MLB.TV Free Game of the Day Betting Picks for Phillies-Nationals (4/5/24)

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33

The lengthy MLB season can cause some games to get lost in the shuffle, but MLB.TV provides fans with a Free Game of the Day throughout the regular season that can also be seen on FanDuel TV+ here, or also available on Apple TV, Roku, Android TV, Fire TV, and FanDuel Sportsbook.

Why not add to the viewing excitement by getting in on the MLB odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook?

For this article, we've got you covered with a betting guide for each Free Game of the Day. With that, let's take a look at some of the best bets for today's free game.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Phillies vs. Nationals Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

  • Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
  • Spread: Phillies -1.5 (-113)
  • Total: 8.0
  • Moneyline:
    • Phillies: -186
    • Nationals: +156

Best Bet

Over 8.0 (-115)

The Philadelphia Phillies (2-4) will visit the Washington Nationals (2-4) for today's Free Game of the Day.

With Aaron Nola on the bump for Philly, Patrick Corbin taking the mound for Washington, and a pair of unconvincing bullpens, I think the over is a worthwhile target.

Nola was terrible in his season debut. He let up 11 hits, six earned runs, and two home runs through just 4.1 IP, albeit against the Atlanta Braves. But he was somewhat shaky last year, too. In his 2023 bid, he posted a 4.46 ERA, 3.75 SIERA, and allowed 1.49 HR/9. To lefties, he gave up a .314 wOBA, .444 SLG, 1.66 HR/9, and a 41.9% fly-ball rate.

Lefties C.J. Abrams, Joey Gallo, and Jesse Winker will all have great matchups against Nola, so I'd look for them to help get the Nats on the board early.

While I think Nola can get knocked up a bit, Patrick Corbin's fate could be much worse.

To put it simply, Corbin was one of the worst starting pitchers in the league last year. In 2023, he put up a 5.20 ERA (third-worst), 5.01 SIERA (second-worst), and struggled with just a 15.7% strikeout rate (lowest).

Any righties -- including Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos, and Whit Merrifield -- could be a problem for Corbin. Last season, he surrendered a .301 average, .501 SLG, and 1.79 HR/9 to right-handed bats.

Beyond Corbin, Washington's relief could struggle against one of the more intimidating lineups in baseball. The Nationals' bullpen suffered a 5.02 ERA last season (third-worst). It doesn't help that Washington's relief was responsible for pitching 4.2 innings in yesterday's game.

This season is quite young, but Philadelphia's bullpen has been treacherous in the first week of play. In 23.2 IP they've ceded 23 runs, good for the worst relief ERA in the majors.

numberFire's game projections expect the total to run over. They have the Phillies winning this one by a score of 5.46-4.29, good for a 9.75-run total.

Best Props

Jesse Winker To Record 2+ Bases (+200)

We didn't see much of Jesse Winker last season, but a bounce-back year could be in store for the former All-Star.

Winker has gone 6-for-14 at the plate through five games. He's 5-for-10 against righties and could do some damage against Nola.

As mentioned, Nola's 2023 numbers against left-handed bats include a .314 wOBA, .444 SLG, 1.66 HR/9, and a 41.9% fly-ball rate.

It'd be impossible to speak highly of Winker's 2023 bid, but in his career, he has posted a .281 BA, .856 OPS, 130 wRC+, and a 37.9% hard-hit rate when holding the platoon advantage.

Winker can hit for power, and though it's a small sample, we can be encouraged by his early success. He's recorded a hit in every game where he has received a plate appearance and notched at least two total bases in two out of four of those contests.

With a trend and matchup that could be on his side, I'm happy to take a chance on the player who has the longest odds in this market.

Alec Bohm To Hit a Home Run (+600)

Alec Bohm may not be the first home run candidate who comes to mind with this Phillies team, but he is set up to hit his first dinger of the season tonight.

Patrick Corbin is vulnerable against right-handed bats who can hit for power. In 2023, he allowed a .501 SLG, 1.79 HR/9, and 16.8% HR/FB ratio to righties while striking them out at an abysmal 15.4% rate.

If we're looking for Bohm to go yard, he better be going up against a lefty.

Last season, he mashed the ball against southpaws, posting a .303 BA, .594 SLG, 142 wRC+, 41.7% fly-ball rate, 21.9% HR/FB ratio, and a 39.4% hard-hit rate.

He's gone 3-for-9 against lefties this season but has yet to hit one over the fence. With +600 odds available, I'm willing to bet that changes tonight.

Get in on the MLB action today! All FanDuel customers get a 30% Profit Boost Token to use on a 3+ leg Same Game Parlay MLB wager happening April 5th. See the promotions page for more information.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.