NBA

NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 3/31/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 3/31/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

Our favorite picks are to come, but don't forget to check out FanDuel's Parlay Hub for other trending bets for all sports -- including basketball.

Without further delay, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report.

NBA Best Bets

Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors

Raptors +9.5 (-108)
Kelly Oubre Over 1.5 Threes (-102)

This line might look like a bargain if Tyrese Maxey (hip) ends up sitting, but the Toronto Raptors are still in a good spot to keep this within double digits even if Maxey plays.

The Philadelphia 76ers' ugly -5.8 net rating on the road over their last 15 total games probably shouldn't be favored by this much, but that's the product of a Toronto squad that's been an absolute eyesore recently. However, even with a 44-point loss to the New York Knicks freshest in the mind, the Raps have kept 8 of their last 10 games within 10 points.

Maxey's injury is crucial when Philly's net rating plummets to -10.6 in games without both him and Joel Embiid. Expect this line to shrink dramatically with that the case, but even before the point guard's status is final, many key models have this spread far lower. numberFire's projected spread is 4.9 points with DRatings (6.4) and Massey Ratings (5.0) not too far off.

If this game stays tight, look for Kelly Oubre to have openings from deep. Toronto cedes the very most three-point makes per game (3.1) to his small forward position, and the former Jayhawk, averaging 5.0 attempts per game this month, will certainly let them fly.

FanDuel Research's NBA projections expect 2.1 triples from one of the internet's favorite basketball players at present.

Los Angeles Clippers at Charlotte Hornets

Hornets +14.5 (-112)
Over 215.5 (-108)
Vasilije Micic Over 11.5 Points (-104)

The Los Angeles Clippers last win by more than 15 points came back on March 1st at home against the Washington Wizards. I'm not sure how or why they're laying this on the road.

L.A.'s defense has plummeted to a 117.7 rating (fifth-worst in the NBA) over their last 15 games, so even the Charlotte Hornets' constipated offense might be punching at its own weight class today. However, the Hornets' 117.5 defensive rating in the same stretch is also poor, and this game's expected pace with both teams at relative full strength (94.82) isn't low enough to expect this few points from both sides.

nF is expecting a median margin of 10.1 points -- a sentiment that both DRatings (9.9) and Massey (10.0) nearly echo identically. That makes the spread a pretty solid value wager, and the three models are also aligned on the total, projecting 224.2, 220.5, and 216.0 points respectively.

The Clips' defensive issues are most seen to opposing floor generals, allowing the sixth-most points per game to the position (25.6). Though not big on star power, Vasilije Micic is pretty well set up to exceed a low bar in this matchup. He's posted 15.7 points per 36 minutes in Charlotte and now occupies the full-time point guard slot.

FDR projections expect 11.9 points from Micic on Sunday, which is a good enough projection at even money.

Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets

Rockets ML (+118)
Fred VanVleet Over 11.5 Rebounds and Assists (-132)

The red-hot Houston Rockets are surging toward the Play-In Tournament, and today would be another huge dub in their column.

They're 8-0 since Alperen Sengun was lost to injury with a +20.0 net rating. It's really impossible to model them right now -- especially at home -- in a way that doesn't find them favored to win, yet they sit as underdogs to the electric Dallas Mavericks in this one.

They just shouldn't be. numberFire gives them a 58.3% chance to win tonight, and DRatings (56.6%) and Massey (51.0%) also favor them. I find that especially notable when these models tend to value long-term data.

A fireball at present, Jalen Green's props have left the value station, but his backcourt mate might still have this combo for us. Fred VanVleet has picked up the slack in all categories with Sengun off the floor this season, posting 7.6 assists and 4.2 rebounds per 36 minutes with Sengun off the floor. Today's matchup will only help with dimes and boards; Dallas allows the 12th-most assists and 2nd-most rebounds to PGs.

FanDuel Research expects 8.1 assists and 3.9 rebounds from FVV at a median in tonight's tilt.

Oklahoma City Thunder at New York Knicks

Over 217 (-110)

It can be a bit scary to take an over when a marquee star like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (quad) is questionable, but the Oklahoma City Thunder's performance without him inspires hope.

In a limited sample of 283 possessions during games where SGA was inactive, OKC's offensive rating is a massive 129.3. They've also struggled to post a 123.2 dRTG in this time. I'm expecting offense from them whether their MVP candidate plays or not.

That's also because the New York Knicks' quiet transformation without Julius Randle still seems to be underplayed in betting markets. New York's 119.1 oRTG in games without Randle would rank 3rd in the NBA this year, and their 115.1 dRTG would be just the 15th-best.

Our analytical friends are all over this total today; numberFire (227.2), DRatings (222.4), and Massey (221.0) are all heavily projected above this mark. I'd understand waiting to see if it might drop should SGA be ruled out, but the opposite could also take some value away when the Thunder's performance has been -- bizarrely -- similar.

Utah Jazz at Sacramento Kings

Kings Team Total Over 117.5 (-105)
Keon Ellis Over 9.5 Points (-122)

Entering the year, the Utah Jazz would have been presumed dead with Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, and John Collins out. For the first time all season, that'll be the case tonight.

That's why we're avoiding this full-game total, but the Sacramento Kings are in a great position to score and bounce back from consecutive losses to Dallas. Utah's 116.8 dRTG in games without Markkanen and Clarkson is still poor, and the Jazz's young squad (11th in pace over their last 15 games) should be an uptick in possessions compared to the Kings' usual tempo (16th).

This will also be Sacramento's first game of the season without bench scorer Malik Monk, but Sacramento's oRTG only increases 0.7 points with Monk on the floor versus off. I think oddsmakers have overreacted to the news, and the implied Kings totals from numberFire (125.4), DRatings (123.4), and Massey (122.0) agree.

With Monk and Kevin Huerter both unavailable, this should be the second full-time effort for Sactown guard Keon Ellis all season. I'm excited to see what it looks like when Ellis averages 10.7 points per 36 minutes overall. He posted 16 points in 38 minutes on Friday.

Ellis is projected by FDR for 11.0 points in 29.4 minutes on Sunday, but he'd likely run with the backups in the event of a blowout. I'm expecting far closer to his effort from three days ago.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.