MLB

MLB Home Run Leader Odds: Mike Trout Is Off to a Red-Hot Start

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
MLB Home Run Leader Odds: Mike Trout Is Off to a Red-Hot Start

It's Dinger Tuesday at FanDuel Sportsbook, and what better way to celebrate than checking out the 2024 MLB Home Run leader odds market?

Entering the day, Mookie Betts, Tyler O'Neill, Mike Trout, and Marcell Ozuna have all hit five home runs, good for the most in the MLB.

But it's merely April, and we've yet to see some of the league's biggest stars heat up. With that, let's take a look at the 2024 Home Runs leader odds and see which players could claim the title.

Home Run Leader Odds

Player
MLB Home Runs Leader Odds
Aaron Judge+360
Yordan Alvarez+550
Kyle Schwarber+950
Matt Olson+1100
Mike Trout+1100
Shohei Ohtani+1200
Pete Alonso+1200
View Full Table

Aaron Judge, Yankees (+360)

This market is loaded with power hitters who have the potential to lead the league in long balls. But will anyone outdo Aaron Judge?

In 2022, Judge blasted 62 home runs for the New York Yankees, which was 16 more homers than the next-best player that year.

He hit 37 home runs in just 106 games last season, but a healthy version of Judge could have him inching toward those 2022 numbers.

Through 11 games, Judge has hit just two balls out of the park, but he's still been making great contact. His 46.7% hard-hit rate ranks 10th among all qualified players.

FanGraphs' rest-of-season projections, which prorate a player's current season stats to account for the remaining games in the regular season, are quite bullish on backing Judge in this market.

They forecast Judge to hit 47 homers through 143 games. The next-best player in this projection is expected to hit just 40 home runs.

Matt Olson, Braves (+1100)

Last season's home run king could make a go at a repeat.

Matt Olson won out in this market handedly last season, hitting 54 home runs, seven more than the next-best player.

He's hit three home runs through nine games this season while six doubles (second-most in MLB) prove that Olson's power tendencies aren't going anywhere.

Before 2023, Olson had yet to crack 40 home runs. But his play thus far indicates that we shouldn't expect much of a drop-off from the 30-year-old.

FanGraphs' projections anticipate Olson to hit 40 home runs through 149 games this season, which serves as the next-best mark after Judge.

If Olson were to repeat as the homer king in 2024, he'd be the first player lead baseball in jacks in back-to-back years since Jose Bautista in the 2010 and 2011 seasons.

Judge is an intimidating presence in this market, but few players have been as available as Olson has. He's had perfect 162-game attendance in each of his last two seasons while he played 156 games in the year before those two.

For someone as durable and reliable as Olson, these +1100 odds are worth a look.

Mike Trout, Angels (+1100)

Could the antithesis of Olson change his ways this season?

Mike Trout has not played more than 140 games in a single season since 2016.

His Hall of Fame-worthy career has been marred by injuries in his time with the dreary Los Angeles Angels franchise, but his 2024 bid thus far is reminding everyone who he is.

Through 10 games, Trout has already hammered home five dingers, tied for the most in the MLB.

His .459 ISO ranks second among all MLB players (behind only Tyler O'Neill). But perhaps most encouraging is Trout's 65.5% fly-ball rate (second-highest) -- when he's not clearing the bases, he's at least coming pretty close.

Trout has yet to claim a home-run leader title despite being a player who should always be a top candidate. FanGraphs' projections expect him to 39 home runs this season (tied for fourth-most) albeit through just 138 games.

If you told me Trout would exceed 140 games this season, I would quantify backing him in this market as the far-and-away best value option on the board. But given his injury history, this +1100 number is likely pretty fair.

Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees (+10000)

I'm throwing in a longshot option since I think Giancarlo Stanton's 100-to-1 odds are at least worth mentioning.

Stanton was terrible in 2023, posting a .191 batting average and hitting 24 home runs through 101 games. He's yet to have a 40-plus homer season since joining the Yankees in 2018.

Injuries and slumps have been the death of Stanton as of late, but the guy who has 405 career homers to his name can still hit.

Three home runs through nine games has Stanton off to a solid start this year. His .306 ISO (18th) and 40.0% hard-hit rate could suggest a bounce-back season is on the horizon.

It's hard to make a case for Stanton when there are so many legit sluggers in this market. But then again, we're talking about the player who hit a league-leading 59 home runs in the healthiest season of his career. If Stanton can stay healthy, he's an interesting dart throw.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.