NFL Draft Position Betting: Will Michael Penix Jr. Be a First-Round Pick?

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin@skyler_carlin

The 2024 NFL Draft is scheduled to begin next Thursday with the Chicago Bears on the clock with the No. 1 overall pick. Similar to most years, quarterbacks are expected to be the popular choice early in the draft -- especially with the uncertainty surrounding next year's class of signal-callers.

Michael Penix Jr. is an interesting quarterback prospect who could see a massive shift in where he's selected depending on what happens early in the first round. Could the left-handed signal-caller out of Washington be a first-round pick following a loss in the National Championship?

While trying to predict where the incoming rookie quarterbacks land, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering an array of NFL Draft odds markets. This includes a market where certain states can wager on the over/under on where Penix -- and other notable prospects -- will be picked.

Given the fact that Penix's over/under on draft position is perched at 32.5 -- with the over and under sitting at -114 odds -- let's dive into both outcomes.

NFL Draft Odds

Michael Penix Jr. Draft Position Over/Under

Why Michael Penix Jr. Could Go Before Pick 32.5 (-114)

Even with the active part of free agency being a thing of the past, there are still teams seeking a new quarterback in the NFL. With teams seemingly not overly excited about next year's class of quarterbacks, we could see organizations be more aggressive to add a signal-caller in the 2024 NFL Draft.

The first three picks of this year's draft are the Bears, Washington Commanders, and New England Patriots -- teams all in the market for a quarterback. While Caleb Williams has the shortest odds to be the first overall pick (-20000) by a massive margin, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and J.J. McCarthy are expected to be taken shortly after.

After those four quarterbacks are off the board, the consensus belief is that either Bo Nix or Penix will be the fifth quarterback taken. Ahead of the draft, I have also taken a look at Nix's over/under on draft position, which is set at 32.5 -- just like Penix's. However, the over on Nix's draft position is standing at -220 odds.

Seeing that there are -250 odds for over 4.5 quarterbacks to be drafted in the first round, the expectation is for Nix and/or Penix to hear their name called early, and the individual draft position markets give Penix a much better chance to be that fifth QB.

Besides the teams mentioned above, the Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders, and New York Giants are known to be doing their due diligence on this year's class of quarterbacks.

Penix enjoyed a fantastic conclusion to his collegiate career, completing 65.4% of his passing attempts for 4,903 yards, 36 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions last year. The lefty quarterback showed off his rocket arm at Washington, leading all of college football with 117 pass attempts of 20-plus yards in 2023, via PFF.

With the Vikings possessing two first-round picks and teams potentially moving back into the first round to select a quarterback, there is undoubtedly a chance of Penix hearing his name called in Round 1.

Why Michael Penix Jr. Could Go After Pick 32.5 (-114)

The numbers that Penix posted in his final two years at Washington are impressive as he combined for 9,544 passing yards, 67 passing touchdowns, and 19 interceptions in that span. The football seems to explode off Penix's hand when he pinpoints his target, and there's a good chance his sights are set down the field.

While his production in recent years and his arm are reasons to have optimism in Penix's outlook in the NFL, there are still question marks surrounding the incoming rookie. For starters, Penix suffered two torn ACLs and two shoulder ailments at Indiana before transferring to Washington.

Will Penix's body be able to withstand the rigors of the NFL and allow him to experience a long career? That remains to be seen as Penix will already be turning 24 years old -- which is considered old in football years for a first-year quarterback -- shortly after the 2024 NFL Draft.

Another concern for Penix is his metrics when he's being pressured. Among quarterbacks with 50-plus dropbacks under pressure in 2023, Penix finished with only the 82nd-best completion percentage (41.8%) along with just six touchdowns and five interceptions in these situations.

Against Michigan in the National Championship, Penix struggled when the Wolverines dialed up exotic blitzes and pressured him often as he completed just 52.9% of his passes for 255 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions.

There are undoubtedly going to be teams who would love to add Penix to their roster via the draft. On the other hand, those same teams may prefer to use a second-round pick on Penix rather than spend a first-round pick on him due to his age and injury history.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.