NBA Betting Picks for Monday 4/1/24: Backing a Pair of Road Underdogs

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
NBA Betting Picks for Monday 4/1/24: Backing a Pair of Road Underdogs

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers

Nets +12.5 (-108)

The Brooklyn Nets, who are 3-7 over their last 10 games, have a clean injury report for their visit against the Indiana Pacers. Brooklyn is a sizable underdog as Indiana is favored by 12.5 points.

Of course, the Pacers have been the much better team this season as they hold the 6 seed in the Eastern Conference while the Nets are in 11th. Still, this 12.5-point spread feels too high. It's not like Brooklyn will be without notable players; they are healthy and have won back-to-back games on the road.

numberFire's daily game projections are suggesting a Nets cover, and Massey Ratings is forecasting a nine-point win for Indiana. Metrics are saying to back Brooklyn, and the stats also back it up.

Despite having the 12th-worst defensive rating, the Nets excel in the ideal category to slow the Pacers' offense. Brooklyn gives up the 11th-fewest points in the paint per game (48.2) and has continued to produce at this rate by allowing only 48.0 points in the paint each contest over the last three games. Indiana leans on their interior scoring with the most points in the paint per game.

The Nets also have a chance of controlling the boards as they sit in the top 12 of offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. The Pacers are in the bottom 12 for both categories. Brooklyn should have enough advantages to at least keep this one closer than expected.

Portland Trail Blazers at Orlando Magic

Trail Blazers Team Total Under 96.5 (-110)

Tonight's action features a pair of games with spreads that surpass 15 points. The Portland Trail Blazers against the Orlando Magic is one of the contests with a notable spread. The Trail Blazers will be without Malcolm Brogdon, Anfernee Simons, and Shaedon Sharpe, and Jerami Grant is doubtful.

That's four of Portland's top five scorers. The Blazers would have a hard time scoring against Orlando even when healthy. The Magic have the second-best defensive rating, while Portland has the second-worst offensive rating. The Trail Blazers were held to only 97 points 39.8% field goal percentage (FG%) in October 27th's matchup.

No wonder the Magic are 16.5-point favorites. Orlando is healthy and should be able to frustrate Portland's offense. The stats for the season already say enough. The Blazers have the worst effective field goal percentage (eFG%) in the Association, total the third-fewest points per game (PPG), and average the third-most turnovers per game. Need I go on? Portland lacks efficiency and struggles in virtually every major scoring category.

What happens when you take away the Trail Blazers' most dangerous scoring threats? Not much success, and facing one of the league's best defenses should ensure that. Give me Portland to score 96 points or fewer.

Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls

Hawks +2 (-108)

The Atlanta Hawks had their four-game winning streak snapped on March 30th. This could be Atlanta coming back to reality as they've managed to find success with several key players out of the lineup. Saddiq Bey is out for the season with a torn ACL, and Trae Young continues to recover from finger surgery.

When Bey and Young are out of the lineup, Atlanta's three-point percentage actually spikes to 38.4% (season average is 36.6%). The Hawks have shot 41.9% from three-point land over their last five games.

The Bulls struggle to defend the three, giving up the most shots per game and second-most makes each contest. If the Hawks can speed up the pace of the game, I like their chances of covering the spread.

Atlanta totals the fifth-most PPG, while Chicago averages the eighth-fewest PPG. The Bulls play at the second-slowest pace, and the Hawks have the sixth-quickest tempo. Forcing turnovers could be Atlanta's key to speed this up.

The Hawks force the sixth-most turnovers, and Chicago has turned it over more than usual over the last two contests with 14.0 turnovers per game (season average is 12.2).

Ultimately, I still trust in Atlanta's recent improved play, and this matchup should allow the Hawks to keep excelling from three. Massey Ratings is even predicting a one-point win for Atlanta.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.