chiefs team that surrendered the second-fewest points across the 2023 season.

The Chiefs could have a good chance of running it back this year. Their Win Total line is set at 11.5 wins, tying them with two other teams for the highest bar to clear in the league. Given that the team's 11-6 record in 2023 was their "worst" record since Mahomes took over, they have a good shot of finishing over that mark and putting Mahomes in prime position to grab a third MVP award.

Josh Allen (+800)

The NFL Salieri to Mahomes' Mozart, Buffalo Bills star quarterback Josh Allen has the second-shortest odds to win the MVP award this season. Since entering the league, Allen has routinely made the kinds of jaw-dropping plays that many other NFL-caliber quarterbacks can only dream of making. He has been in the mix for MVP honors in recent years, receiving votes in three of his last four campaigns and even finishing second in the voting process in 2020.

If the Bills do put together the kind of season we typically see from teams that produce MVP winners, there's a good chance it will be a result of Allen putting the team on his shoulders.

Salary cap issues (among other reasons) led to the team losing both Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis this offseason, leaving their wide receiver room looking quite different entering the season. They'll be banking on a step forward from third-year slot wideout Khalil Shakir and rookie second-round pick Keon Coleman to help Allen move the sticks, as well as tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox.

Allen could be forced into doing a lot more this season, too. The Bills parted ways with both of their 2023 starting safeties, one of their former top defensive backs, and a prominent member of their defensive line. If we get points-chasing Josh Allen this year, he could make a pretty undeniable case for MVP just off of his own raw production.

C.J. Stroud (+1000)

Speaking of Stefon Diggs, his new quarterback has climbed in the MVP odds ranks and is now tied for the third-shortest odds to win. Houston Texans second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud is fresh off of a shocking debut campaign that saw him win Offensive Rookie of the Year and even earn the eighth-most MVP votes.

The Texans entered the 2023 season with +20000 odds of winning the Super Bowl, but Stroud's emergence helped them make the playoffs for the first time since 2019. If he can take another step forward in his second season, there's no telling how exciting the team could be in 2024. The Texans are now the favorites to win the AFC South with +105 odds and have the ninth-shortest Super Bowl odds (+1600).

After putting up 4,108 passing yards -- the third-most by a rookie in NFL history -- Stroud's 2024 Passing Yardage prop is set at 4,050.5 yards. Only three other quarterbacks have higher lines at this stage of the offseason. Expectations are clearly sky-high for Stroud's second season, but the pieces are in place for him and the Texans to take the AFC South by storm.

Joe Burrow (+1000)

Can we please just get one normal, healthy season for Joe Burrow? Apart from his very first offseason -- which was odd in its own right -- the Cincinnati Bengals star has yet to enter any of the last three seasons with a clean bill of health.

In 2021, Burrow was still recovering from the ACL injury that ended his solid rookie year. In 2022, he underwent emergency appendectomy surgery in training camp. And last year, a calf strain held him out of training camp and severely limited him throughout the season.

When Burrow did finally seem to be getting back on track last year, he suffered a season-ending wrist injury in Week 11. Fortunately, he's already throwing again and should (fingers crossed) be able to work through a full offseason program.

Healthy Joe Burrow is a force to be reckoned with. The Bengals are 22-10 in his two healthy seasons and went deep into the playoffs in both of those campaigns. He runs efficient offenses, rarely turns the ball over, and is one of the most clutch quarterbacks when the game is on the line -- not unlike a former New England Patriots quarterback who claimed MVP honors three separate times during his career.

Longshot to Consider: Kirk Cousins (+4000)

As we mentioned before, the MVP award often goes to the quarterback on one of the winningest teams in the league. Over the last 10 seasons, the winners have hailed from teams that have averaged 13 wins. Only one winner played on a team with fewer than 12 wins while seven winners won at least 13 games.

With that in mind, I am liking Kirk Cousins -- now of the Atlanta Falcons -- as a potential MVP dark horse candidate.

The Falcons have the benefit of playing in the NFC South, which has for years been among the least-competitive divisions. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints tied to lead the division with 9-8 records last year, while in the previous season, the Bucs won at 8-9. After signing with the team in free agency, Cousins appears to be the clear top quarterback in the division and could help them rack up wins in a relatively easy division.

Only the Chiefs (-230) and the San Francisco 49ers (-195) have shorter Division Winner odds than Atlanta (-120). Between playing in a softer division and coming off of a third-place division finish last year, the Falcons could be looking at one of the softer schedules league-wide when the NFL officially drops the 2024 schedule -- which will come later this month.

The Falcons' Win Total line is set at 9.5 wins. As of this writing, the market is leaning towards the over (-148) on that prop. Even with their confusing 2024 NFL Draft selections, people are slowly warming up to the idea that the Falcons could be a legit team this season. If they really break out, Cousins' ability to put up respectable passing numbers could put him in the MVP conversation by the end of the year.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.