MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday 4/17/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday 4/17/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies, 6:05 p.m. ET

Phillies -1.5 (-108)

To close out a series in the "City of Brotherly Love," the Philadelphia Phillies have an early evening meeting with the Colorado Rockies this Wednesday.

In 2024, Philadelphia is currently in second place of the NL East while the Rockies are once again in the league cellar. As a major issue, Colorado is striking out at a top-five frequency. Of course, it is no secret that going down on strikes consistently neutralizes scoring opportunities.

The projected starters for this contest at Citizens Bank Park are Ryan Feltner (COL) and southpaw Cristopher Sanchez (PHI). The Rox have not been a good offensive side by any metric this year, but they have been even worse versus left-handed pitching (.694 OPS).

Sanchez has posted a respectable 3.88 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) in 2024. On the other side, Feltner is yielding a 1.31 WHIP in 2024 after cycling between the Majors and Minors these past three seasons.

The Fightin' Phils are a quality candidate for a run-line wager (-1.5) on Wednesday. numberFire echoes support for Philly in this market, as their model has the home side winning by a score of 5.47-3.92 here. That equates to a 68.66% winning likelihood in this market.

Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays, 6:50 p.m. ET

Over 8.0 Runs (-110)

Out at Tropicana Field, the Los Angeles Angels and Tampa Bay Rays will play the third of a four-game series. In totality, Wednesday will be the sixth meeting of 2024 between these respective sides.

I see value on over eight runs in Tampa Bay. Immediately, we know this game will at least be played in optimal hitting conditions (indoors). From there, the Rays have churned out 4.18 runs per game while the Angels have been slightly better at 4.63 runs per game.

Notably, Tampa's pitching has left much to be desired in the current campaign. They've had an especially tough time in home contests this year, allowing 5.27 runs per game when playing at the Trop. Still, that is the sort of statistic that an over bettor loves to see.

Wednesday's starting pitching matchup in St. Petersburg will feature Zack Littell (3.90 SIERA) and lefty Reid Detmers (2.36 SIERA). Both hurlers have been sharp in 2024, but perhaps these lineups can produce just enough offense to go over eight combined runs.

Based on team OPS, the Halos are in the top half of MLB right now. Despite losing Shohei Ohtani last offseason, LAA is currently second in the AL West standings.

Even-numbered baseball totals without a hook -- such as the one we see here -- work great for over bettors. Since games on the diamond cannot end in a tie, "over" will be a mathematical winner if the score should reflect 4-4 at any point on Wednesday. In that instance, the score will eventually be forced out of the eight-run push zone.

Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET

Over 9.5 Runs (-110)

For another American League clash, let us head out to Fenway Park.

The Cleveland Guardians and Boston Red Sox are in the midst of a four-game series. Early on, both teams appear capable of strong campaigns in 2024, but who has the edge on Wednesday?

Rather than choosing a specific side, let's get back to the totals market for this contest. Going against 9.5 runs, I still like the over.

The probable pitchers here are Ben Lively and Tanner Houck. Lively will be making his Guardians debut after returning to MLB last year; he spent 2019-2021 in the KBO. For the home team, Houck is 2-1 in 2024, but he is surrendering a 47.2% Statcast hard-hit rate, which is alarmingly high.

Cleveland and Boston both operate with solid offensive attacks. The Guardians have notched 5.44 runs per game behind a collective .734 OPS. In terms of scoring, the Red Sox are not too far behind, yielding 4.24 runs per game.

Fortunately for over backers, this meeting will be hosted at Fenway. MLB's oldest active venue offers many charms and oddities, but just about all of them favor hitters compared to pitchers. The famed "Green Monster" sits just 310 feet from home plate while in-play foul territory is minimal. Overall, Baseball Savant gives Boston's historic field a 108 Park Factor score through the past three seasons, which falls only under Coors Field in Denver.

Back at numberFire, over 9.5 runs is viewed as the wisest play for this bid. According to their MLB game projections, the BoSox are expected to win by an estimated score of 5.37-4.48. That presents a 9.85 runs, which obviously supports the over.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.