NBA Play-In Tournament: Warriors vs. Kings Betting Picks

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NBA Play-In Tournament: Warriors vs. Kings Betting Picks

With the Western Conference being ultra-competitive during the 2023-24 NBA season, the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings are squaring off against each other in one of the play-in games. Despite the Warriors and Kings both having a 46-36 record -- and going 2-2 against one another in the regular season -- Sacramento is the No. 9 seed due to having a best division record than Golden State.

This is a rematch of last year's thrilling first-round series that went seven games, with the Warriors emerging victorious. Can the Kings get their revenge versus an experienced Warriors team? Or will Golden State's championship background prevail once again?

Let's take a look at Tuesday's play-in game between the Warriors and Kings while discussing the best bets for what should be an action-packed contest.

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Play-In Tournament Betting Picks

Warriors-Kings Betting Odds

Date and Time: Tuesday, April 16th at 10:10 p.m. ET

Spread: Warriors -2.0 (-112)

Total: 223 (-110)

Moneyline:

Warriors: -138
Kings: +118

Warriors vs. Kings Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings, pace, and shot distribution via DunksAndThrees.

Golden State Warriors:
- nERD: 56.2 (15th)
- Adjusted Offensive Rating: 115.6 (9th)
- Adjusted Defensive Rating: 113.9 (15th)
- Pace: 102.1 (1st)
- Against-the-Spread Record: 42-38-2
- Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
  - Rim: 30.7% (26th) - 67.1% (2nd)
  - Mid: 21.4% (4th) - 41.2% (25th)
  - 3PT: 47.9% (3rd) - 38.5% (2nd)
Sacramento Kings:
- nERD: 53.6 (18th)
- Adjusted Offensive Rating: 119.0 (1st)
- Adjusted Defensive Rating: 116.8 (25th)
- Pace: 100.6 (11th)
- Against-the-Spread Record: 42-39-1
- Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
  - Rim: 35.2% (14th) - 66.4% (4th)
  - Mid: 22.5% (7th) - 46.5% (3rd)
  - 3PT: 42.3% (5th) - 36.9% (9th)

Warriors vs. Kings Best Bets

Over 223.0 (-110)

Playoff basketball can sometimes lead to teams playing slower and more methodical as every possession could be the difference between going home or staying alive. Although that may be the case in some situations, the Warriors and Kings are poised to be involved in a track meet on Tuesday.

During the regular season, Golden State and Sacramento met four times, totaling 236-plus combined points in three of the four meetings. The last time these two teams played against each other back in January, the Kings narrowly won by the score of 134-133.

According to DunksAndThrees, the Warriors and Kings both play at top-11 paces while also being top five in offensive three-point shot rate. It helps that Golden State and Sacramento are both top-10 squads in three-point efficiency on offense as there will be plenty of outside shots being taken on both ends of the court.

Additionally, when facing teams who are top 10 in pace this season, the Warriors were involved in a game that had 223-plus total points in 20 of the 26 instances. The Kings are narrowly outside the top 10 in pace, so there shouldn't be much concern of them not making this a fast-paced matchup.

Ahead of Tuesday's showdown, numberFire is giving the over a 80.3% chance of hitting despite the -110 odds giving an implied probability of only 52.4%.

Kings ML (+118)

Even with the Warriors having the edge in playoff experience, the Kings are holding -108 odds to cover as 2.0-point underdogs at home for Tuesday's clash. This could very well be a back-and-forth contest as three of the four regular-season meetings were -- amazingly -- decided by one point.

Instead of taking Sacramento to cover the spread and keep it close, I will back the Kings to win outright. While the Kings didn't finish the regular season in fantastic form, there's a reason why the Warriors are the No. 10 seed in this matchup.

Despite not having guards Malik Monk (15.4 PPG, 5.1 APG) and Kevin Huerter (10.2 PPG) available because of injury, Sacramento still has a formidable top three with De'Aaron Fox (26.6 PPG, 5.6 APG), Domantas Sabonis (19.4 PPG, 13.7 RPG, and 8.2 APG), and Keegan Murray (15.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG). On top of that, the trio of Trey Lyles (7.2 PPG), Davion Mitchell (5.3 PPG), and Murray have the sixth-best net rating (41.4) of three-player lineups since after the All-Star break.

Mitchell and Lyles should continue to see expanded roles due to Monk and Huerter being sidelined.

After losing the first two meetings versus the Dubs this season, the Kings edged out narrow victories in the last two games. In what will likely be a competitive game, it should be noted that Golden State is 29th in turnover rate (15.3%) while Sacramento is 10th in turnover rate (12.9%) on the offensive end of the floor.

Besides siding with the over, numberFire is also giving the Kings a 60.5% chance of securing a win on Tuesday night.

Get in on the action today! All customers get a No Sweat Same Game Parlay to use on any NBA Play-In Tournament game on April 16th! See the promotions page for full details.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.