NBA Atlantic Division Best Bets: The Celtics Reach New Heights

With the NBA season on the near horizon, we can start getting into the nitty-gritty of teams' win potentials, playoff chances, and more.

The Eastern Conference's Atlantic Division boasts some of the biggest markets in basketball and is projected to win a total of 221.5 games (top division total in the Eastern Conference), so this crop of five teams should be interesting to keep an eye out for this season.

Let's take a look at some of the best bets this season for the Atlantic Division.

Boston Celtics Over 54.5 Wins (+100)

There's no denying that the Boston Celtics are a championship contender.

According to the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, the Celtics currently hold the shortest NBA Championship odds at +380 (tied with the Milwaukee Bucks) and have the highest set win total at 54.5.

With the exception of a few pandemic- and lockdown-related shortened seasons, at least one NBA team has won 55 or more games each season since 1979 -- and I believe there's good reason why the Celtics are a team that will clear the 55-plus win bar this year.

Last season, Boston boasted a 57-25 record. All-Star duo Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown show no signs of stopping their dominant play this season, and key offseason additions should see to it that the Celtics follow up on last year's performance.

In June, Boston sent Marcus Smart packing in a three-team deal to acquire Kristaps Porzingis. Then, earlier this month, the C's traded Robert Williams and Malcolm Brogdon for former Bucks guard Jrue Holiday.

Though we've yet to see how the Holiday-Tatum-Brown-Porzingis lineup will mesh, the numbers show that the Celtics will become a better team with these moves.

It's The Holiday Season

Marcus Smart was crowned Defensive Player of the Year two seasons ago and is known for his tough play that the box score cannot accommodate for, but advanced stats prove that Holiday is the preferred starting point guard.

Holiday put up a 9.7 Net Rating (third among starting guards) last season, while Smart finished with a 6.3 Net Rating (seventh). Despite Smart's defensive laurels, he neither led Holiday in Offensive Rating nor Defensive Rating.

Further, Holiday posted a whopping 13.5 Player Impact Estimate (PIE) last season, while Smart fell behind with a 7.6 PIE. PIE does a great job gauging a player's overall influence on the floor and shows that the former leads the latter in just about every major statistical category -- points per game (PPG), rebounds per game (RPG), assists per game (APG), field-goal percentage (FG%), three-point percentage (3P%), free-throw percentage (FT%), effective field-goal percentage (eFG%), and plus/minus.

The Bucks, who posted a league-best 58-24 record last season, went 8-7 in games without Holiday. This sample speaks volumes and demonstrates that, above all, Holiday is a winning point guard.

It seems as though Holiday's championship pedigree and ability to run a tight offense (Smart had a 17.9% turnover rate last season, which was second-worst among starting guards) should serve as a major win contributor to an already win-heavy team.

Big Man on the Block

The departure of Robert Williams shouldn't shake up things too much for the Celtics -- mainly because he hardly played last season.

Williams missed 47 games last year with a torn meniscus. The Celtics went 33-14 during that span, equating to a .702 winning percentage, which was actually better than their overall .622 winning percentage.

With the arrival of Kristaps Porzingis, the Celtics now boast an array of offensive threats, which should create better shot opportunities for the team's stars.

Porzingis averaged 23.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per game last season for the Washington Wizards. His 38.5 3P%, 49.8 FG%, 56.5 EFG% and 14.5 PIE would have all been second among Boston starters.

Though it would be fair to question Porzingis' poor defensive win shares from last season (0.078; would have been 10th among Celtics players last season), this comes with the territory of wearing a Wizards jersey -- and a look into advanced defensive stats shows that he could be primed for a great year on the defensive end.

The lack of depth at the power forward and center positions could rear its ugly head for the Celtics (plus, Al Horford is only getting older), but they've made due putting a smaller lineup on the floor, and Porzingis should give the Boston all the big-man power they need to win games this season.

Health Insurance

In looking at preseason win totals to side with, one of the main concerns will always be health. I can't imagine anyone would feel good about an over bet on the Philadelphia 76ers 47.5 win total if, say, Joel Embiid goes down with an injury.

But in terms of teams that offer the most depth (and health insurance), the Celtics are right there at the top.

Tatum and Brown have stayed fairly healthy in their career and have yet to miss major time during the season. Injuries are finicky and can sprout at a moment's notice, but there are undoubtedly certain stars in the league who pose bigger health risks than others -- neither of Boston's two studs fall under this category.

Further, the Celtics have proved they can piece together wins even without Brown and Tatum on the court at the same time. Last season, the team went 4-2 in games where Tatum was out but Brown played. In games where Tatum played but Brown was sidelined, the team went 10-3.

An injury obviously isn't ideal for the over on any team's win total, but it would take a lot bad injury luck for Boston's win total to be put in jeopardy.

Toronto Raptors To Make The Playoffs +144

The Eastern Conference couldn't be worse this year. Only seven teams come into the season with a win total of at least 41 -- meaning only seven teams are expected to go .500 or above in the East (the Western Conference, meanwhile, has 11 teams expected to perform above .500).

By the betting odds, East teams expected to make the playoffs include the Celtics, Bucks, 76ers, New York Knicks, Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Atlanta Hawks -- leaving a final spot for a projected sub-.500 team.

Enter the Toronto Raptors, who I think have a decent shot at making a playoff push this season.

The Raptors finished last season with a disappointing 41-41 record (10th seed) and lost their second-leading scorer, Fred VanVleet, in the offseason.

However, of the teams fighting it out for the theoretical final playoff spot -- a group which includes the Chicago Bulls, Indiana Pacers, and Brooklyn Nets -- the Raptors boast the best young players who have a chance at coming into their own this season.

Young Guns

Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, Gary Trent Jr., and Pascal Siakam enter this season in the typical peak or near-peak years of their careers -- all four averaged 15-plus points per game last season, and I think we could see one or more of these players show true star potential this year.

Siakam already has a pair of All-Star nods and a championship ring, meaning it would be more than fair to say he has already exemplified a star quality. But he should see an increased role on both ends of the court this year, and his numbers (24.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, 5.8 assists per game, 48.0 FG%) show he is up for the challenge.

Anunoby is a defensive star (2022-23 NBA steals leader and Second Team All-Defense) who can back it up on the offensive end. Barnes won Rookie of the Year two seasons ago and could be primed for a stellar junior year the way so many of his predecessors have (LaMelo Ball, Luka Doncic, and Ja Morant all won ROY in the three years prior to Barnes' win).

Raptors center Jakob Poeltl is worth mentioning, too. After trading for Poeltl last February, Toronto went 15-11 with him on the court (for reference, they went 8-7 in games that VanVleet missed), and he led the team with a 4.7 plus/minus (next best plus/minus was 2.8).

It seems the Raptors are a better team with Poetl on the court. Having him for a full season as the guy who rounds out their starting lineup should make things interesting for Toronto fans as the team searches for a playoff berth.

It makes sense that the market would undervalue a team that lost their second-leading scorer and is coming off a 41-41 season. However, I think there's much more to the picture here with this Raptors squad, and I like their chances to compete for a playoff spot.

Do you think you know which NBA teams will succeed or falter this season? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA win total odds market to bet any team's win total with America's Number One Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.