NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400

If you are looking for an action-packed way to consume sports on the weekend, NASCAR may be a great avenue to explore. Far from just driving in circles, some of the world's best compete nearly every weekend from February to November on tracks across America.

NASCAR drivers are scored ultimately based on how they finish in the race, how many spots they advance from their starting position, and how many laps they finish and lead. Avoiding drivers who crash out of the race is a must, though!

FanDuel Research is always your home for fantasy NASCAR advice. In addition to this helper, Jim Sannes takes a look at the best bets of the weekend in his betting guide.

With all of this in mind, let's preview this weekend's AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at Texas Motor Speedway from the perspective of playing daily fantasy NASCAR on FanDuel.

Weekend Primer

Once one of the easiest tracks to forecast previously, Texas Motor Speedway is now fairly unique.

Since its reconfiguration in 2017, TMS gets plenty of votes from drivers as the worst track on NASCAR's schedule. This wide, 1.5-mile oval actually has very little room that's usable for racing. There's one primary groove and another that can form but isn't preferred. That's made passing incredibly difficult, and we've also seen the incident rate spike because if you're out of the groove, you're likely in the wall. It's an extremely fast track.

As NASCAR has dialed back 1.5-milers in general, this one truly stands alone as a test of supreme track position and minimal tire wear. Raw speed is quite literally everything here, which should bump familiar names toward the top of the running order. I'd actually most similarly compare this track to the 2.0-miler in Michigan with a similar passing and groove dynamic.

With a standard practice and qualifying format on tap, we'll want to watch those times closely. They should be incredibly indicative of single-lap speed that could make all the difference.

General Lineup Strategy

The last two years at Texas are a great case study for how this race could transpire.

In 2021, Kyle Larson and William Byron brought the fastest cars to the track, leading a combined 311 of the 334 laps in the race. However, that was in an older model of car. This next-gen car debuted in 2022, and mayhem ensued. Of the top-20 drivers in points entering the race, six of them crashed out of last September's event, and no driver led more than 70 laps in a total disaster.

I could see a blend of the two outcomes this weekend. Passing is difficult, so we will want to prioritize the fastest drivers and teams at the front of the field. They'll be overwhelming favorites to get most of the 267 laps led (and 26.7 FanDuel points for leading laps).

With that the case, it could be risky to target drivers at the front should they crash. But given there's not a predictable method in which they would, we really should value the data that suggests the front is still the place to look for value plays beyond your traditional lap leaders, too.

In each of the last two seasons, 9 of the top-12 finishers started inside the top-15 spots. You can gamble on cars further in the field moving forward, but since qualifying has returned to the Cup Series, the fastest cars usually start up front at a track where passing is nearly impossible. I don't believe we can overlook that element of common sense just because the incident rate has been elevated and a few exceptions have come to fruition.

Driver Rankings

Below are my pre-qualifying rankings for each driver based on equipment, track history, recent form, and overall talent level -- in that order. Only drivers with a win probability above 0% in Jim Sannes' win simulations or a top-20 finish this season were included.

MLT Rank, the driver's weighted average median lap time ranking at the relevant sample of similar racetracks to this weekend, is a great indicator of overall speed. The prior races in the sample (with weight percentage) this week are:

• 2023 Michigan (Fall) - 50.0%
• 2023 Charlotte (Spring) - 30.0%
• 2023 Pocono (Fall) - 20.0%

For dominator viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale to potentially lead laps and win the race if they start upfront. A "10" is among the favorites to win the race, and a "0" has no realistic chance of leading the race at any point.

For flex play viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale of potentially finishing inside the top 15 spots. These drivers will be better daily fantasy plays the further back in the field they start for optimal place-differential points.

The closest comparison this week is Michigan, and Martin Truex Jr. ($13,000) had one gifted car there.

He had the fastest median time and was one of the rare vehicles that could pass at will. Unfortunately, his handling fell off, and he wasn't able to get around one car -- Chris Buescher ($10,000) -- for the win, but I think he's clearly the favorite in this one.

Teammate Denny Hamlin ($14,000) wasn't far behind at Michigan, and he won at Pocono, which is another fast track with minimal tire wear. He's also a favorite to carry forth momentum from last week's win in Bristol.

As has been the case for weeks, William Byron ($12,500) grades out well but hasn't flashed for any speed of note like he did earlier in the season. It's not as if he's killed your lineup, though. He's riding a streak of six straight top-15 finishes.

In the previous generation of car, Kyle Larson ($13,500) owned Texas. He led 255 laps here in 2021 and won the NASCAR All-Star Race at the same venue that year. In this current one, he hasn't graded out exceptionally, but Larson led 24 laps at Pocono, showing signs of life at bigger tracks in this car. He's still behind the other three.

The aforementioned Buescher did win Michigan, so I'm much higher on him than Jim's simulations this week. He and teammate Brad Keselowski ($9,500) have top-six median blends this week, and they'll be a threat everywhere the rest of the way except road courses -- where Kes can struggle. I still don't think these two are appropriately salaried.

Last year's winner, Tyler Reddick ($12,000), drives for Hamlin's 23XII Racing team, so he's got comfort with the track and solid equipment to check boxes as a contender. Kyle Busch ($10,500) is now driving the number-8 car that went to victory lane here with Reddick in 2022, and Busch also won at Texas in 2020.

Intriguingly, this large, fast track type has been a reprieve from a nightmare season for Chase Elliott ($9,000). Elliott has the fifth-best median blend at a friendly salary.

I think one of the more intriguing salaries in the pool is Ross Chastain ($8,500). Chastain survived last week's playoff cut, but this sample of tracks -- namely Pocono and Michigan -- came at his worst point of the season as Trackhouse focused on getting Daniel Suarez ($6,800) into the playoffs. I have Chastain circled as the guy I want to see in practice as he's historically led plenty at 1.5-milers.

We'll start to see Erik Jones ($7,500) climbing up the MLT rankings as we encapsulate more second-half samples after his renaissance this summer. Jones finished 3rd at Kansas two weeks ago and came home 10th at Michigan, so he'll likely be a top-10 threat at Texas.

At such a fast track, elite equipment should play a factor, so Alex Bowman ($7,000) and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,500) are interesting prospects in Hendrick Motorsports equipment.

Similarly, Penske's Austin Cindric ($6,000) has done better at these larger tracks this year, amassing the 16th-best median blend at them. Ryan Blaney ($11,000) and Joey Logano ($8,000) have posted similar results, but the salary savings with Cindric make him the most intriguing play from his stable.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.