MLB Betting Picks for Monday 4/8/24

1mo

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals, 7:45 p.m. ET

Phillies Moneyline (-106)

The Philadelphia Phillies have entered 2024 after consecutive seasons reaching at least the NLCS. They are once again a team with authentic title aspirations, but the same can be said about the St. Louis Cardinals. Conversely, the Red Birds are looking to bounce back from poor results in 2023, as St. Louis is an organization with lofty standards.

So far, both the Phils and Cards have started the year in lukewarm fashion. Philadelphia is 4-5 while St. Louie is a tick better at 5-5. However, Philly is working with a more prolific offense than Busch Stadium's home team.

In 2024, the Fightin' Phils still boast sluggers like Bryce Harper (.998 OPS), Kyle Schwarber (.356 xwOBA) and J.T. Realmuto (.300). As a team, Philadelphia is also getting on base more (.307 wOBA) and striking out less (24.4 K%) compared to the Cardinals (.291 wOBA, 25.3 K%).

On Monday evening in the Lou, the projected starters are righties Spencer Turnbull (PHI) and Miles Mikolas (STL). Given the presence of prevalent left-handed hitters in Philly's lineup, such as Harper, Schwarber, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh, I love this matchup versus Mikolas for the road side.

numberFire also views the Phillies moneyline (-106 odds) as a valuable play for Monday. With favorable pricing at FanDuel Sportsbook, numberFire's game projections give Philadelphia a 51.6% chance at victory for the series opener in St. Louis.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET

Diamondbacks -1.5 (-120)

The U.S. territories of Arizona and Colorado have blossomed a fine sporting rivalry together in recent years. Whether it is Phoenix Suns-Denver Nuggets or Arizona Wildcats-Colorado Buffaloes, the action is regularly contentious/personal these days.

On the baseball diamond, this diagonal-border rivalry has been quite one-sided lately. To commence the 2024 MLB season, the Colorado Rockies were bullied around by the Arizona Diamondbacks in three of four games in downtown Phoenix. The D-backs plated 32 runs in that series. Looking back to 2023, Arizona won 10 of 13 contests with the Rox.

With the venue now flipped to Coors Field, Monday's probable pitchers are Zac Gallen and Kyle Freeland, making it an Opening Day rematch. For the previous meeting at Chase Field, Freeland was torched by the D-backs for 10 earned runs and a loss. Overall, Freeland has compiled a 5.67 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) while allowing a 54.8% Statcast hard-hit rate. I don't think that will translate to positive things for his first start back in the Mile High.

To the contrary, Gallen has been sharp through two starts this season, inducing a 50% ground-ball rate. As a tough streak to bring into Denver, Gallen has not given up a home run in 2024. Regardless, I like Gallen to outduel Freeland for the second time in a dozen days.

Arizona has thrived in the batter's box all season long, as they currently boast the National League's fifth-highest team OPS (.778). The Diamondbacks are powered by Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel, Eugenio Suarez and Christian Walker -- all of whom have collected at least 10 hits in as many games.

I think this D-backs group rolls over the Rockies at Coors Field's high elevation. With Arizona at 7-3 on the run line so far this year, let's get aggressive here and lay the 1.5 runs (-120 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook) on the Snakes.

Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels, 9:38 p.m. ET

Rays Moneyline (-144)

With an attempt to end smoothly and simply, I'll be playing another road moneyline. Out in California's Orange County, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Tampa Bay Rays for an early week series.

The Angels are still looking for a definitive direction in the post-Shohei Ohtani era. They've played to a 5-4 record since losing MLB's most global superstar, but they will certainly miss Ohtani tonight when taking on Rays hurler Zach Eflin. The right-handed pitcher is 1-1 on the year but displays a respectable 1.083 WHIP.

Of course, the Halos still have a generational talent in Mike Trout. However, he is not getting much offensive help from fellow veteran Anthony Rendon (.147 OBP). As a group, LAA isn't producing many extra base hits -- the Angels' team slugging percentage (.363) ranks 18th out of 30 ball clubs.

Across the diamond, Tampa Bay has gotten off to a slow-ish start in 2024. The Rays are 5-5 overall but showcase a -9 run differential. However, after two straight wins at Coors Field (featuring 11 runs scored), perhaps Tampa has found their stride on offense. Led by Isaac Paredes (.830 OPS) and Jose Siri (.400 OBP), I like the Rays' chances in Anaheim.

The Angels will send out Tyler Anderson to toe the rubber on Monday night. Anderson was great in his lone start of 2024, but he is coming off a season wherein he allowed a 5.23 SIERA. In his most recent outing against Tampa Bay (August 2023), Anderson surrendered five earned runs at Angel Stadium.

Per numberFire's MLB game projections, the Rays are estimated to win on Monday by a score of 5.43-3.89. Their model also implies a 64.5% shot at victory, which echoes strong support for Tampa Bay's moneyline (-144 odds) tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.