NFL Draft Betting: Odds to Be a Top-10 Pick

Aidan McGrath
Aidan McGrath@ffaidanmcgrath
NFL Draft Betting: Odds to Be a Top-10 Pick

The 2024 NFL Draft is just around the corner -- Round 1 is set to start on Thursday, April 25th.

There's some legitimate top-end talent slated to go early in this year's class, headlined by potential future stars like Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr., Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and Malik Nabers. While it feels like those guys are close to locks to be top-10 picks, things start to get really interesting after that.

Which other players have the best odds to become a top-10 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft? Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL Draft odds market and take a look.

NFL Draft Odds

Odds to Be a Top-10 Pick

Malik NabersWR-3500
Rome OdunzeWR-950
J.J. McCarthyQB-900
Joe AltOL-750
Dallas TurnerED-125
Brock BowersTE+115
Olu FashanuOL+170
View Full Table

We listed five names above who seem like virtual locks to be drafted in the first 10 picks. Only one of those names (Nabers) even has odds listed in this market, and at -3500, he's a pretty safe bet to go in the top 10.

After Nabers, three players are between -950 and -750 to be a top-10 selection -- Rome Odunze (-950), J.J. McCarthy (-900), and Joe Alt (-750). Alt (offensive tackle) and Odunze (wide receiver) are premiere talents at their positions and feel like they could safely go in the top 10 picks. Both play highly sought-after positions that we regularly see teams target with high-value picks in the NFL Draft, so it's no surprise to see them with such strong odds to got top 10.

Taking a step back, let's assume we know 8 players who will go in the top 10 -- all of the players we've mentioned already. That leaves just two potential remaining slots for top 10 picks. Taking those limited spaces into account, which bets make the most sense to round out the top 10?

Brock Bowers (+115)

If every team in the league drafted solely off of "best player available" metrics, Georgia Bulldogs tight end Brock Bowers would be a lock as a top-10 pick in this year's draft class. He is one of the premiere pass-catching talents in the class and by far the most exciting tight end prospect we're looking at this year.

That position designation is where the concern comes in. Tight ends don't often find themselves drafted this highly, and the ones who do have often struggled to live up to expectations. Each of T.J. Hockenson, Kyle Pitts, and Eric Ebron -- the last three tight ends we've seen come off the board in the top 10 -- faced scrutiny early in their careers despite putting up respectable numbers. Their overall reception in the NFL could dissuade some general managers from taking Bowers.

That said, Bowers looks like a potentially game-changing playmaker. He led Georgia in receiving in all three of his collegiate seasons -- including this past year, despite missing several games with an ankle injury. He flashed the kind of speed we rarely see from tight ends, as evidenced by his career rushing line -- he took 19 carries for 193 yards and 5 scores, averaging 10.2 yards per tote.

The top end of this year's draft class is loaded with potential stars, but a talent like Bowers has the tools to be a top-10 pick. We don't see a lot of tight end prospects get drafted this highly, but Bowers looks better on paper and on the screen than the ones we've seen go that highly before him.

Troy Fautanu (+600)

It's hard to look at the teams drafting in the top 10 this year and find a team that doesn't need extra help on the offensive line, so it's mildly surprising that only Joe Alt has decent odds to go top 10. In fact, of the teams currently holding picks 1 through 10, only the Los Angeles Chargers ranked better than 20th in the NFL in sack rate allowed, and even the Chargers could use a bit of refurbishing up front.

The top of the draft board looks relatively penciled in right now -- picks 1 through 3 belong to teams that need quarterbacks, and picks 4 through 6 belong to teams that need wide receivers. Picks seven through 10 belong to the Tennessee Titans, Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, and New York Jets. Each of those teams will have their starting QB locked in by that point in the draft and already have at least one legit wide receiver under contract for the 2024 season. This spot in the first is where the run on offensive lineman could start.

Troy Fautanu has the fourth-shortest odds to go inside the top 10. But each of The Athletic's Dane Brugler and ESPN have him graded as the second-best OL in the class while PFF graded him as their third-ranked offensive lineman. It seems like the leading draft analysts like him more than early bettors have, and it is possible his odds haven't quite caught up yet.

That could likely be because of his alignment on the offensive line -- Fautanu played guard in college while some of the other top prospects played tackle. But looking at the teams drafting seven through 10, each of them arguably has a stronger need at guard than tackle. We don't often see guards go ahead of tackles this high up in drafts, but this feels like a spot where it could happen.

Bets on either of Olu Fashanu (+170) or Taliese Fuaga (+200) make plenty of sense here given their talent and the needs of the teams picking in the top 10 -- Fautana just seems like a good value bet compared to his peers at his current +600 odds. Offensive line can be a "only as strong as your weakest link" position, and if Fautana is as good as NFL Draft analysts believe he is, he could go ahead of his tackle-playing peers.

Brian Thomas Jr. (+1100)

If you're looking for a long shot, Louisiana State Tigers wideout Brian Thomas Jr. (+1100) could be a sneaky pick to go top 10.

Thomas didn't generate quite the same hype as teammates Malik Nabers or Jayden Daniels during the Tigers' 2023 season, but he has been generating buzz throughout the buildup to the NFL Draft.

Thomas produced 1,177 yards and a whopping 17 touchdowns off his 68 junior-season receptions while vying for targets alongside Nabers, one of the premiere talents in the class. He tested like an elite athlete at the NFL Combine, blazing a 4.33-second 40-yard dash while impressing with his jumps, as well.

The NFL has grown increasingly infatuated with wide receivers in recent years -- especially fast wide receivers. Thomas punished college defenses with his speed -- he caught 15 of his 22 deep targets for a 68.72% receptions rate (7th-best in the NCAA) while recording a higher clip in yards per route run on those targets (30.5) than even Nabers.

In another draft class, Thomas could hypothetically have pretty strong odds to go top 10 based on his production and athleticism. He just happens to have declared in a year with three other top-level wideouts as well as a handful of high-caliber quarterback prospects. Even with potentially eight other blue chip-level players in the class, Thomas could still sneak into the top 10 this year.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.