NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: Xfinity Series Championship

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes
NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: Xfinity Series Championship

Saturday's NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Race is littered with fun storylines.

Can John Hunter Nemechek convert his dominant season into a championship?

Will Justin Allgaier finally claim his long-awaited championship in his 13th playoff appearance?

Or do we see Cole Custer and Sam Mayer spoil those plans?

It's going to be a fun race. But my model does view there as being a favorite.

Before we dive into the simulations for the full race, here's how the model views the championship odds as being distributed.

Championship Odds
John Hunter Nemechek36.6%
Cole Custer29.2%
Justin Allgaier23.2%
Sam Mayer11.0%

Seeing Nemechek at the top isn't a surprise. He deserves to be there. But I'd bet Custer is higher than most might think.

I agree with the model; Custer's a legit contender for the crown here. His best track type when he was in the Cup Series was short, flat tracks, and that has translated to Xfinity. He had a top-five average running position in Martinsville and New Hampshire, and he had a fifth-place mark in Nashville, another flatter track.

FanDuel doesn't currently have championship odds up, but if they post them, I'd be willing to pounce on Custer at +300 or longer. That gives you wiggle room just in case the sims are underselling either Allgaier or Mayer.

Now let's get to the full race sims. These do not account for motivation, and there's a good chance one of the Championship Four wins. Thus, if you plan on using these for betting, please downgrade all non-championship drivers to account for the fact they may give those others more space on the track.

Win Sims
Top 5
John Hunter Nemechek19.3%48.7%66.2%
Cole Custer13.6%38.7%57.4%
Sammy Smith11.3%31.8%50.3%
Justin Allgaier10.6%32.6%50.9%
Josh Berry10.5%30.6%48.2%
Sam Mayer5.3%17.3%30.9%
Chandler Smith4.6%14.8%26.6%
View Full Table

Here, you can see that Nemechek and Custer are the two favorites in the entire field. It's not enough where I can get to betting them at +165 or +400, respectively, in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds, but they do earn those short odds.

The non-championship driver who stands out most to me is Parker Retzlaff. Retzlaff nearly snagged a top-five in Martinsville last week and has generally been fast on the short, flat tracks. Retzlaff got his first career top five in the season-opener in Daytona, and I've got him at 8.8% odds to complete the bookend with another top five on Saturday.

Have a driver you want to bet for Saturday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.