NFL Draft Position Betting: Will J.J. McCarthy Go in the Top 5?

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD
NFL Draft Position Betting: Will J.J. McCarthy Go in the Top 5?

The 2024 NFL Draft is less than a week away. The first round is set for Thursday, April 25th from Detroit, Michigan.

While there isn't much debate about who is going No. 1, the rest of the top is less set in stone. This looks to be one of the most quarterback-heavy top-fives in recent memory, with Caleb Williams (-20000 to go first), Jayden Daniels (-6000 to go top five), and Drake Maye (-2000 to go top five) all heavy favorites to go early.

But then there's J.J. McCarthy.

The former Michigan Wolverines signal-caller has skyrocketed up draft boards since winning the National Championship in January. As of April 18th, McCarthy's draft position over/under is set at 5.5 via the NFL Draft odds on FanDuel Sportsbook. The under is -140, while the over is +106.

Let's dive into the J.J. McCarthy Draft Position market and break down where we can find value on FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL Draft Odds

J.J. McCarthy Draft Position Over/Under

Why J.J. McCarthy Could Go Before Pick 5.5 (-140)

J.J. McCarthy is a fascinating prospect.

The youngest quarterback in this class (21.2 years old), McCarthy played sparingly as a true freshman in 2021 before starting each of the last two seasons at Michigan. He broke out this past season, completing 72.1% of his passes for 2,991 yards, 22 touchdowns, and just 4 interceptions.

His 90.6 PFF grade ranked 16th of 307 quarterbacks.

As a starter, McCarthy finished his college career with a 27-1 record, three Big Ten Conference titles, and a National Championship. He's been touted as the best Michigan quarterback ever, and it's easy to see why he's flown up draft boards. He's battle-tested, confident, and comes from a pro-style system -- all traits NFL front offices love.

Prospect-wise, McCarthy's analytical profile is second in the class, according to Jim Sannes' quarterback model.

But in terms of actual draft position, is he a deserving -140 favorite to go in the top five?

I think so. We know the Chicago Bears are going with Caleb Williams at the 1.01, and it's safe to assume the Washington Commanders will select a quarterback second overall, too. They recently brought Daniels, Maye, and McCarthy in for a joint visit -- an unorthodox approach but one that suggests they're not yet set on which young arm they'll take at No. 2.

McCarthy is +2000 to be the No. 2 pick, but PFF's latest mock has McCarthy going second.

If the Commanders go a different direction, McCarthy still has three more chances to be selected in the top five. The New England Patriots need a quarterback, and they've shown interest in McCarthy. They have the second-shortest odds to draft McCarthy (+300).

New England is also open to trading out of No. 3. That would be the most likely scenario for McCarthy going fourth or fifth, too, because the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Chargers already have franchise quarterbacks.

The Minnesota Vikings are the favorite to select McCarthy at +160, and the New York Giants are right behind at +380. Both are outside the top five currently but could trade up to select their quarterback of the future. Peter Schrager's latest mock draft predicts New York moving up to No. 4 to select McCarthy.

While -140 for McCarthy to go under pick 5.5 isn't great value, the number of quarterback-needy teams at the top certainly makes this an intriguing line.

Why J.J. McCarthy Could Go After Pick 5.5 (+106)

For as much as the quarterbacks have been talked up, an absolutely loaded receiver class is likely the biggest factor in whether or not J.J. McCarthy goes outside the top five.

If we assume picks 1-3 will all be quarterbacks, there's a real chance McCarthy is the odd man out. CBS Sports' latest consensus mock -- taken from 12 different analysts from across the industry -- has Williams, Daniels, and Maye going in the top three. That's the -145 favorite for the top 3 overall picks exact order on FanDuel Sportsbook, too.

Assuming that holds true, McCarthy's under is entirely reliant on either Arizona or LA trading out of their top-five pick.

There's sure to be a market for those picks, but there's certainly a world where they each stand pat. Marvin Harrison Jr. is a -230 favorite to be selected fourth, while Malik Nabers is a +250 favorite to go fifth.

Both wideouts are highly regarded prospects who would fit right into Arizona and LA.

We also know Jim Harbaugh loves his offensive lineman, and top tackle Joe Alt is +380 to be drafted No. 5 overall -- ahead of McCarthy (+450).

If the Cardinals and Chargers end up not trading down, this +106 number could prove to be great value for J.J. McCarthy to be selected over pick 5.5. We know the top three will likely be quarterbacks, so this market boils down to whether McCarthy can edge out one of Daniels or Maye, or whether the Cardinals/Chargers trade out of the top five.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets when you place your first bet of at least $5 —win or lose! See the promotions page for more information.

Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.