MLB.TV Free Game of the Day Betting Picks for Padres-Brewers (4/17/24)

Annie Nader•@ANader33

13d

The lengthy MLB season can cause some games to get lost in the shuffle, but MLB.TV provides fans with a Free Game of the Day throughout the regular season that can also be seen on FanDuel TV+ here, or also available on Apple TV, Roku, Android TV, Fire TV, and FanDuel Sportsbook.

Why not add to the viewing excitement by getting in on the MLB odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook?

For this article, we've got you covered with a betting guide for each Free Game of the Day. With that, let's take a look at some of the best bets for today's free game.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Padres vs. Brewers Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
Spread: Padres -1.5 (+146)
Total: 8.5
Moneyline:
- Padres: -118
- Brewers: +100

Best Bet

Brewers Over 4.5 Runs (+114)

The San Diego Padres (11-9) will look to complete the series sweep against the Milwaukee Brewers (10-6) this afternoon, but I'd look for the Brew Crew to go down swinging if they go down.

Although Milwaukee is in the midst of a three-game losing streak, they come in as one of the best offensive teams in baseball. They tout a .284 batting average (second-best), .460 SLG (second-best), 125 wRC+ (tied for second-best), and .170 ISO (fourth-best).

Further, the Brewers are averaging 1.5 home runs per game (second-most) and have stolen 23 bags (third-most) this season. This has allowed them to put up 6.06 runs per game (second-most), so I'm confident they can score at least five runs in today's contest.

Michael King will be on the bump for San Diego. King has been fine this season, giving up nine earned runs through 19.1 IP -- good for a 4.19 ERA. But his 6.42 expected ERA and 5.04 SIERA aren't as pretty.

Last Friday, King surrendered a whopping four home runs through five innings. He's struggling with a 2.79 HR/9 ratio, and Milwaukee is capable of getting one over on the righty.

This season, the Brewers are rocking with a .297 BA (second-best), .367 OBP (second-best), and 131 wRC+ (third-best) against righties, all while striking out at just a 21.4% rate (11th-lowest).

Christian Yelich (lower-back strain) has been placed on the 10-day IL. Milwaukee could really use him for today's game, but William Contreras and Willy Adames have been off to stellar starts while Sal Frelick and Brice Turang are in for a friendly matchup against King.

Though King was awesome in relief last season and has posted a 28.1% K% since the start of 2023, he's hit a few more roadblocks as a starter. Past King, San Diego's bullpen has posted a 4.37 ERA (12th-worst) and a 4.63 xFIP (eighth-worst).

Best Prop Bet

Sal Frelick To Record 2+ Bases (+120)

Frelick has recorded at least two bases in 7 out of 15 games this season and could find success in today's matchup.

His 2024 numbers against righties include a .321 BA and 116 wRC+. Dating back to last season, Frelick has posted a .278 BA (highest on team) and 104 wRC+ against righties -- all while striking out at just a 17.3% rate (lowest).

King is striking out lefties at a dismal 13.0% rate but is striking out righties at a towering 31.0% rate. He's faced more lefties than righties this season, so I would not be surprised to see Frelick give him a tough time in this one.

I'd also consider Sal Frelick To Record A Run at +100, as he is set to lead off. King has let up a .457 OBP to lefties while Frelick has totaled 11 runs so far this campaign.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.