NBA Betting Picks for Wednesday 4/3/24: Will the Suns Torch the Cavaliers in the Desert?

Riley Thomas•_riley8

2mo

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Orlando Magic at New Orleans Pelicans

Pelicans -4.5 (-106)
Under 208 (-112)

After going 5-3 during an eight-game home stand, the Orlando Magic are back on the road for a matchup with the New Orleans Pelicans. Neither team has been a reliable pick against the spread (ATS); both teams are 1-4 ATS over the last five games. Which side will finally come up with a cover on Wednesday?

numberFire's daily game projections are slightly leaning toward the Pelicans' side with a confidence level of one out of five stars. New Orleans is at the disadvantage when it comes to injuries as Orlando is pretty much fully healthy, while the Pels' Brandon Ingram will miss his seventh straight game with a knee injury.

Over the last six contests without Ingram, New Orleans has totaled only 107.8 PPG (season average is 115.2). The Pelicans have also shot 45.4% from the field; keep in mind that New Orleans has the eighth-best field goal percentage (FG%) this season at 48.7%.

The Pels' offense has clearly not been the same with Ingram out of the lineup, and they are facing the Association's second-best defensive rating tonight. New Orleans ranks sixth in defensive rating, and the Magic play at the fifth-slowest pace. The under is 8-2 over the Magic's last 10 games. When it comes to the total, the under looks like the clear bet.

Now, let's get back to taking a side for the spread. While the Pelicans' scoring numbers have been down, I believe the defense could hold its own tonight. New Orleans gives up the fourth-fewest points in the paint, and they've even improved in the category over the last five games with opponents averaging only 42.4 points in the paint (season average is 46.3).

Orlando attempts the sixth-most shots within 10 feet of the rim. Despite what the defensive rating suggests, the Magic's paint defense does not carry elite stats. In fact, they rank 8th in points in the paint allowed per game and have the 15th-worst mark in opponent two-point percentage.

For two teams that look to attack the rim, the battle in the paint could determine the victor. I like the Pelicans' chances of winning this battle and also covering the spread.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Phoenix Suns

Suns -6 (-108)
Suns Team Total Over 116.5 (-108)

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been very inconsistent when looking at their last 10 games. The Wine and Gold are 4-6 during this span while going 3-7 ATS. Donovan Mitchell's persistent injury issues haven't helped.

Mitchell leads the team with 26.8 points per game (PPG) and a 31.3% usage rate. When Cleveland's star guard has played, he's looked sluggish with only 12.7 PPG while shooting 36.8% from the field over his past three outings. After missing Tuesday's game, Mitchell is questionable with knee maintenance.

Regardless of Mitchell's status, traveling to face the Phoenix Suns is not looking promising for the Cavaliers. Cleveland's defense has stumbled over the last four games, giving up 118.8 PPG. The perimeter defense has been a disaster with opponents cashing in 46.2% of their three-point shots.

The Suns boast one of the league's most efficient offenses with the fifth-best three-point percentage, eighth-best two-point percentage, and fifth-best effective field goal percentage (eFG%). Additionally, Phoenix has increased their three-point volume over the last two games, taking 44.0 shots each contest (season average is 32.4).

The Cavs could be preparing for a disaster in the desert. Not only do I like the Suns to cover, but I'm also backing the over for their team total of 116.5 points. The efficiency for Phoenix is certainly there, and they total 116.8 PPG this season (10th-best). Cleveland's recent defensive struggles give the Suns a great chance of flourishing.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.