MLB Win Total Betting: How Many Games Will the Mets Win in 2024?

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
MLB Win Total Betting: How Many Games Will the Mets Win in 2024?

The 2023 season was a nightmare for the New York Mets. Following a 101-win season in 2022, the Mets entered the year with championship expectations. New York fell severely short of these lofty goals, tallying only 75 wins while failing to reach the playoffs.

The Mets enter the 2024 season following a busy offseason as they spent the 10th-most in free agency. Will the additions be enough to vault New York back into the postseason?

What is the Mets' win total set at for 2024, per the MLB win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The Mets' win total is listed at 81.5.

Will New York go over or under their win total? Let's look at the support for each side.

All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published. nERD via numberFire. Projections via FanGraphs.

New York Mets Win Total Odds

New York Mets Over/Under 81.5 Wins

  • Over: -105
  • Under: -115

Why the Mets Could Win Over 81.5 Games (-105)

After totaling the 11th-fewest runs while giving up the 13th-most runs in the 2023 season, the Mets had a lot of work to do in the offseason.

New York had a star-studded starting pitcher rotation entering 2023 headlined by Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. The Mets opted to blow it up mid-season, trading Scherzer to the Texas Rangers and Verlander to the Houston Astros.

The starting pitcher rotation was something that New York had to address in free agency. After posting a 2.98 earned run average (ERA) in his rookie season, Kodai Senga has established himself as the Mets' ace going forward. The second fiddle for 2024 looks to be Luis Severino, who inked a one-year, $13 million contract with New York.

Severino was a two-time All Star in eight seasons with the New York Yankees. If he can tap back into this level of play, the starting rotation could be just fine. Jose Quintana also impressed with a 3.57 ERA in 13 starts with the Mets last season.

Perhaps the biggest supporting point for the over is the batting order. The Mets made a splash signing a few days ago by acquiring All-Star designated hitter J.D. Martinez. After launching over 30 home runs while tallying over 100 RBIs in 2023, his impact should be felt in the lineup.

One could also argue that New York got uncharacteristic seasons from Pete Alonso (.217 batting average) and Starling Marte (.248 batting average) in 2023. These were career-low marks for Alonso and Marte.

Getting improved play from Alonso and Marte would also bring big boosts. FanGraphs' Depth Chart projections are forecasting a .247 batting average for Alonso and .263 for Marte.

New York is also projected to record the 14th-most runs in the MLB for the 2024 season.

Why the Mets Could Win Under 81.5 Games (-115)

Even with potential improvement for the batting order, I cannot overlook the pitching concerns. I'm on the same side as the public; the under looks like the best bet. According to FanDuel's MLB playoff odds, the Mets are +180 to make the playoffs. As a borderline postseason squad, going over 81 wins looks unlikely.

Senga certainly performed at a high level last year, but his 1.220 WHIP felt rather high for a 2.98 ERA. According to the MLB's Savant, he ranked in the bottom 39% in hard-hit percentage and bottom 49% in average exit velocity. Senga's numbers could go up a bit in his second season.

Also, there's clear concern with the signing of Severino. He's dealt with various injuries since 2019. Severino missed the entire 2020 season due to Tommy John surgery and appeared in only four games in 2021 after returning from the injury. He seemed to be back to form in 2022 with a 3.18 ERA but followed that with a career-worst year last season.

At this point, do we really know what we are getting with Severino? He's dealt with various injuries and displayed inconsistencies. There's a reason that he was signed to only a one-year contract.

While New York at least made the effort to improve their pitching, it was probably not enough. The Mets are projected to give up the 11th-most runs in the upcoming season.

I'm not going to act like this is an elite batting order either. The unit finished with the 12th-worst on-base percentage (OBP) last season.

Alonso can be feast or famine with his slugging. Francisco Lindor and the newly-acquired Harrison Bader are excellent defensive players who can stumble at the plate sometimes. There are also simply weak hitters in this lineup, including Brett Baty (.210 career batting average).

I do not believe that the Mets are close to contending again. At best, New York might be able to sneak into the postseason, but I don't like their chances. Under 81.5 wins could be the best bet for the Mets.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.