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MLB Home Run Derby Best Bets for 2026
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Home Run Derby 2026: Best Bets & Champion Picks
Full 8-man field · Ranked picks · All odds FanDuel
📖 Field Overview
This year's Derby returns to a swing-based format with no time limit for the first time since 2014, and it's set at Citizens Bank Park — home turf for two of the eight entrants, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. Schwarber enters as the board favorite, leading all of MLB with 32 home runs in the first half, but he's dealt with lower back tightness that had him in and out of the Phillies' lineup as recently as a couple weeks ago — a real risk factor for an event built entirely around max-effort swings.
Junior Caminero arrives with unfinished business: he was runner-up to Cal Raleigh in last year's Derby, and at just 23 years old he's chasing the record for youngest-ever champion. He's also riding the hottest stretch of any hitter in the sport right now — 8 home runs in his last 7 games, including a career-long 463-foot blast, and AL Player of the Week honors along the way.
Munetaka Murakami is the field's biggest wild card — elite underlying metrics (99th percentile hard-hit rate and barrel rate, 98th percentile exit velocity) that scream Derby success, but he only returned from a right hamstring strain three days before the event. Ben Rice, a first-time participant, is worth noting given the last two Derby champions (Raleigh and Teoscar Hernández) were also competing for the first time.
📋 Full Field — FanDuel Odds
⭐ Best Bets — Ranked
The clearest thesis in the field: he leads baseball with 32 homers, he's swinging in his own ballpark, and he's already shown he thrives under exactly this kind of pressure — three home runs on three swings to win last year's All-Star Game swing-off. The one real concern is recent lower back tightness, worth monitoring but not enough to move off the top pick.
Eight home runs in his last seven games, a career-long 463-foot blast, and a runner-up finish last year that's clearly left him motivated. At 23, he's chasing the record for youngest-ever Derby champion — genuinely live value at a longer price than the favorite.
His underlying metrics are the best in the field — 99th percentile hard-hit rate and barrel rate, 98th percentile exit velocity — and 13 of his 20 homers this season have been "no-doubters" that would clear the fence in all 30 parks. The catch: he's just three days removed from a hamstring strain, a genuine red flag for a max-effort event.
He's actually done this before — won the 2018 Derby in his own home ballpark, beating none other than Schwarber in the final that year. He's already closing in on last season's home run total, and only three players in history have won inside their home park. A genuine value price for a proven big-stage performer.
Worth noting: both of the past two Derby champions were competing in the event for the first time. Rice has 51 home runs since the start of 2025 and elite exit-velocity and barrel metrics — a real longshot value play at four figures.
All odds FanDuel Sportsbook · 2026 Home Run Derby Champion: Kyle Schwarber +290 · Junior Caminero +400 · Munetaka Murakami +550 · Jac Caglianone +700 · Jordan Walker +700 · Bryce Harper +950 · Ben Rice +1000 · Willson Contreras +1100 · Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia PA · Swing-based format, no time limit · Broadcast on Netflix · Must be 21+ · Gambling Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER
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Which bets stand out to you for tonight's Derby? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's Home Run Derby betting odds to see the full menu of options.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
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