NBA

NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 3/17/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 3/17/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

Our favorite picks are to come, but don't forget to check out FanDuel's Parlay Hub for other trending bets for all sports -- including basketball.

Without further delay, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons

Pistons +5.5 (-112)

The Miami Heat defeated the Detroit Pistons by 13 on Friday in Detroit. Why are they only favored by 5.5 points here?

As usual, the answer in the NBA is usually injuries. Jimmy Butler (foot) will sit Sunday, and as you'd expect, that's a big deal for Miami. They've posted a +3.5 net rating with Butler on the floor compared to a -2.5 net rating when he sits. Their offensive rating without him on the floor is a hideous 110.9, per PBP Stats.

Detroit hasn't been a horrible team at home recently overall, either. They've posted a -1.7 net rating over their last 15 games when inside Little Caesars Arena.

With 71% of tickets and 77% of the cash backing a watered-down version of the Heat on the road, I'll take a small cushion with the home side.

Pistons ML (+190) might not be a bad look here for the bold.

Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks

Mavericks ML (+150)

I'll leap to the moneyline to support an upset of -- in most estimations -- the NBA's best team at the moment.

The only problem with that diagnosis is that you could argue the Dallas Mavericks should be favored in this floor condition with an additional day of rest over the Denver Nuggets. Over the last 15 games, Dallas has exploded for a +8.4 net rating in their building (fourth-best in the NBA).

On the flip side, we continue to see a huge split between Denver's performance at altitude and when on the road. The Nuggets' +2.7 road net rating in the same period is eighth-best in the NBA, but they'll have a tall task with the Luka Doncic-led Mavs.

numberFire's model projects Dallas to win 46.7% of the time tonight, but these odds imply just a 40.0% chance. As usual with the Nuggets (a public darling), there's no doubt where the betting value lies in Big D tonight.

Toronto Raptors at Orlando Magic

Franz Wagner Over 23.5 Points and Assists (-104)

This is yet another repeat matchup on the slate. The Orlando Magic bested the Toronto Raptors by 10 on Friday.

Franz Wagner brought out the old hook in that one -- at least compared to this number. North of the border, Wagner posted 19 points and 4 assists for a total of 23 points and assists (PA).

However, his peripheral numbers for both scoring (26.4% usage) and assisting (5.0 potential assists) were slightly better in what is still a plum matchup. Toronto is allowing the 2nd-most points and 10th-most assists per game to small forwards over their last 15 games.

Orlando posted 113 points on Friday, but their 115.5-point implied team total at home tonight is slightly more optimistic. FanDuel Research's NBA projections are forecasting 20.4 points and 3.7 assists for Wagner on Sunday -- good for 23.8 PA.

Brooklyn Nets at San Antonio Spurs

Nets Over 108.5 Points (-112)
Dennis Schroder Over 13.5 Points (-115)

A short memory is required in a daily betting sport like NBA, and I'll need one to turn to the Brooklyn Nets' team total just as I did yesterday.

Brooklyn was on pace for 114 points at halftime, but a third quarter featuring 46.0% true shooting (TS%) sunk their team total by proxy of getting blown out, resigning their starters and most efficient scorers to the bench for the entire fourth quarter.

I still want to target a pace-up spot for them and hope the bottom doesn't fall out. Over the last 15 games, Brooklyn is 27th in pace as tonight's hosts, the San Antonio Spurs, sit 2nd in that regard. San Antonio also features the ninth-worst defensive rating (114.6) in this period.

nF's model expects 114.3 median points from Brooklyn tonight, which is a huge cushion over this mark.

Dennis Schroder can help them get there. The Spurs are allowing the fourth-most points per game to opposing point guards (26.7) in their last 15 games, and Schroder -- in a full role -- has posted 17.0 points per 36 minutes since joining the Nets.

FDR's projections expect 14.1 points from Schroder in 33.2 minutes on Sunday. If nothing else, the Nets should avoid a blowout with the equally inept Spurs on the other side.

Atlanta Hawks at Los Angeles Clippers

Hawks +10 (-112)
Bogdan Bogdanovic Over 2.5 Threes (-125)

The Los Angeles Clippers don't deserve to lay any points against most teams right now. Double digits is absurd.

Battling injuries, L.A. has a -1.9 net rating over their last 15 games. That's the 11th-worst mark in the NBA, and they trail the visiting Atlanta Hawks (+1.5) in that area.

The location splits don't help a case for laying these points, either. The Clips' -4.1 net rating at home in this period is even worse despite a performance drop for the Hawks (-5.1) that mirrors what you'd expect for a young team without Trae Young.

Los Angeles' perimeter defense has ceded a 38.0% make rate (fourth-highest in the NBA) during these struggles, so expect a fireworks show from Bogdan Bogdanovic, who is in the lineup in the place of the aforementioned Young.

Bogie has averaged 34.0 minutes and 8.7 three-point attempts per game in March, splashing a mediocre (for him) 36.5% of those. L.A.'s lack of effort on the perimeter could help turn at least three of those into makes.

FDR is projecting 3.6 triples for Bogdanovic on Sunday; this is the best prop I found in the model today.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.