Monte-Carlo Masters Betting Picks: Friday 4/12/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
Monte-Carlo Masters Betting Picks: Friday 4/12/24

With Indian Wells and the Miami Open in the books, the ATP Tour's clay season is here as we work our way to the 2024 French Open in late May.

The Monte-Carlo Masters kicks things off for the men, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Monte-Carlo Masters Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Where can we find betting value on Friday? Note that play begins at 5:00 am ET due to a six-hour time difference.

Monte-Carlo Masters Best Bets

Holger Rune vs. Jannik Sinner

Under 20.5 Total Match Games (-118)

Holger Rune has been one of the most consistent clay players over the past 52 weeks, coming into Monte Carlo with a 16-4 record on the surface, so I would normally be wary of doubting him despite Jannik Sinner's complete dominance of the sport in 2024.

The problem for Rune is that due to his opening match getting suspended for rain on Wednesday, not only was he forced to finish that one on Thursday, but he then had to come back later in the day to complete his round of 16 match.

And none of it came easy, either, as both matches would ultimately go three sets, with the latter being a grueling three-and-a-half-hour affair against Grigor Dimitrov that featured two tiebreaks and two match points saved.

On the other hand, Sinner has cruised through his two matches, barely exceeding three and a half hours of total court time. As a reminder, the 2024 Australian Open champion still has just one loss all year.

Sinner is up to a -720 favorite, which implies 87.8% win odds. Plugging this duel into Massey Rating's matchup tool shows an 81% probability for Sinner. Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings might be quite that high, but a 73% win probability is nothing to scoff at, either.

Given that Sinner is -190 to win in straight sets and -164 to cover 4.5 games, taking the under total match games at -116 might be the best path for value. Seven of his last eight matches have gone under 21 games.

Novak Djokovic vs. Alex de Minaur

Djokovic 2-0 Sets (-145)

Following a shocking upset to a lucky loser at Indian Wells and then skipping the Miami Open entirely, it was fair to wonder what kind of form Novak Djokovic would be in for the Monte-Carlo Masters. But after opening his clay season with a pair of straight-set wins, it sure seems to be business as usual for Novak.

In his first match, Djokovic made quick work of 41st-ranked Roman Safiullin 6-1, 6-2 in an hour and 10 minutes without facing a single break point. He faced a tougher test in 24th-ranked Lorenzo Musetti -- a strong clay player -- but he dispatched the Italian 7-5, 6-3.

The two victories put Djokovic at 10-3 on the year, which might seem modest by his standards, but this is also just his fourth event in 2024, as he seems content to limit his workload at this stage in his career. Seeing as he's the defending French Open champion and was tied for the second-best clay court in percentage (80.0%) over the past 52 weeks before this event, he remains one of the Tour's best clay players until further notice.

While Alex de Minaur is responsible for one of those 2024 Djokovic losses, that came on hard courts, his preferred surface -- and clay is decidedly not his preferred surface. Of his eight singles titles, none have come on clay, and he actually entered the event with a mere 19-27 career clay record.

The Australian has done well to win three straight here, but he hasn't faced anyone inside the top 20, and he's just 1-10 lifetime versus top-20 opponents on clay, with the lone win coming in 2022 against Cameron Norrie.

Tennis Abstract projects Djokovic to win this 82% of the time, and Massey Ratings' matchup tool is even more bullish at 84%. The odds for a straight-set win have fluctuated quite a bit since this matchup was posted, but if it stays in this range or better, this looks like a spot to pounce on.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.